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New Everton Stadium

davek said:
Are you serious? FFS, read that back to yourself.

How have we become so blase about half a billion quid?
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Firstly you've added £200m to the clubs official figure, as they've said £300m, whilst I expect the final figure to be higher, your £500m figure has been pulled out of your hoop.

Secondly, the capital cost comes secondary to the businesses ability to structure the loan and therefore the annual repayments, in a way that ensures that the cost is affordable. As with any debt it's the ability of the business to fund that's the prime issue.

I note that you completely swerved my obvious point about how we're most likely to cover the entire annual cost of the borrowing btw i.e. naming rights. You carry on ploughing your doom mongering furrow though.
 
I have to admit I did not read the full memorandum to the LCC cabinet on the stadium, but if I had one concern, it is the impact of inflation on the funding model agreed.

I did read somewhere once that inflation in the construction industry is approx 10% pa, and there are the complications of Brexit and general uncertainty globally added to the mix.

I would assume the club has factored all of these things in, but does anyone know if this has been addressed in detail anywhere in terms of our repayment obligations to the SPV and length of the leasing agreement?

It seems unrealistic to deliver what we hope will be a stadium with a capacity in excess of 55k (I hope, would prefer 60k) for £300m. Without having a shred of knowledge or expertise on the subject, it is very easy to see that figure increase by 25-30% at least over the lifetime of the build. That would be another £100m and it's not monopoly money.

I do expect that all this is forethought and anticipated though.
 
brieverton said:
I have to admit I did not read the full memorandum to the LCC cabinet on the stadium, but if I had one concern, it is the impact of inflation on the funding model agreed.

I did read somewhere once that inflation in the construction industry is approx 10% pa, and there are the complications of Brexit and general uncertainty globally added to the mix.

I would assume the club has factored all of these things in, but does anyone know if this has been addressed in detail anywhere in terms of our repayment obligations to the SPV and length of the leasing agreement?

It seems unrealistic to deliver what we hope will be a stadium with a capacity in excess of 55k (I hope, would prefer 60k) for £300m. Without having a shred of knowledge or expertise on the subject, it is very easy to see that figure increase by 25-30% at least over the lifetime of the build. That would be another £100m and it's not monopoly money.

I do expect that all this is forethought and anticipated though.
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It is imperative that costs and timeline are nailed at the outset in the construction contracts to ensure minimal slippage on either front. That is what a proper project manager is paid to do.

Crazy overruns in time and costs are usually found where these matters were left hazy - that is where project management is incompetent.

My sense is that Moshiri et al know their way around these matters very well, and that all contingencies will be addressed.
 

Rich people always borrow to increase their wealth. It's easier for a bank to loan money to someone who is very unlikely to not be able to pay it back. Anyone who didn't think we were going to build through borrowing is mental. It's all about the deal and how we cope with the repayments. We need a deal which doesn't burden us in the transfer market and in other commercial areas.
 
Gardocki said:
I agree with you here Davek, but I don't share your fear regarding the sustainability of the stadium repayments.

The football bubble won't keep expanding, and there are already signs that TV companies in the UK have overpaid for rights deals. It's probably not going to burst though, as the EPL will continue to be a massive draw for viewers around the world for the forseeable future. If the TV money reduces, it is likely that the players salaries will too. That is by far the biggest expense of any football club, and miles higher than competing leagues pay. It is also worth considering that:
  • The stadium will bring in naming rights that will carry a premium for being a 'state of the art arena' on Liverpool's docks.
  • The corporate provisions and additional seats will generate extra revenue.
  • Revamping Goodison (if possible) to a sufficient standard would likely a couple of hundred million anyway, and wouldn't generate the same income as a new stadium in the docks. That would also put us in massive debt, and probably wouldn't be loaned to us on such favourable terms.
So ........ calm down and enjoy the new stadium.
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If you pay players less they leave for other leagues. If other leagues start attracting more attention (as with, for example, the fast growing Bundesliga in the far east market...it's not too difficult to see Serie A re-emerging as a global player either with new investment coming in for their elite....) then global interest in our domestic football is challenged and perhaps usurped and down go the tv revenues and individual club turnover.

Our game isn't future proofed commercially. It staggers every few seasons from one gigantic fix to the next and I doubt it's sustainable.
 
I dont know if anyone has linked to this, saw it online yesterday, Basically work has started this week to continue the upgrading of the A565, for 2.7km which is one block over from Regent Road AKA "The Dock Road" past where the new stadium will be. This should be good news, expanding the road network around where the new stadium will be.


http://www.liverpoolexpress.co.uk/work-begin-22m-road-scheme/



Work to begin on £22m road scheme
May 2, 2017


Work is to start on creating a new dual carriageway for a major route into Liverpool city centre.

National contractor Osborne is to begin widening the A565 (Great Howard Street/Derby Road) this week with a programme of site investigations on the £22m scheme.

