New Everton Stadium


Any model has to have assumptions built behind it, so I'll explain the assumptions then offer a conclusion.

Assumptions:

Revenue:
Revenue per regular seat rises from current net £20 per seat per game to £25 per seat per game.

Executive seats generate net £200 per seat per game.

Costs:

Build costs: £6,000 per seat
Financing costs: 6% per annum over 25 years.

Capital contribution: £150 million, all other costs met by debt.

Whilst I agree we need to build a stadium appropriate for our future needs, interestingly the capacity of the stadium makes no difference in cashflow terms whether it be 55,000, 60,000 or 65,000.

The key to the financial contribution a new stadium makes is the number of "executive seats" built and sold.

50,000 regular seats and 5,000 executive seat stadium

Additional regular seat revenues: £9.3 m
Additional executive seat revenue: £19 m
Cost of stadium: £330 million
Debt £180 million
Financing costs pa £13.9 m

Net positive cash flow: £14.4 m p.a.

55,000 regular seat and 5,000 executive seat stadium

Additional regular seat revenues: £14.1 m
Additional executive seat revenue: £19 m
Cost of stadium: £390 million
Debt £240 million
Financing costs pa £18.6 m

Net positive cash flow: £14.5 m p.a.

60,000 regular seats and 5,000 executive seat stadium

Additional regular seat revenues: £14.1m
Additional executive seat revenue: £19 m
Cost of stadium: £330 million
Debt £180 million
Financing costs pa £18.3 m

Net positive cash flow: £14.8 m p.a.

Therefore the size of the stadium is largely a function of the future anticipated demand for seats, and the willingness of Mr Moshiri to debt fund the construction.

The key is the number of executive seats the club can sell and at what price not the total capacity of the ground.

A 50,000 regular seat stadium and 7,000 executive seats makes more commercial sense than a 55,000 regular seat and 5,000 executive seat stadium.

Every 1,000 executive seats sold is worth £3.8 million a year. (At £200 net per seat)
Nice work mate.
Personally, I think if and when we decided on building a new stadium at a new site, we should build with the mindset of what we will need if/when we are the top club in the league, and, regularly hosting Champion's League matches WITH FULL HOUSES.
50k or 65k seats? 5k or 7k executive boxes? What do we foresee as the demand of a club at the top of the tree?
 
Actual lol at people thinking we'd fill a 65k stadium.

me too, the only way I'd build that size is with a section that can be totally shut off from view unless needed so as to hide away the empty seats.

When folk say we need that then they really do need to look over our attendances since the 60's, there was a thread a while ago on about a game we played at sunderland and the crowd was about 44k, the question was asked when we had last topped it ? I trawled back through stuff on Evertonresults and discounted certain fixtures...

Derby Matches
Bayern Munich
QPR when we won league
A couple of later round cup games

It was about 1972 the last time we'd pulled a bigger crown for a normal game

last time average was over 40k was 74-75

in 84-85 it was 32,131

in 86-87 it was 32,977

last game i can find that is over 45,000 is....

Wed May3 1989

Div 1 the shoite 45,994
which would have been just after Hillsborough

Sat Feb16 1985

FAC 5 H Telford W3-0 47,402 ... they brought about 15k as I remember
 

This is not correct.

The population of the north west of England is the same as central London with a team per million population of a similar region.

Its also not correct to state we would have to 'give tickets away'

How is comparing the whole of the north west to just central London fair ? Fans of the London teams also travel from areas outside of central London.

You're also ignoring the fact that tourism in London means you get far more day trippers going to watch football games while visiting the capital. Our potential for that is far less.
 
We're averaging over 35,000 at home this season, irrespective of where and how big a new stadium is, I reckon to take us to averaging closer to 40,000 we need to win a trophy and be top six every year. Success breeds news fans quicker than the birth rate can produce them.
I agree success will gain us new fans more than anything else. There is a certain novelty value to a new stadium, affordable pricing, hence why I think, we can put 5k on the gate. However to gain an average attendance of high 40ks it is all dependent on a winning team. Give people an attractive successful team with good facilities and they will come.
 
This is not correct.

The population of the north west of England is the same as central London with a team per million population of a similar region.

Its also not correct to state we would have to 'give tickets away'
Where was I incorrect, I said it would be competitive to attract fans with only London being harder. Please enlighten me with your knowledge of populations, and social structure of the North West. Why am I incorrect to say we would have to give tickets away? We already do to schools.
 

