With insight seasons can develop something of a narrative, a story that develops amongst the randomness and chaos that is a succeeding of 38 chaotic and somewhat random events. The last 3 have felt like deep novels compared to the small book novellas that may exist for other teams. For Everton at least, a story of chaos, confusion, betrayal, injustice and ultimately redemption. This season is potentially the 10th season where relegation challenges existed were ultimately overcome. One of the human biases we all exhibit is the desire to generalise from what has proceeded. We often struggle, but in the end, we pull through to survive through a mixture of grit, determination and overwhelming fan support in the face of perilous adversity. It makes for a great story, though the truth may be slightly more complex, Everton could have shown many of those things and still been relegated, probabilistically speaking it seems hard to fathom they haven’t. However, for the purposes of the history books the season will go down as another Houdini act where we prevailed.
It’s a story of ultimately 4 footballing acts, but within that context there is a sub plot of Machiavellian deceit and dishonesty from a body that is supposedly there to legislate against that. We start badly, then go on an incredibly run, then have a hopeless run after Christmas before the final redemptive arc is found. Given act 2 largely predates a bizarre decision to requisition points from us (in a case filled with “legal errors”) and the 3rd act largely follows the fall out of that, with the startling 2nd punishment for largely the same offence (breaching the widely held Double Jeopardy protocol) it is hard not to factor this in. Chances were being snatched at and fluffed on almost a weekly basis, and the calmness of being comfortably above the relegation zone seemed to be discarded. It would be wrong to say it was the only factor, but the nervousness that fed into the players was certain a factor. How many more points may have been achieved if the PL didn’t waste 3 months enforcing an onerous 10-point deduction that was filled with “legal errors”?
This sense is re-enforced when you consider the consider the performance levels and results following the Burnley win, which effectively kept the team up (and in reality, gave some breathing space). Calmer performances have come, better finishing has been seen and then results have ticked upwards accordingly. There is an interesting narrative about how many more points could have been achieved, had the PL not bizarrely deciding punishing the victims (fans/players) rather than the culprits (managements and owners) would have been taken, or if they would have corrected their errors over the severity of the punishment earlier.
We will never know exactly how history repeats itself. But Everton had 27 points from 17 games. 27 points could quite possibly be enough to survive this season. There is every chance that Sean Dyche would have acquired the points total required for pre-Christmas. For this, and the following performance, he deserves enormous credit. At the start of the season, I predicted a season where we got between 45-50 points. This was before knowing we would have points taken. That was a variable that I wouldn’t have been able to factor in. The rationale behind 45-50 points was largely down to the manager and his ability to avoid 2 onerous points deductions becoming the story re-enforced this perception. He has done very well to keep a sense of hope when it times it felt the football establishment were pursuing a vendetta against the club. To avoid the emotion of either extreme seething anger or hopelessness would not have been easy, but he managed to have settled on determination and focus.
The club in the previous seasons achieved 36 and 39 points so 48 points (as things stand) is a substantial improvement, and indicative of a team that is a solid, mid table side. If you exclude the first games of Benitez’s tenure to the point Dyche comes in, Everton have 44 points from 54 games, against the 48 from 37 Dyche has achieved this season (or 69 from 55 games since he came in). This is also within a context of very little money spent, and better players (Gordon, Iwobi, Mina and to a degree Gray) leaving. Ancelotti achieved a similar uptick in performance, as did Koeman briefly, but both were backed very heavily.
It is a significant uplift in performance, and Dyche is not only a much better fit than either Benitez or Lampard, he is just a much better manager than either and hasn’t been given the credit he deserves through his career. That Burnley, who spent over 100m (most of it net of sales) have been relegated with 24 points in their first full season without him, and were relegated in the season they sacked him further underlines his own performance level. I always had a begrudging respect for Dyche, but watching his teams closely, even without the spoonsful of unique context of the season, has only heightened this.
For a club that has specialised in appalling, baffling decision making, the choice of Dyche is a rare good decision. The decision to stick with him in part because they had to financially has underlined that. Had he been sacked after Chelsea, or prior to the Burnley came, could we with any confidence say another Benitez/Lampard type manager comes in that the same results follow? Unfortunately, fan sentiment is often too reactive, too extreme in the face of short-term blips which hinder medium to longer term progress. Essentially, if you keep changing managers, styles of play and recruits each summer, players lack the consistency to develop. It is young players who will suffer the most within this context, which for a club like Everton who have to develop players is especially damaging.
Having listened to Dyche speak on the coaches view, and had that reinforced in after game interviews, his philosophy at times can be simple, but it is also logical, uncomplicated and effective. To me he is a man who is acutely aware of limitations faced by coaches, particularly those operating at the lower end of the table with restricted budget and his solutions are tailored towards this reality. Some people may look down on this as pragmatism, as not having a longer term thinking or that it is a lack of imagination in his thinking or tactical inability that leads him to play this why. I would posit that it is none of the above, but a concrete analysis of a concrete situation and an honest assessment of how to make improvements for the organisation he has.
Most of his belief seems to stem from the basis of avoiding mistakes, rather than trying to do something brilliant. This is a worthwhile life philosophy, invariably increases in performance comes from reducing doing stupid things, rather than moments of genius. This is doubly so when you have a limited team in terms of raw ability. He also manifests these principles sensibly, avoiding losing possession in dangerous areas, maximising set pieces, increasing the squad’s fitness, filling the team with bigger/stronger players and focussing on effectively defending your box (with blocks/clearances). If this was distilled down, it would be as Gary Neville said after the Merseyside Derby, Everton won in both boxes.
