If Kane forces the issue then Levy will have little choice in the matter
Spurs
- Thread starter Del-boy
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you're right, its an incredible haul and overall he has had an incredible career and will go down as one of the best. What is a shame though is he is throwing away the last 5 years of his very very short career. His last regular football was over two years ago now & it is a shame to see such a talent wasted over the last few years and probably the next few
I think ZZ threw Bales career away and Bale just said FU and I'll take every penny of your money
The big problem for Kane & Levy is it doesnt feel like there is going to be a bidding war for him. It feels like that Kane and Haaland will both end up in Manchester if they move & that really wont suit Levy who needs a bidding war
Well that's the point though; sure he has added to the bank balance, but the FU attitude was stupid. He has effectively thrown away three years of his career now and has said publicly he is happy to throw away a 4th.
My point is, when he is 50, he is going to look back and say "I monetised myself as well as I can" between ages 28-33, he is going to wonder what could have been over those years.
Who would have bought him
Who would have paid his wages
Would he have won trophies at those clubs
Madrid show very little loyalty ,so why should Bale
Why should Bale show loyality? - he shouldn't have shown loyalty to RM, but to himself. He had a choice, bank balance & punish RM or his career. He chose bank balance, which long term I think he will regret.
There would have been plenty of suitors if he was prepared to take a paycut, sure there is a "why should he" arguement, but for me he will reflect on his career rather than his wages.
catcherintherye
Player Valuation: £80m
Yes all very astute again mate.
The suspension (and likely ending) of FFP will help alleviate deflationary pressure in the market, but I don't think it will end it at all. I still see quite a big reduction in spend this summer. Best case scenario a lot of owners will have lent clubs money and will not be looking to be too reckless in what they do. Worst case clubs owners won't/can't do that and will not have money to buy.
There seems to me to be a lot of desperate sell action currently. From the outside it feels like Riaola is hawking Haaland about all over the place. From experience people tend to do that when they have got no interest in their commodity. You are getting similar for Kane, Levy is leeking stuff to the Athletic aboiut 120-140m price tags. I'll be very surprised if anything goes near to that.
The other consideration in all of this, is in a crash, not all asset classes fall equally. Again ending FFP will slightly redress this (I'm happy to explain my rationale but want to avoid a long post) but I still feel players 30+ will be hit the hardest in terms of fees. The issue is, that 30+ players fees have all but disappeared, so it is starting to impact players who are close to 30 (so say 28 and up). The market may fall 25-30% but they may fall 45-50% of it while younger players will hold vaue better. If the meet point was at around 120m last summer (which I'd say was optimistic) the new figure is around £60-£75m now.
Yeah - I would tend to agree - Rory Smith (NYT) did a really interesting piece on the possible transfer market this summer & it was really interesting.
I wont try to quote it as I dont have it to hand, but in short the hypothesis is the large sums (Haaland, Kane, M'Bappe, Sancho, Lukaku, Grealish maybe etc etc) will slosh around and obviously there will be a trickle down effect from that, but perhaps more interestingly the market might freeze below that. Clubs will struggle to offload, which will impact us in terms of the needed clearout, but will also have the knock on effect of possible freezing clubs to hold what they have. There will no longer be the 20 million sale of a Brewster or even an Iwobi.
The knock on impact of that freeze will be players managing there contracts with more thought - running them down & a lot more frees.
catcherintherye
Player Valuation: £80m
Yes I really like Rory Smith actually, he's a red I think but always found his stuff thought provoking.
I haven't read the article, but it's certainly an interesting one. They often say "premium" holds value through recessions and dips better which would support what he's saying. My own view is that what is considered premium, is very dependant on age too though. I'm not going to say people who are late 20's value will essentially go to 0, but it's a key factor in the decline. So of that list, Kane and Lukaku would be the two who i think will decline in value more than the rest who are in a better age range.
