Patience for a 2.5 season strategy?

[Zatara]

I would be interested to know what percentage of our youngsters actually ever get over the line and get elevated to the first team. I suspect those who do get as far as the U-23's don't get any further as their development gets arrested. These kids need exposure to the higher grades of football but it seldom happens - with the occasional exception - and they must become disillusioned when they see the kind of first team players we have who are picked week in, week out despite their woeful performances.

The current likes of Simms, Branthwaite...and one or two other bench warmers are not going to stick around indefinitely. We've already lost the young left back who refused to re-sign on a perma contract (whether he makes summat of himself remains to be seen and his character may be considered a tad mercenary but I put that down to his agent as much as anything) which begs to suggest that our investment in youth is money wasted if we don't blood them at the highest level and deprive them their development...even a couple of games at first team level just as part of their progression.
But no, we would sooner go out and spend, spend, spend on very average roundsmen who probably cannot believe that someone is willing to pay the contracts they get and we end up getting what we deserve, mercenary has-beens with little or no genuine heart for the fight.

If BMD is ever completed we may as well call it the Pleasure Dome Home for Gentile former Footballers such are the type of players we seem constantly to attract. There doesn't appear to be any form of due diligence undertaken when we research potential signings.

I think thats why some posters like @ToffeeTim are advocating for Lampard who has shown a desire to bring through young players.

The one im most excited about would be Branthwaite. He looked highly promising for us under Ancelotti alongside Keane and it only seemed a matter of time to me before he pushed to start.

Benitez gave him 57mins against Huddersfield only. Thats despite Keanes shocking start to the season and general performances.

 

[Zatara]

So we simply sell a massive amount of players that nobody wants to buy and use the no money we get from anyone to buy players that will propel us up the table? I’m in.

Well, no. We can let players contracts run down over the next 2.5 years and sell the ones we have offers for if we choose.

There are many players we have in our squad that can be sold, just not at the insane prices we quote teams :

e.g £22mil for Tosun when he went to Palace + £10mil for Kenny etc.

The wages we pay are so high that when they leave we have alot of available space in the wage bill e.g £300k+ next summer.

 

[Timak]

The stadium will be ready in 2024 and I think we'll see a second wave of investment at that time.

Over this and the next two seasons (22/23 and 23/24) we rebuild the squad at close to zero net spend. Only spending what we bring in and taking the FFP / Profit and sustainability back to around square one.

That means a clearing of the decks*:

Begovic, Lonergan, Coleman, Kenny, Keane, Mina, Digne, Holgate, Gbamin, Allan, Gomes, Davies, Delph, Sigurdsson, Iwobi, Townsend, Rondon, Tosun.

18 players to be moved on.


There are a core group of players we keep*:

Pickford, Nkounkou, Branthwaite, Godfrey, Onyango, Doucoure, Gray, Gordon, Richarlison, Dobbin, DCL

-- 11 players. 2 GK + 10 Outfield needed.

If they wont extend or performances/potential drop then we also sell them and reinvest.

*General examples, you may have others to keep/sell in mind*

Clearly this wont all happen at once so as players are sold / phased out we target replacements who are u23 or pre-contract agreements.

A 'realistic slow sustainable' position target might be:

21/22 = 12th-15th
22/23 = 9th-12th
23/24 = 7th-9th

In 2024 season we could then have a team whose core ages range from 20-27.

At that time we can add players who can push us from 7-9th to top 6 and beyond.

On the one hand this is a radical clearing of the decks but on the other it is a slow progression from what we have currently.


My question is:

Would you accept this strategy from now until the start of 2024 season if it meant the slow progression on the pitch?

This would involve bringing in a progressive, forward thinking manager OR sticking with Benitez. However the strategy remains the same.

Or do you demand immediate changes in January / summer 2022 to roll the dice and hope that things improve faster?

I mean I would bite your hand off for it but it is staggeringly naive to think that you can create a mid-table team out of those players and minimal incoming transfers.

