Top 4 Champions League Race

[catcherintherye]

It would be interesting for you to revisit this again say after 10 games and again at Xmas.

I know a lot of people have stats on league winners when top at Xmas, but not seen any data on after 10 games. Seems enough games in the bag at that point to start seeing which teams will compete.

I think this season being more competitive against the top 6 teams and taking some wins and draws in the process will get us there or thereabouts come the end of the season.

Also, our away form over the years has been terrible. These two next away games will probably give us a better indication of whether we're the real deal or not.

Yes I will certainly do one after 10 games. My suspicion is if you are 20+ points after 10 games you will normally finish in the top 4.

I've just done one for 13 points from 5 games. In the last 25 years it's happened 29 times (so about 1 per season) and on 24 occasions (so about 78%) teams finish in the top 4. This is especialy so in the last 10 years with 15 out of 16 teams doing so (we were the exception under Koeman in his 1st season).

On only 2 occasions a side has finished outside the top 8 in the last 25 years with an equivalent record (Portsmouth & Charlton).

I mean our position is probably slightly worse than through 4 games (as you'd expect, 12-4 is better than 13-5) but statistically we still remain in with a very good chance. Interestingly of the 2 teams that won 4 straight games and didn't finish top 4, both of them lost game 5, so we are past them at least!

 

[catcherintherye]

Next two games we face two of the most inform and under rated strikers in the division in Danny Ings and Callum Wilson.

If we can come away with 6 points we'll have done very very well.

It's funny really, I asked people what game we would need to win to be considered the real deal, and not a lot of comments about the derby, but lots saying the next 2 games. 6 points from the next 2, and I think people will really start to take notice.

 

[ForeverBlue92]

It's funny really, I asked people what game we would need to win to be considered the real deal, and not a lot of comments about the derby, but lots saying the next 2 games. 6 points from the next 2, and I think people will really start to take notice.

Same for me - our away record is shocking and the only way we get top 4 is if that changes this season.

When you look at our home/away games this season we have scored 11 goals at home in 3 games compared to just 3 away in 2.

For me it shows that we probably keep it tight more at the back when playing away which is good however for me its a concern when we are missing one of our two biggest goal threats.

Why for me I would either push Doucoure further forward and drop Gomes for Delph to sit back with Allan or play Gordon/Bernard for Iwobi who are not afraid to have a crack at goal / takes their man on.

 

[-Rob-]

It's funny really, I asked people what game we would need to win to be considered the real deal, and not a lot of comments about the derby, but lots saying the next 2 games. 6 points from the next 2, and I think people will really start to take notice.

For me we need to still be top after 10 games to be taken seriously as a top 4 contender. We're never going to be considered title condenders but if we can get to 40 points in the first half of the season then we'll have an extremly good position to build on to get a top 4 finish.

 

[Jebus_lives]

The next 3 games, particularly without Richarlison, will tell us where we are at. While our first 11 are very good, we lack quality replacements.

If we are to come out the next three games with similar results to the first 5 games, then I might start getting a bit excited.

I still think we'll finish between 5-7.

 

[BornBlue76]

It's funny really, I asked people what game we would need to win to be considered the real deal, and not a lot of comments about the derby, but lots saying the next 2 games. 6 points from the next 2, and I think people will really start to take notice.

tbh as much as we cared about the derby I didn’t feel it was season defining. Beating the likes of Leicester, Saints, wolves (where many others will drop points) is what will push up forward. If we win the next 2 that is beyond massive. Just seeing the results this weekend show the statement that would make on the league

 

[Zatara]

@catcherintherye

I think the key is to extend our lead over 5th position.

Next game for example, Leicester vs Arsenal and Chelsea vs United are the two standout matches.

If both are draws and we win then were 6pts ahead of Arsenal and Leicester + 7 pts ahead of chelsea and 9pts ahead of united (who have a game in hand).

Then the following games are;

Burnley vs Chelsea
Man Utd vs Arsenal
Leeds vs Leicester

Those games could easily go in our favour and if we beat Newcastle we could see ourselves 9pts ahead of the closest going into the United match.

After that we have Fulham and Leeds which are both winnable.

If somehow we can take 10-12pts from the next 5 we will be in a strong position.

If we win the next 2 though we should have a gap so any slips would still mean we have breathing space.

 

[LABlue2]

Yes I will certainly do one after 10 games. My suspicion is if you are 20+ points after 10 games you will normally finish in the top 4.

I've just done one for 13 points from 5 games. In the last 25 years it's happened 29 times (so about 1 per season) and on 24 occasions (so about 78%) teams finish in the top 4. This is especialy so in the last 10 years with 15 out of 16 teams doing so (we were the exception under Koeman in his 1st season).

On only 2 occasions a side has finished outside the top 8 in the last 25 years with an equivalent record (Portsmouth & Charlton).

I mean our position is probably slightly worse than through 4 games (as you'd expect, 12-4 is better than 13-5) but statistically we still remain in with a very good chance. Interestingly of the 2 teams that won 4 straight games and didn't finish top 4, both of them lost game 5, so we are past them at least!

It would be interesting to see the data as I think you might potentially want to look at teams who had 13+ points, but were not in the top [4?] in previous seasons. I bet that percentage is lower because it will exclude someone like Man City winning their first 5 games when they were champions the previous season.

 

[Osamabindiesel]

Same for me - our away record is shocking and the only way we get top 4 is if that changes this season.

When you look at our home/away games this season we have scored 11 goals at home in 3 games compared to just 3 away in 2.

For me it shows that we probably keep it tight more at the back when playing away which is good however for me its a concern when we are missing one of our two biggest goal threats.

Why for me I would either push Doucoure further forward and drop Gomes for Delph to sit back with Allan or play Gordon/Bernard for Iwobi who are not afraid to have a crack at goal / takes their man on.

Our away form definitely needs to improve this year as you said (so far so good). It’s not even necessarily against the top teams. They should win or at least draw at home. We have to take advantage of the bottom dwellers and mid table teams.

That will be the difference. Aim for wins and avoid dropping points with silly mistakes. Less draws. If we can do that, it would be very difficult not to achieve top 4.

 

[catcherintherye]

It would be interesting to see the data as I think you might potentially want to look at teams who had 13+ points, but were not in the top [4?] in previous seasons. I bet that percentage is lower because it will exclude someone like Man City winning their first 5 games when they were champions the previous season.

Thats a good way, of doing it. I will go over it, but I think in most cases they do not finish in the top 4, but tend to finish in the top 7.

 

[Blue Shoes]

Really big test next weekend with 2 players missing and our goalkeeper issue

Same as v brighton really.

 

[Kure]

7 points out the next 3 games would keep us in the title race.

 

[Blue Shoes]

For me we need to still be top after 10 games to be taken seriously as a top 4 contender. We're never going to be considered title condenders but if we can get to 40 points in the first half of the season then we'll have an extremly good position to build on to get a top 4 finish.

This season has the potential to be utterly nuts though, when you look at the results, with the scorelines and the strange situation everyone is in, another Leicester like title win is certainly not out of the question.

Liverpool, united and City have already been anhilated and there's been so many dropped points from the better teams against the lesser teams, that's why it's pointless people saying "who have they played" when describing us.

 

[Toffeeslam]

We really won’t know until we know where we are in January, if we are there or there abouts then who knows

 

[witchdoc187]

Imagine we finished 4th.. 1 point ahead of Liverpool.

They'd probably petition to change the rules and have a play off where Liverpool play TNS and we play the champions League semi finalists and they bring a ref out of retirement for the game. Hahaha only joking that could never happen, way too far fetched and obvious