marty mcfly
Player Valuation: £40m
I am very contrary.I know your forum name means "to have been set against" or opposite but that does not mean you must counter every point with an argument.
The market value of the Everton Football Club is currently £49m, that is what the market thinks the club is worth. Now, let's consider what happens in a takeover. There's hardly ever a takeover at a premium greater than 100%, in fact average takeover premiums tend more towards 50%. But even at 100% that puts a value of £100m on the club - a long way from your earlier claim of US$2-400m (£130-260m).
I doubt even the most ardent asset stripper would consider the transfer values of players as a means of creating an investment return - even Mike Ashley has not gone that far.
We'll have to disagree on the future for broadcasting revenues.
Please now run through the basis of your US$2-400m valuation, I've explained already why I think £100m is absolute maximum based on two different valuation models.
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But it's not true to say that because the market values something that's its worth that - it really is just what it's shares are worth. Check out the shares of Nokia before Microsoft bought them. I told a friend to buy some when they where around 2.5 about a year before they bought over basically because I thought it was inevitable that they would be bought.
They went up to something like around 7 before the takeover. So while I was using the player's value as an extreme example and it probably wouldn't happen but it does happen in other industries and a buyer could be interested in Everton to do something similar although over a longer time.
The market factors in a lot of things but ultimately it's just people gambling.
btw - He still rejects not doing that.
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Ultimately say they bought the club at 100m with the players worth around 175m. Would Everton stay in the premier league if they sold Rom, Ross and Stones which would probably raise close to 100m. They probably would - Even without those 3 we're probably still a mid table team. What would be the value of Everton then? By your reckoning 100m because the players have no value. So then the "investor" after a bit of grief from the fans would sell again for 100m making himself a nice little 100m profit and we would have lost our 3 most valuable players.
The worst thing is that they wouldn't even need to have the money or any intention of investing in the club since they could leverage it against the value of the club.
This is what Kenwright means when he says once they do their due diligence they find these guys have no money. If it's a leveraged buyout then they definitely won't have money to invest because there will be no means to raise the money afterwards. Look at Utd, they're only getting back to investing in the squad now and that's Utd who can sign commercial deals of 600m.
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