two different scenarios mate:
10,000 x 19 games x £50 = £9,500,000
2,000 x 19 games x £175 = £6,650,000
Total revenue increase = £16 million (not £15m as I approximated) - this was to answer
@Adversus point
My model is as follows:
10% increase in ticket prices, plus increase in attendances (39k to 50k) = increase in revenues of £8.3 m (I am not pricing the extra tickets at £50, just 10% higher than today's current prices)
Reduction in running costs = £2 million
Naming rights = £2 million
Hospitality sales increase = 2,000 x 19 x £175 = £ 6.65 million
Increase in net revenues = £8.3m + £2m + £2m + 6.65m = £19 milllion (hence my approximate £20 million comment)
Came across this thread, so scratched my head a bit and then realised why I couldn't agree the figures that anyone had put forward, so here's my take, if there is anything glaringly wrong in my assumptions or just plain daft, please feel free to lambast.
Starting point for me was trying to ascertain the current average yield per seat occupied at Goodison. Bear in mind that all Premier League (at least) ticket sales must go through GPSL because of the Securitisation deal.
GPSL 2014 accounts where the actual gate receipts are included - £15,259,734.00
This figure then needs to be reduced by Everton's share of the away supporters ticket sales at GP. To do this I had to make assumptions so I based it on an away supporter paying on average £30+VAT per seat of which GPSL get 50%, therefor £15 per ticket, an average of 1500 away supporters turning up, so deduct 15x1500x19 = £427,500 from turnover to get the Everton supporters gate receipts - £14,832,234.00
Next stop was Everton's accounts which usefully give an average Premier League attendance of 37,732. Deduct the average away support of 1500 used above and you are left with 36232x19 = 688,408 good Evertonian backsides on seats during the Premier League season.
Divide the Everton supporters gate receipts by the number of Evertonian backsides - £14,832,234/688,408 = £21.55
So per the information available and a couple of assumptions, the average seat cost is £21.55p (+VAT)
Next thing was to calculate the "Hospitality premium" this excludes the cost of the seat as calculated above.
So, Group account matchday receipts - £19,339,000, deduct GPSL turnover in full of 15,259,734 giving a difference of £4,079,266.00
This figure includes at least 2 other things by my reckoning - programme sales and the Everton share of our nomads away ticket sales. Calculated these as follows:
Programmes say 5000x19x£2.50 = £237,500
Our nomads - 2500 fansx19x£18 (other clubs do tend to charge more) = 855,000.
So the total "Hospitality premium" is £(4079266-237500-855000) =£2,986,766
The figures that I used for hospitality numbers during the season were 1000 per match, so 19000, giving an average premium of £157.20p
So to the new Stadium.
Used increase of 12,000 (11,500 EFC, 500 away) so an average of a tad under 50k, based on a 55000 seater stadium being 90%+.
For bums on seats, the increase for EFC supporters is 19x21.55x11500 = 4,707,736.01, away support is 500x15x19 = 142,500.00 so a total of £4,850,236.01p for the season.
For Hospitality premium, have used 2000 as you suggested, so 19x2000x157.20p = 5,973,532.00 so the total increase in gate and hospitality would be £10,823,768.01p. Add back the Group match day receipts figure of 19,339,000 and the revised turnover figure is £30,162,768.01p.
Admittedly, this is based on the 13/14 accounts, and the glaring one really is that GPSL turnover probably includes the 2 home cup matches we played that season, so £21.55+VAT is probably more than the average yield per seat per League match. Guestimate, West Ham would generate about £17 per seat, crowd was 33K? so say 561k and the Capital One Cup tie was a really cheap do with loads of kids, so probably yielded about 12 a seat, think 22k there so 264,000. This would take the average down by approximately £801/688 or £1.16 per premier league seat yield to£ 20.39 is. It should also be pointed out that there would have been hospitality at West Ham & Capital One cup, so even this premium is overstated.
The point is, that so many seats are sold on concessionary bases that the match day take would probably not cover the servicing of a debt greater than a £115,000,000 loan at 8% over 30 years(Excel loan calculator again), so is it viable on a stand alone basis without ridding the club of the TV rights debt?
I also appreciate that I have not taken into account other factors such as naming rights and reductions in repairs and maintenance and I have not added the 10% across the board rise that you have included, but in terms of revenue without swingeing rises in yields per seat from 2013/14 levels, the 16 mil is unattainable.
Anyway, can't remember if my season ticket went up in 2014/15, but I can replicate the calculations and update when the 2015 accounts hit the public domain. If anyone has got this far, I doff my cap to you, and if anyone can give me more solid assumptions, then I can amend it.
Coffee, cigarettes, and life required!!!