 

[Stephenlloyd]

I see Richy going in the summer and most likely DCL as well. Both will want out. DCL is everywhere right now except on the pitch. This will get us back to zero plus huge wages off the books.

I can see Richarlison going, but not DCL, not next summer unless we get a ridiculous offer

 

[Stephenlloyd]

The stadium will be ready in 2024 and I think we'll see a second wave of investment at that time.

Over this and the next two seasons (22/23 and 23/24) we rebuild the squad at close to zero net spend. Only spending what we bring in and taking the FFP / Profit and sustainability back to around square one.

That means a clearing of the decks*:

Begovic, Lonergan, Coleman, Kenny, Keane, Mina, Digne, Holgate, Gbamin, Allan, Gomes, Davies, Delph, Sigurdsson, Iwobi, Townsend, Rondon, Tosun.

18 players to be moved on.


There are a core group of players we keep*:

Pickford, Nkounkou, Branthwaite, Godfrey, Onyango, Doucoure, Gray, Gordon, Richarlison, Dobbin, DCL

-- 11 players. 2 GK + 10 Outfield needed.

If they wont extend or performances/potential drop then we also sell them and reinvest.

*General examples, you may have others to keep/sell in mind*

Clearly this wont all happen at once so as players are sold / phased out we target replacements who are u23 or pre-contract agreements.

A 'realistic slow sustainable' position target might be:

21/22 = 12th-15th
22/23 = 9th-12th
23/24 = 7th-9th

In 2024 season we could then have a team whose core ages range from 20-27.

At that time we can add players who can push us from 7-9th to top 6 and beyond.

On the one hand this is a radical clearing of the decks but on the other it is a slow progression from what we have currently.


My question is:

Would you accept this strategy from now until the start of 2024 season if it meant the slow progression on the pitch?

This would involve bringing in a progressive, forward thinking manager OR sticking with Benitez. However the strategy remains the same.

Or do you demand immediate changes in January / summer 2022 to roll the dice and hope that things improve faster?

After silva was sacked 2 years ago, I would have been happy to give it to Dunc. And I’m not one of these big Dunc fans , personally I wanted him gone this summer, number 2 under his 5/6 manger is a joke

And re-group for 2 years, just stay in the league, blood a few youngsters and get the high earning wasters off the books. And start again in 2/3 years.

I think what you say sounds a good plan, but I wouldn’t want Rafael, to do that. I’d rather get us a manger for the long haul, who can work with Brands and build a style moving forward.

 

[tsubaki]

I’d fully support a plan like this, but with the manager we have there’s zero chance of it happening. Lampard might be better but would he really go to a club attempting this?

 

[CahillsCornerFlag]

Would have much preferred Potter and I said so at the time. Id give him 2 full seasons because we need stability, but it needs to be under a younger more progressive coach like him. Not a Kopite.

 

[LocalNative]

Whilst I no longer want Benitez here, I don't understand the narrative of allowing an unproven young manager to have 2 years in charge before we judge him rather than a serial winner in Benitez.

There's no way this fanbase would tolerate two season of finishing 15th and 12th under Potter either, you're absolutely kidding yourselves. Where was Marco Silva's 2.5 season strategy patience? First sign of the going getting tough we booted him.

 

[Brett Angell Delight]

Well, no. We can let players contracts run down over the next 2.5 years and sell the ones we have offers for if we choose.

There are many players we have in our squad that can be sold, just not at the insane prices we quote teams :

e.g £22mil for Tosun when he went to Palace + £10mil for Kenny etc.

The wages we pay are so high that when they leave we have alot of available space in the wage bill e.g £300k+ next summer.

Fair enough, appreciate the clarification.

I suppose my question, then, is how much we can be trusted under the current setup to reinvest the funds wisely as we get them. Let’s say we get rid of a waning Digne, for example, for £20m; do we adequately replace him for the same or less?

