Playoff %'s for Knockout rounds by Nate Silver

[NHRevs]

Okay, if I did this right, below are Nate Silver's SPI percentages for advancing to the knockout rounds. Some of these are already moot, of course, but the interesting bit is that, for instance, in Group C, between their chances for winning or coming second, USA has a 63% chance to advance. England has a better chance than USA to win the group outright, but a much worse (worse than Algeria!) chance to come second, so, overall, USA has a much better chance to get through than England.

It says here.

 

[Reidy's Bottle Of Grecian]

& exactly who is Nate Silva ?

he';s no Garth Crooks or Mick McCarthy for cryin' out loud.

 

[NHRevs]

& exactly who is Nate Silva ?

he';s no Garth Crooks or Mick McCarthy for cryin' out loud.

Nate Silver is a guy, who, if he quotes you odds on something, listen.

Detailed explanation would take a long time, but he's the guy behind 538.com that predicted the US presidential election. He's also the guy behind PECOTA which is a statistical prediction scheme in baseball which those who understand rave about. The SPI index of national team rankings for football he built is an interesting take - slightly different than ELO, and if you really want to know I can go dig out the mind-numbing details.

 

[Reidy's Bottle Of Grecian]

i'll pass.

as i said " he's no garth crooks or mick mc"