Upgrading the route, which handles traffic between Sefton and Liverpool along the northern docks, is also a key element of a £100m regeneration drive in North Liverpool.

The new 2.7km long stretch in the city’s Atlantic corridor is seen as crucial to a new creative village in the area – called Ten Streets and will have spin off benefits for Everton FC’s proposed new stadium at nearby Bramley Moore Dock.

The new dual carriageway, part funded by the Liverpool City Region Growth Deal, will also pave the way for a major revamp of the historic Regent Road – aka “the Dock Road” – to make that more pedestrian and bike friendly, creating a continuous cycle route from Crosby to Liverpool.

Lane restrictions rather than a road closure will be deployed to minimise disruption on the A565, which is also currently having a new £10m bridge created that will enable freight to travel to and from the new £400m Liverpool2 deep water container terminal, which is part of Peel Land and Trust’s £5.5bn Liverpool Waters scheme.

The new dual carriageway, which includes improved paving, traffic signals and street lighting, will complete as follows:

  • Phase 1: Leeds Street to Blackstone Street – Road widening phase
  • Phase 2: Bankhall Street to Millers Bridge – Road widening phase
  • Phase 3: Regent Road from Paisley Street to Nelson Street – New pavement/Resurfacing and cycleway provision phase
  • Phase 4: Boundary Street to Everton View – Upgrade of Traffic Signalised junctions and Street lighting with associated resurfacing
Expected to finish by Summer 2019, the works are part of Liverpool City Council’s wider £250m Better Roads programme to improve the city’s road infrastructure and will be complemented by the creation of two new £20m waterfront link roads at the city centre end of the A565, which are being built to support a proposed new Cruise Terminal.

Councillor Malcolm Kennedy, Liverpool’s Cabinet Member for Regeneration, said: “I’m delighted work is to begin on making the A565 a full dual carriageway. Once complete it will benefit millions of journeys every year and will stimulate the renaissance in our Atlantic Corridor. I’m especially excited by the fact that this scheme will give Regent Road a completely new lease of life. This will greatly benefit the Ten Streets creativity zone as well as Everton’s plans for their new stadium.”

John Dowsett, Managing Director – Infrastructure at Osborne, said: “Starting these works is highly significant to us and we look forward to helping to improve the infrastructure for Liverpool’s city centre. This sees us working with forward thinking local authorities who recognise the collaborative approach we bring.”



• The A565 road widening project is supported by the Department for Transport with £13.3 million from the Liverpool City Region Growth Deal, secured by the Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP). In March 2014 the Liverpool City Region LEP secured a total of £232m of Local Growth Fund from the Growth Plan that was submitted to Government. This Plan outlined an ambitious vision of unlocking the region’s potential with the long term goal of achieving economic growth and job creation. For more information visit www.liverpoollep.org/economic-strategy/growth-deal/
 
Jeff Jones said:
But it does. Oh, there are occasional blips along the way, but look at the graph, it just goes up over time.

As for the risk, to what extent does LLC's position as guarantor mitigate it?
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I'm sure it does but you're graph will only show exponential growth over the last decade or so.
 
Foot Long Hot Dog said:
Name them.

If it's the overarching point, then let's hear what these supposed alternative are then Dave. :coffee:
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We can redevelop
We can find another alternative stadium scheme
We can do neither in the short term and build up the strength of the team for an on-field recovery then look to move.
 

davek said:
We can redevelop
We can find another alternative stadium scheme
We can do neither in the short term and build up the strength of the team for an on-field recovery then look to move.
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And where does the money come from to build up the strength of the team for an on field recovery. ??
Clubs that are 8/9/10/11 will be getting the same Tv and league position money as us and the likes of Newcastle have a bigger more modern stadium so more match day revenue
 
davek said:
I'm sure it does but you're graph will only show exponential growth over the last decade or so.
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We don't need growth Dave, we could have financed this before the TV boom. Just no one was going to lend us that much at that rate, sometimes you just need to get a foot in the door. ;) The stadium should make more than it cost and if/when everyone decides that Chinese football is where it's at then we will need the larger stadium more than ever.

Without a large TV deal, clubs like Newcastle and West Ham will surge ahead of us.

Using basic maths but leaning far to the negative side as possible I'll give a quick idea of affordability.

Say our income was slashed to 2008 levels, around 80 million, (although it would be larger like for like due to the higher capacity and naming rights as well as more corporate facilities) the stadium costs 20 million a year in repayments, minus the 5 or so million we were paying in intetest just to service debts back then. Naming rights conservatively should pull in 7.5 million a year.

So we need to find 7.5 million to break even, 18k extra seats sold at £25 a pop over a season will earn us 8.1 million. Not including cup games, not including extra sponsorship that will come from having a state of the art facility/tours and so on, not really including the extra corporate income.

Surely you can see that is a risk worth taking? The biggest problem in football if it went bust would be players wages and how quickly you can off load the large earners, the stadium is a positive asset and always will be. There will always be people watching games regardless if all the best talent is abroad.
 

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