A number of games this season, Everton have bullied teams in that manner and have been a little unlucky not to have more points. The teams we have put out contain Branthwaite who is 6 ft 4+, Tarkowski who is very dominant aerially, DCL who has a great leap, Doucoure who is over 6 ft. There has also been a smattering of Onana (6 ft 5), Godfrey (6 ft+) but also McNeil and Garner who are over 6 ft. Garner, McNeil and at times Pickford have given the team excellent delivery and sides struggle to cope. In the Merseyside Derby Everton finish with 3 CB’s on the pitch, but also Calvert Lewin and Onana who both win aerial duals at a similar rate to Centre backs, so effectively 5 CB’s. It may not be well liked, but set pieces pose a strong opportunity to put the ball in opponents’ penalty areas (17 times versus Liverpool) which can be a lot easier than chance creation from open play. There is something of a bias against utilising such an approach, that it’s cheating or “parasite football” but the reality is it is indicative of effective, pragmatic coaching that underpins Dyche.
Alongside the size of players, he put a big emphasis on getting the players fit in pre-season. The phrase “Dyche fit” emerged, to some consternation, but clearly standards were being raised. It was always indicative to me, that Burnley under Dyche tended to maintain and mostly improve performance as the season progressed. Clearly the more rigorous approach to fitness would pay dividends as the seasons went on. The team is also well organised without the ball, and aggressive where it needs to be. When you add in well organised and fit, to a physically imposing team you invariably pick up results in the league.
It’s worth noting that the results are not a fluke. For most of the season Everton have underperformed (quite significantly) their Expected goals (Xg) and expected points (Xp). With the 5 straight home wins, this gap has begun to close, but the gap still exists. Everton’s expected points on a game-by-game basis is 59, and if you factor in post shot XP (measuring shooting quality) is at 54 points. Some of the underperformance is down to poor finishing, but most of it remains down to bad luck (and goalkeepers such as Areola, Sa and Leno producing season best performances against Everton). This measure is normally quite predictive of a new season, and typically sides who underperform tend to close the gap the following season, which bodes well.
While the majority of improvements have been from big, quite structural changes there have been some subtle differences. Dwight McNeil’s role has adapted through the season, with him operating less as a conventional touchline hugging winger, but more as a hybrid inside forward player who increasingly drifts in field and takes up spaces of a number 10 position. This has helped him unleash powerful shots, but also begin to start threading balls through for forward players. He has become more focussed on assists than goals and shows some flexibility within Dyche’s system. As per Understat, who compile records since 2014, McNeil’s expected assists per 90 minutes is as high as any player on record (ahead of James and Barkley) which given the goals he scores, and defensive work he does is a big positive.
Another big positive has been the improvement of younger players, which in no small part has been down to the aforementioned combination of consistency in the manager and the kore intensive methods being employed on the training pitch. It was noticeable to me, in recent game’s to see the aggression, power and quick decision making of Chermiti and Dobbin compared to the start of the season. Training day in and day out with players such as Tarkowski, Coleman, Young or other experienced players, operating in an aggressive and physical way will inevitably improve those younger players as if you do not make your decision quickly, you will lose the ball. Alongside those 2, Garner, McNeil, Branthwaite and Mykolenko have all shown clear improvement in the 18 months that Dyche has been in charge. Beto has also started to show more strength when coming onto the pitch. They are not necessarily becoming different players, but they are more aggressive, stronger, quicker and more consistent.
The dressing feels a good one. Dyche rightly called them out following the Chelsea hammering, and they have not lost since, conceding just 1 goal in 5 games, winning 4 of them. Tarkowski, Young, Coleman and Gueye have provided some composure and wise older heads at times in critical moments. There is a case that given the likely ongoing turbulence there is a case to maintain as many of those players as possible.
Another big takeaway has been the performance of Dominic Calvert Lewin. In games where he has started (and completed over 37 minutes) Everton have 37 points from 24 games, when he doesn’t start Everton have 11 points from 13. It is effectively the difference between a relegation threatened team, versus one that finishes in the top 8. It is no surprise at all, that the two seasons Everton have struggled, and coincided with DCL’s most injury ravaged seasons where he has not been himself. The goals haven’t followed, but were they too, that differential in performance at the upper end would likely grow further. You effectively have a player with the aerial dominance of Chris Wood/Duncan Ferguson but with speed to run channels and link play. If Everton can keep him fit, get him scoring and ideally resolve his contract they stand a good chance of continuing to progress up the league.
So, the conclusion is that it is probably the best the team has felt in over two years. The chaos that engulfed the club after Carlo left is beginning to show signs of calm and there appear some shoots of recovery. The Season is one where objectives have been met, and arguably bettered, in the most telling of circumstances. The set piece win against Liverpool is hugely welcomed (as football ultimately exists in moments, rather than the stats I try to provide). The manager feels a logical fit for where we are now, and where we will likely be going over the forthcoming period, and the question will be, if we keep improving can he continue to adapt with it. The conventional view would be no, but given what he has achieved to date, it would be unfair to at least remain agnostic on that question, and allow him first dibs on the chance to show this.