Reading between the lines of the Anderson podcast with O’Keffe and his previous one with The Everton Business Matters Guys it is clear EFC got hit by a double whammy. 1. More realistic cost estimate of £500+m than £300-350m 2. Council risk assessment reducing max funding from ‘up to £350m’ to £280m. We have gone from effectively fully funded to a £200+m funding gap.
Elstone was beavering away behind the scenes. As I understand it there is a (Chinese) funding option but at >9% interest (vs. ~ 5-6% from the council) making the economics worse than marginal. Elstone leaving has certainly disrupted the funding search & Harris, now leading, is a carpet-bagger IMO.
Moshiri (Usmanov) are somewhat hampered/indirectly impacted by US sanctions and less willing/able to provide shareholder funding meaning we cannot move forward until either that changes or we get a difference making naming rights deal with a substantial upfront prepayment. Unfortunately the stadium naming rights market is flat, Spurs & West Ham have struggled lately and so are we.
The project could collapse, especially if the council pull out. Assuming the council stay committed it is more likely it will drag on for another extra year or two until circumstances shift/Moshiri finds a way to make more funding available. BREXIT is a wildcard. It could create capital flight from UK and deinvestment. This may restrict lending options but it may also leave fewer projects competing for funds. Hard to predict if we win or lose right now.
