Yes interesting points. Just some thoughts:
1) Most investments should focus on profit. Football seems to be valued on capital accumulation, which is odd, as they dont fit the profile of businesses that benefit from this (essentially, high margin, low capex, tech start ups). Football is far removed from this.
2) Football has had a long bull market, but this could start to slow in terms of its CAGR rate. I think that's why Glazier/FSG are looking to sell (or partially).
3) Businessss that are sustainable work, but honestly even the better businesses above are barely sustainable. Wages to turnover is often 70%+ and there arent that many new revenues streams for them (which is partly what motivated ESL).
It's actually quite hate for those teams, as they have to carry a huge wage bill, which requires top 4 qualification to sustain it.
4) In terms of us, I'm not sure what the wrong type of investor would see in us. We have no assets, we have an unprofitable business etc. I would imagine we would suit an owner who felt he could accept some short term losses for longer term gain by radically improving the management. Theres a lot of decent fundamentals (name, history and new stadium) but short term challenges. Similar to what FSG did at Liverpool as it were.
If course it's not that easy, and honestly, I wouldnt take that bet on. If I had cash, I'd buy LFC/MUFC and sweat the asset, however unpopular it seems. Or in all honesty, I'd invest in a sector that produced stable profits.
Take on board what you are saying mate, a lot comes down to interpretation and slant, my take would be:
1) You don't invest in football for profit from the business, you wont make any, sure profit is desirable and assists in meeting costs and funding the club, but its not enough to justify the scale of investment in a football club. The more profit, the more you can reinvest into the club to make it better, raise its profile and let it appreciate. There are two type of investors, one like the Glazers, Kronkes and FSF, who will invest and run the club through its own revenue, grow it if they can and sit on the investment, let it appreciate and sell at a profit - this is a long term aim. Its means you dont have to put any capital into the club and the club looks after itself, you manage it well and let appreciate over time - their profit is in the investment and growing its value not on the business profit. Second type are the likes of City, Newcastle and Chelsea under Abromovich. To a degree arguably sports washing so money no object, but also an investment in a club is used to diversify a wider portfolio of investment as they are heavily exposed to fossil fuels and this will waine, so they are looking to spread and diversify investment and buy legitimacy. They will try with huge resources to grow a club, make is self sufficient, build their own legitimacy and profile, but for a time the club are utterly dependent on them, before becoming self sufficient. City and Chelsea washes its own face now more or less, in a different stratosphere to what they were historically, more or less and Newcastle will to eventually.
2) You could be right, but the scenario of the market, going downward of bust is true of any investment and football is no different, so you will get bullish investors and on the opposite those looking to pull the parachute be a mix of both, just depends on what type of investor you are, ultimately investment is speculating, football is no different to any other investment, its a different type of real estate really. It could be a difficult environment for investment in the year ahead, depending on what you believe economically, or how deep a recession across Europe will get, but that could also lead to a few vultures wanting to take an opportunity of a distressed asset or low hanging fruit for a club in financial difficulty also.
3) Again investors aren't really looking to make a profit out of the business for themselves, its desirable from the point of view of not having to invest running capital and if you can grow you can develop the club, but in buying the club you are accepting that's its a high cost environment and you wont be making money annually from the business, no one does really, its all about the asset and making it grow, thats the money to be made in football.
4) For me its hard to think of a good investor for us at the moment. Probably someone who will cover the stadium costs and continue to fund our losses - but that's no different to what we have. A bad investor for us would be some one who comes in saddles us with more debt or sells players. The company has costs beyond our turnover so cash has to come from somewhere, debt and selling players are two ways of getting it if your not investing your own captial to cover costs. Neither i think you'd agree in our current situation is desirable.