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The Relegation Thread - sorry, couldn't be more original...

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TX Bill

TX Bill

Player Valuation: £80m
Ok, looking at the standings as of today, here's what we have:

Newcastle 29 points
Reading 28
Birmingham 27
Sunderland 27
Bolton 25
Fulham 23

I'm not including Derby in the discussion as it's a foregone conclusion that they're going down.

Here are the remaining schedules for each of the 6 teams. Each team has 8 matches remaining except for Bolton who has 9 (and they're gonna need it):

Newcastle
Fulham (H)
Spurs (A)
Reading (H)
Portsmouth (A)
Sunderland (H)
West Ham (A)
Chelsea (H)
Everton (A)

Reading
Birmingham (H)
Blackburn (A)
Newcastle (A)
Fulham (H)
Arsenal (H)
Wigan (A)
Spurs (H)
Derby (A)

Birmingham
Reading (A)
Man City (H)
Wigan (A)
Everton (H)
Villa (A)
Liverpool (H)
Fulham (A)
Blackburn (H)

Sunderland
Villa (A)
West Ham (H)
Fulham (A)
Man City (H)
Newcastle (A)
Boro (H)
Bolton (A)
Arsenal (H)

Bolton
Man United (A)
Man City (H)
Arsenal (H)
Villa (A)
West Ham (H)
Boro (A)
Spurs (A)
Sunderland (H)
Chelsea (A)

Fulham
Newcastle (A)
Derby (A)
Sunderland (H)
Reading (A)
Liverpool (H)
Man City (A)
Birmingham (H)
Portsmouth (A)

At first glance, a few observations:
  • Fulham have a good chance of staying up as they play 5 fellow relegation strugglers out of the 8.
  • Bolton have a massive job to do as they have mainly top half table teams for their last 9 and a final match against Chelsea away. Hope they don't need a result there.
  • As much as I'd like to see Newcastle go down, I just don't think there are enough games left for it to happen. To be sure of staying up, they MUST beat Fulham , Reading, & Sunderland as I don't see them getting anything out of the other 5 matches. Their last two are home to Chelsea and away to Everton. Not good if they need points from their last two matches. If Newcastle lose one or two of those must wins, then I think they're going down.

Overall, I could see Fulham pulling themselves out of the mire and barely making it. Sunderland's schedule is about in the middle but the trip to Newcastle will obviously be a big match that weekend. Birmingham have a pretty ugly schedule as well but I believe they've got enough quality to stay up whereas Reading's is a bit easier but their form hasn't been good enough.

One thing is for sure, just about every team in the mix (with the glaring exception of Bolton) plays at least 3 other fellow strugglers and some play 4 so three points against another relegation battling team is huge (you don't say TX.)

If I had to predict the other two going down with Derby, right now, I'd go with:

Bolton

and

deadheat between Reading and Newcastle
 
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Bolton and Birmingham for me, Bolton look clueless in all departments and Birmingham's failure to beat the jawdeez last night will cost them, and they have to play us and Villa too .
 

monty said:
Me to notlob and the barcodes because I despise both(n)(n)
Click to expand...

If this were an election those would be my votes too, although I'd also be happy if Fulham go down so we wouldn't have to take our obligatory Craven Cottage defeat next season.
 

I'll say Bolton and NUFC. Fulham seems to have an easy sched. Bolton's sched is rough and I have not hatred for Sunderland, Brum and Reading so I'm going to say NUFC.
 
Joining Derby will, I predict, be Sunderland and Fulham.

But I think Bolton and Brum ought to be very concerned.

Unfortunately, I believe that the smelly Barcodes will be alright. Gutted about that.
 
Agreed on Newcastle but if they haven't picked up points before their last three, they could really see themselves in a precarious position.

West Ham (A)
Chelsea (H)
Everton (A)

Frankly, I would see them getting more than one or two draws at the most out the possible 9 points. Arguably, their last three matches are the toughest of any of the 6 teams.
 
I hope Fulham stay up. Next year i am going to our game there and we are going to win. FACT.

(That is the one and only time i will use that word in such a manner. It it ghey, stop doing it. I'm talking to all of you! :P )
 

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