The 2004–05 Premier League survey, which asked almost 1400 Everton fans various questions, found that 40% of matchday fans live within 10 miles of Goodison Park. All together 77% of Everton fans lived less than 49 miles away from the stadium.[4] The 2007–08 found that on average Everton fans live 44 miles away from Goodison Park, 3 miles less than the average and a huge difference compared with rivals Liverpool and Manchester United who were 82 and 78 miles respectively from their stadium.[5] Everton draws the vast majority of its support from Merseyside, Cheshire, Lancashire and North Wales
The 2003–04 Premier league survey found that 71% of Everton fans earn under £30,000 a year.
The 2002–03 report found Everton had the highest number of season ticket holders from the two lowest social classifications with 16%, 1% more than Sunderland.
{Although from Wikipedia, I couldn't find the more recently produced article re: percentage local support}
Overall it would be key to fill a a ground with non-locals which would be bloody hard when you have the two most successful teams on your doorstep- although stealing Leicesters corporate guy seems the first in hopefully many positive steps. I do want us to be ambitious, and as big as possible, but 55k with potential to 60k seems the sensible idea- unless it can be shown that predicted growth, or finances make it worthwhile.
 
Its quite right.

There are far too many far too quick to talk EFC down as a football club.
The expectation of our fans has been lowered under the tenure of kenwright. Minimal investment in the squad and the clubs infrastructure, thus the media uses terms as 'punching above their weight' and 'plucky everton'.
But people within football (sir Alex, souness) still acknowledge us a 'proper football club'. You only have to look at how dismissive Ferguson was over Rafael's 'small club' jibe. Look at our away support in Europe last season, I might be wrong, I don't think any other team has taken that many fans to away games in the group stages of the Europa league, in its history. It only reinforces just how big a club we are. It is indeed a 'sleeping giant' and thanks to moshiri he can see this and why he is willing to invest his millions into making us great again.
 
The expectation of our fans has been lowered under the tenure of kenwright. Minimal investment in the squad and the clubs infrastructure, thus the media uses terms as 'punching above their weight' and 'plucky everton'.
But people within football (sir Alex, souness) still acknowledge us a 'proper football club'. You only have to look at how dismissive Ferguson was over Rafael's 'small club' jibe. Look at our away support in Europe last season, I might be wrong, I don't think any other team has taken that many fans to away games in the group stages of the Europa league, in its history. It only reinforces just how big a club we are. It is indeed a 'sleeping giant' and thanks to moshiri he can see this and why he is willing to invest his millions into making us great again.


Or how starved we've been of European Away Days.


Lille .... possibly the closest & easiest & cheapest place to get to that we could have played in mainland Europe, with a stadium big enough to allow a large allocation. A large amount of those that went there would possibly not go to a euro away game, or it was maybe made up of fans that may have gone to 1 of the others thus combining to give a large support.
I'm not talking us down btw but consider other factors like ticket cost etc, we took a lot to wolfsburg but if their tickets had been £60 then it would've stopped folk going due to cost.
There's still a certain Novelty factor regarding our european aways, in fact look at pre season ones where folk grab the chance for a couple of days away in a european city on the lash. The fact is that if it was every season then the numbers travelling away would lower & be too difficult to maintain for many based on cost for starters & actually being able to get time off etc. I'm not saying we wouldnt fill allocations but the vast numbers we took to some games last season just wouldnt happen.


Just the same as 60k per week wouldnt.
 
The expectation of our fans has been lowered under the tenure of kenwright. Minimal investment in the squad and the clubs infrastructure, thus the media uses terms as 'punching above their weight' and 'plucky everton'.
But people within football (sir Alex, souness) still acknowledge us a 'proper football club'. You only have to look at how dismissive Ferguson was over Rafael's 'small club' jibe. Look at our away support in Europe last season, I might be wrong, I don't think any other team has taken that many fans to away games in the group stages of the Europa league, in its history. It only reinforces just how big a club we are. It is indeed a 'sleeping giant' and thanks to moshiri he can see this and why he is willing to invest his millions into making us great again.
I was thinking more along the lines of disposable income of fans rather than us not being a big club.

Would be interested to know how much a ticket price is compared to the average wage, now vs the 80s. A day out at the game seems to be very expensive these days, and I think that's turning many folk away.
 

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