Relegation 2022/23

[Connor]

In which case, we're still in the title race then? Only 35 points off top with 18 games to go.

Correct

 

[John96]

anyone remember Leeds in about 2004 ? In real financial trouble just about stayed the season before when they appointed reidy . Started the season by selling off assets & not replacing them. Sacked reidy when they found themselves in real trouble , brought in a couple of crap free or loan types but with no money looked doomed and disappeared down the leagues .

There are definitely similarities there unfortunately.

We are in far more financial stress than Leeds were at that time. If we're relegated and don't come back up next season, then expect to see a club stuck in the lower league wildernes for a long time. The peril this club faces should not be underestimated.

COYB!

John.

 

[obn00b]

Those in the US will be able to watch all of our games live in the Championship next season right?

 

[canuckblue]

At least we've got time to get used to the idea so that when it happens, it'll be a lot less traumatic. Almost like when my late wife was diagnosed with cancer -- took 13 months, so when she finally passed there was really nothing left in the emotional gas tank. It's still going to be like a death in the family, but we'll be better prepared for it emotionally.

 

[Tony’s Carp]

Do we know how that 3 year rule applies to clubs when they go down? Does the 3 year cover Premier League seasons as well or does it start with the first season in EFL? I know there was some talk on moving to a system based on expenditures to revenue, but to be honest I don't know the latest. I'm curious if our previous losses or wages will be the biggest issue. Either way, there's no question that any violations will lead to point deductions.

I've had a look at the EFL rules and basically the calculation just continues to roll on the three year basis if you drop down. The loss threshold just carries over too - so for a year you were in the PL you are allowed the 35m loss you were allowed in the PL, then for any year you are in the EFL it's down to 13m.

So although the EFL threshold is 39m over three years, that only applies if you are in the EFL all three years. If you were in the PL for two years then spend one year in the EFL the P&S threshold is 35m + 35m + 13m = 83m over that three year period.

So to use Esk's calculations (yes, I know) if we lost 70m last season, broke even this season after pocketing the Gordon cash, we would then be in compliance for our two PL seasons and would have a permitted loss of 13m next season.

Breaking even (or at least staying within permitted loss) is doable:

If we break even this season with a one-off payment of 40m for Gordon then the equivalent of that next season is our parachute payment, also 40m+. Balances out.

We then lose an estimated 100m in tv and sponsorship revenue. So we probably need 100m in sales and wage savings to make up the shortfall. Let's say (fag packet estimates):

Doucoure and Mina leave at end of contracts, 10m wages saved
Sell Pickford for 20m, 5m wages saved.
Sell Onana for 35m, 5m wages saved.
Sell DCL for 20m, 5m wages saved.

That's 100m on the nose and we are looking at potentially breaking even for the season.

Obviously that doesn't leave us with a transfer budget, but we're still looking at the likes of Iwobi, Tarkowski, Godfrey, Holgate. Patterson and Gray as players who would potentially have sales value and we can pick and choose who to sell for transfer funds and who to keep as the foundation of our squad.

None of which is to say relegation is in any way a good thing, of course it isn't, just saying it probably isn't armageddon in terms of doing a Leeds / Sunderland. The way the rules are set up, especially the parachute payments, really is designed to prevent that from happening unless you are caught with a big squad of unshiftable players on big PL wages (us a few years ago, potentially Forest now).

 

[Dwight K Schrute]

I think given our lack of options, we are going to need to give serious consideration to playing Vinagre on the left of midfield. Think he could do a job there and he's miles better than McNeil.

Going to really have to start trying different things with what we have in order to try and stay up.

 

[neil999]

I think given our lack of options, we are going to need to give serious consideration to playing Vinagre on the left of midfield. Think he could do a job there and he's miles better than McNeil.

Going to really have to start trying different things with what we have in order to try and stay up.

Are you sure he's miles better?!?

 

[COYBL25]

I think given our lack of options, we are going to need to give serious consideration to playing Vinagre on the left of midfield. Think he could do a job there and he's miles better than McNeil.

Going to really have to start trying different things with what we have in order to try and stay up.

Dyche was McNeils ex manager mate, so he’ll know all about his limitations.

 

[matty1878]

I think given our lack of options, we are going to need to give serious consideration to playing Vinagre on the left of midfield. Think he could do a job there and he's miles better than McNeil.

Going to really have to start trying different things with what we have in order to try and stay up.

erm no rather he play him left back

 

[EvertonAjedrecista]

I think given our lack of options, we are going to need to give serious consideration to playing Vinagre on the left of midfield. Think he could do a job there and he's miles better than McNeil.

Going to really have to start trying different things with what we have in order to try and stay up.

i would like to give him a try, but maybe mcneil will be a different player under dyche, maybe not though

 

[Colonel Getafe]

This could all be a plot to get us relegated and rebuild with bielsa

Yeah, because I hear billionaire businessmen love having hundreds of millions wiped off their asset value, crashing out of the richest league in the world, losing out on a £100m+ TV deal, and facing financial chaos all so they can roll the dice on maybe getting back to exactly where they started at some point, IF everything goes right in early years. Genius plan. ?‍

 

[ForeverEverton]

After leaving the last window I think the rest of the season will be very very tough, the only position we will be in after Arsenal and Liverpool is bottom. You`d have to be beyond deluded to think we`d get anything from them games....

Then how do we cope with the rest, FYI 9 of our last 18 are top 6 (7), Brighton away and Newcastle..... so we got a 9 game mini season to save ourselves, we need 25 points from them 9.... NOT DO-ABLE

 

[Dwight K Schrute]

Are you sure he's miles better?!?

Yes. McNeil is one of the worst players I have ever seen. Even Burnley fans don't rate him. And Dyche bombed him out of the side at Burnley.

 

[Harryflashman]

After leaving the last window I think the rest of the season will be very very tough, the only position we will be in after Arsenal and Liverpool is bottom. You`d have to be beyond deluded to think we`d get anything from them games....

Then how do we cope with the rest, FYI 9 of our last 18 are top 6 (7), Brighton away and Newcastle..... so we got a 9 game mini season to save ourselves, we need 25 points from them 9.... NOT DO-ABLE

When you dispassionately go through the remaining fixtures and look at our squad and the opposition involved , even being generous it’s incredibly difficult to see where the required points come from .

 

[Jamiednm]

I’m actively making plans not to be here that final game , for two reasons . One I couldn’t bear the idea of witnessing us slip away, for the final time , due to the behaviour of these people and honestly I’m concerned how I’d react . Two if we do make it I’m adamant I’m not being part of a celebration of their failure so they can photograph it and stick it on walls or promotion videos and take it as an endorsement of their ineptitude.

I despise what they’ve done

Optimistic of you to think it will go to the final game. I reckon our Premier League exit will be confirmed in April at the latest.