3 weeks to go in the window, just a check in on how we are doing financially, wide diverse view, on projected losses this year - ive seen some project we are heading for a loss of 60 mill after the Richarlison sale - though id be closer to thinking we are at round zero after the sale i.e we are very close to breaking even for 21/22, the clubs activity in this window seem to indicate that.
Heading into 22/23, since the first of July we recouped £42 million in wages and amortisation, or rather players have left and we dont have to pay it - this creates space in our budget. We can factor in £27 million from the Moise Kean deal this fincial year as i beleive the obligation kicks in on the 30th of June 23.
So cashflow wise, we get £52 million, for Richarlison which probably covers our losses last year or close (in my opinion), 27 million for Kean we can count on this finacal year and £42 million in scope of the wage bill. Proabably important to say if we are running at a loss of 60 mill, that £42 million should come of the bottom line, so before player trading we are prob operating at a loss £18 mill or so.
So player trading, we've taken on costs, seems to me we are keen to stick to wage structure of about 4.5 mill, which is about 80k a week, the like sof Vinarge and McNeill may be on less so ill count them at 3.2 (60k) mill just for illustrative purposes. So the cost we have taken on are:
J.T. : Wages
4.5 million a year
Vinargre:
Wages 3.2
McNeill:
Wages: 3.2
Ammortisation: 4million
Projected:
Onana:
Wages: 4.5 mill
Ammortisation: 6.7 million.
Idrissa:
Wages: 4.5 million
Ammortisation: 4 million.
Coady:
4.5 million.
So if all of the above comes to pass we have saved £42. million in costs, but taken on £39.1 million. Before we look at taking on a striker or signing anything in addition to the above. So in terms of getting our losses down we've saved costs, but taken on more or less the same costs in new signings. Richarlisons fee will forgive much of last seasons loss and heading into this financial year, Kean £27 million might cushion the blow, but we are still probably operating as a business loosing £60 million a year, before we do anything else, when you factor in lower turnover - USM and Placement money. We could really we do with selling some players, but we know the problems there
Given the figures above the manager is certainly being backed in the market, ultimately if the above comes to pass we haven't really reduced our costs at all and likely we will need a sale similar to Richarlison next year to balance the books. In true Moshiri fashion hes pushing his chips out in the middle of the table and is gambling again.
One notable trend i notice is a policy of looking and investing in the likes of JT, Coady and Idrissa - which is fine - good players practical solutions - but we are investing for 0 return. Kind of like Allan when he leaves on a free next year. We get no return bar service on owning him. Given player trading profits are a key area of raising capital for football clubs, three of our signings this summer we wont see a return on and investing £45 million in McNeill and Onana and backing ourselves to make a profit on them.
Its all Kool and the gang as the players come through the door in the summer, but ultimately we are kicking the an down the road again financially. maybe thats the plan, maybe that ok if we accept the strategy is getting to BMD on wing and prayer and we can broaden out our revenue base. But with three weeks in the window and a lot more likely to happen in between its probably good to take stop in the midst of the giddiness.
My take as the crow flies anyway.
