A draw I think would give us perhaps a 20% chance of still staying up, but we're definitely losing the next game with Brighton away.
The City game, even though I fully expect us to lose, we do play them smack bang between their two games against Real Madrid (Wednesday night away in Madrid, Sunday away to us, Thursday home to Madrid) and at a time where they'll likely be at least 4 points clear of Arsenal, possibly 6 if Chelsea can spawn a draw. The league would be over. They desperately want to get to their first Champions League final and they'll definitely still be in the tie by the second leg.
But we do have two on-paper favourable final games against teams who will have nothing to play for in Wolves and Bournemouth. They are about as good fixtures as we could choose.
Leeds fixtures:
City a, Newcastle h, West Ham a, Spurs h.
Forest fixtures:
Soton h, Chelsea a, Arsenal h, Palace a.
Leicester fixtures:
Fulham a, Liverpool h, Newcastle a, West Ham h.
It's hard to say any of those teams will pick up more than 4 points, and a draw tonight would mean, assuming they all pick up 4 points, would mean 6 points keeps us up from the remaining 4 games. It'd mean an away win though and we know we don't do them, but there would be at least a tiny flicker of hope up until the penultimate game.
Obviously a win tonight is massive, absolutely massive, and would make us favourites to stay up.