What happens with FFP matters too. If it's formally cancelled, it will help reverse this trend a bit. While I don't want to go down a rabbit hole on FFP, what I think most could agree with is that the impact of FFP was to be inflation busting, or at least inflation curbing. Lots of people think it was set up to protect the status quo, while I'm no fan of FFP I don't think that was the intention, but rather a conseuence. I always felt it was to tackle the surging inflation in spending in the game, and increasingly European teams being left behind.
One of the consequences (unintended) was that clubs needed to show a profit to "game" the system, and a great way to do it was to buy younger players, hold them for 2-3 years, decline the asset price and then sell having had 2-3 years of increasing prices. I don't really think it has served the game very well, and it has created an artificially high price for those under 25, and too low a price for those 30 and upwards. The thing is though, as Keynes said of the stock market, it's a bunch of people guessing a number between between 0-100 whereby the one who guesses 2/3rds of the average wins (so there's natural pressure downwards) it also led to that age profile where assets decline in value getting younger and younger. You are incentivising buying, holding and flipping. Well if the value is 0 at age 30, then a player who's 27, who will be 30 in years years when you want to flip makes you more cautious as you are buying a declining asset. So then the values of those 27+ declines, the next step is that those who are 25, and close to 27 start to decline. It just goes on and on.
Once you remove the need to show a profit, some of that pressure goes and there is probably a fairer value placed on older players. I don't know if it will have a huge impact this summer, but it will certainly help.
I haven't seen the rest of the article, but one weaness Smith (and many people in football) have is they just assume the status quo of 2020, or 2021 will just remain. It's not really how business works, and it's certainly not how business works in a recession. What you will see is going to be dependant upon a clubs ownership, and the league they play in. Leagues like France and Italy, both very hit, and both (especially France) selling leagues, then there will be enormous pressure. That's on a regional level. More broadly though, whats likely to happen, is the owners of clubs who can, and are prepared to spend large sums of money are going to be able to make big advances, with values way below their inherent value being about. Clubs who's owners will tick them over (I include the likes of Wolves in this, to a degree probably Liverpool, though they will be at the selling end of it) will probably belt tighten and adjust but put enough in to collapse. The final traunch will be owners who can't/won't do that and those clubs will be found out.
For this discussion, I think Dortmund and Spurs could fit into that category. The shock of missing out on the CL. In Dortmunds case relying on sales, in Spurs case having taken on huge debt last summer to finance Mourinho's spend. Southampton are another, who still haven't got Ings a new contract. What is a 29 year old Danny Ings, with 1 year on a deal going to be worth in the summer? He could well slip into the Rory Smith territory of almost being worthless.
So yes, I do see the market is going to be quite radically different. I think some early sellers are desperately trying to hold values (and football as an eco structure is desperate to do this). There will be winners and losers. But I don't think it will be as simple as saying look at the league table to find out who.
During one recession in football Leeds collapsed. The last two, Chelsea emerged under Abramovick, and the other we had was City under Mansour. Both came from relatively nowhere to dominate the league and in Europe.
For a club like us, who's main sponsor has allegedly grown by 4bn, we have a unique opportunity to pick a lot of good players up at a fraction of the cost. It's a big opportunity.
ForestBlue
Player Valuation: £10m
Don't forget not every footballer like football and some see as just a job and have little interest in it. Perhaps Bale is one of those or has just fallen out of love with the game and is just happy to receive the money.
I was gobsmacked when I first heard this but i've spoken to a few ex pro's over the years and they all say the same that they all played with fellow pro's with that attitude.
longers
Parcheggia l'autobus
Lets be honest, its nothing Richarlison and numerous other players haven't done many times before.
roydo
in memoriam - 1965-2024
Of course. But staying down like he had been shot was up/down there with the worst of them.
yea - that's a really fair point to be honest & maybe he just doesnt care. I'd argue his loveof wales suggests he probably does - but who knows?
Yeah but he’s such a nice bloke.
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