If your strategy is based on us finally getting our transfers right then of course I’d be up for it. The reality is, unfortunately, that we’ll just replace the crap with more crap and the decent players with crap.

 

[Igrok]

Been there…done that…

 

[Misa]

Have you tried applying for a job at Everton? Marcel Brands is surely on a few million a year. Just replacing him with you will save that few million. You even have the bonus of a strategy all worked out already. I trust that under your leadership, we will by champions within 3 years. Support Zatara, sack Marcel Brands. SACK SACK SACK.

 

[Theoneandonly]

I think thats why some posters like @ToffeeTim are advocating for Lampard who has shown a desire to bring through young players.

The one im most excited about would be Branthwaite. He looked highly promising for us under Ancelotti alongside Keane and it only seemed a matter of time to me before he pushed to start.

Benitez gave him 57mins against Huddersfield only. Thats despite Keanes shocking start to the season and general performances.

Who has Lampard brought through?

Tammy Abraham who Rafael had been chasing for 2 years at Newcastle. Who had a very successful loan at Villa.

Mason Mount who had 2 very successful loans at top level.

Reece James.

Big deal.

The guy has failed several interviews with different clubs now.

 

[ToffeeTim]

I see he's talking about selling players in the media now. The only players we can sell for profit are the players he says we can't cope without. Yet more incoherent ramblings from a manager who is becoming increasingly desperate.

 

[ClausThomsen]

£100mil lets not forget goes onto the balance sheet as a total amount as a sale while signings are shown (for profit/sustainability) over the course of players contracts. So in theory, we could spend what we bring in at 5× if the contract is 5 years. But ive been more prudent.

How many of these players (numbers wise) would need replacing:

Delph, Sigurdsson, Lonergan, Tosun, Kenny. Its just one, Kenny at RB.

Then if we add in Richarlison and Mina it becomes 3 players.

For now, lets ignore any other sales and just focus on that:

Pickford
??? Godfrey ??? Digne
Doucoure Allan
??? ??? Gray
DCL
​

£100mil + £500k in weekly wages.

You could even say £126mil and £400k in weekly wages (the £26mil coming from £100k wages over a 5 year deal).

I think thats very reasonable to expect 3, if not 4 players u23 with high quality for those numbers.

The question marks suggest you don't think we need cover for DCL - how's it going this year? Doucore and Allan get injured or suspended - who's coming in there with 3 or 4 additions?

We'd need way more than 3 or 4 players. This season shows the shortcomings of having a half decent mid-table first 11 with nothing behind it. Bringing in 3 or 4 players means you're relying on that first 11 to not pick up injuries. All the outfield players you've listed need replacing with better quality to provide cover and also legitimate competition for the first team.

Then as part of that we'd be counting on those 4 U23 players hitting the ground running and not having ups and downs in their form or getting injured as you've previously stated a continual year on year improvement in league placings being part of the plan. Getting a 75-100% success rate on young player transfers to immediately come into and successfully contribute to a senior first 11 in the PL would be fairytale stuff - it doesn't happen.

I'll reiterate - I like the idea of a long term strategy which involves developing young players whether they're bought or developed from the academy. But it requires a hell of a lot more patience and bumpy times than the 2.5 years of gradual improvement you suggest. And if it requires such financial constraints then it also involves flirting with relegation.

 

[ClausThomsen]

Who has Lampard brought through?

Tammy Abraham who Rafael had been chasing for 2 years at Newcastle. Who had a very successful loan at Villa.

Mason Mount who had 2 very successful loans at top level.

Reece James.

Big deal.

The guy has failed several interviews with different clubs now.

He was bringing through youth because he had to, not because he chose to. He was a convenient "club legend" to act as a sticking plaster while the transfer embargo was in place.

How much faith did he show in them once the purse strings were opened as well? He was soon seen through as someone who had little idea how to set out a side and put together a coherent tactical plan involving defending.

Tuchel had the same players twice as organised in weeks and winning the CL in months. He's also improved his young players no end.