Not looking good from the bookies...
Correct Score: Burnley 1-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
- Sky Sports: Wednesday, 19:30
What a massive game we have on our hands here.
Just four points separate second-bottom Burnley and fourth-bottom Everton, with both having 10 games remaining, meaning this is a huge football match.
The Clarets were comfortably beaten by Manchester City at the weekend, but only lost 2-0, meaning their goal difference is currently the best of the teams in the bottom four.
That was their fourth straight loss, though their home xG process has been the glimmer of hope for Sean Dyche's side in a difficult season (1.24 xGF, 1.42 xGA per game), and that, along with Everton's torrid away results and process, makes this a favourable match-up for the Clarets.
Frank Lampard has overseen four away league matches as Everton manager, losing all four by an aggregate score of 12-2, with their xG process over those games reading a pathetic 0.59 xGF and 2.68 xGA per game.
They have been simply horrible on the road under the new manager, and weren't much better before he arrived with their season-long xG figures away from home standing at 1.01 xGF and 1.99 xGA per game.
It is therefore hard to make a case for the Toffees here, especially given Burnley have averaged 1.48 xGF and 1.33 xGA per home game against non-big-six opponents this term.
The result of this game is set to have a huge bearing on who goes down and who stays up this season, with a Burnley win seeing their chances of going down reduce to 37% while simultaneously increasing Everton's chances to 44%.
A draw harms Burnley's chances more than Everton's, while an Everton win would see Burnley's relegation percentage increase to 76%, and all-but seal the fate of the bottom three.
The first of those results looks likely given the figures discussed though