Crypto currency (IF banned from CA)

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

Bitcoin has been on a 13 year bull run with 5 80% corrections along the way,the corrections shake out the weak hands.
I don't see this trend changing, the volatility is the downside to the big gains.
Long term thinking is the key,I look at crashes as great buying opportunities.
There's fear in the markets ATM,that's when idiots like @DuuuncanHadaPigeon surface!

I completely missed that you called me an idiot here. Laughable, you sir, are the idiot as you have no clue what you are talking about.

Everytime I bring up a slightly technical point, you never respond because you know nothing, it's hilarious. You can prove me wrong about not being an idiot any time you like..

 

[Gabagool]

When is the Bitcoin bounce supposed to happen again?

I'm the resident BTC bear and don't think it is going to bounce at all, @nikom court predicted it would be 100k about now

I'll take a slightly different view, and make the prediction that price level chops for a little while longer and bottoms over the next few weeks before getting a strong bounce. Historically, any BTC local low with a long lower wick (indicating a liquidation cascade from excess leverage coupled with thin liquidity) has always been filled and then subsequently taken out by price action in the months that follow. So, if you take the fractal from May (where max pain was a long, sideways movement before posting the low at 29k) and apply it to the current formation, you could see the wick (from Dec 4) being filled and the low coming in at 38-42k, before getting the bounce and successful retest of 53k before the next leg up. As to whether that ultimately leads to a lower high being posted (and the end of the cycle) by the end of Q1 or goes on longer to post another all-time high (lending credence to the BTC super-cycle theory) remains to be seen.

What I think people need to bear in mind is that market participants and the liquidity flows of earlier cycles and the current one are worlds apart. Retail investors make up ~15% of liquidity across all exchanges, and so making profit in this current environment grows significantly more difficult with each passing year. Market movements will be dictated more by wider macro trends (numerous potential rate hikes incoming) rather than a ‘death cross’ of different moving averages or bearish formations you find in a copy of Technical Analysis for Dummies. So whilst BTC could obviously find itself back in the 20s or 30s in the face of more hawkish monetary policy, it’s difficult to envisage a large enough exogenous factor causing BTC to fall beneath 10-20k, because all on-chain metrics clearly point towards a net flow towards long-term holders.

 

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

I'll take a slightly different view, and make the prediction that price level chops for a little while longer and bottoms over the next few weeks before getting a strong bounce. Historically, any BTC local low with a long lower wick (indicating a liquidation cascade from excess leverage coupled with thin liquidity) has always been filled and then subsequently taken out by price action in the months that follow. So, if you take the fractal from May (where max pain was a long, sideways movement before posting the low at 29k) and apply it to the current formation, you could see the wick (from Dec 4) being filled and the low coming in at 38-42k, before getting the bounce and successful retest of 53k before the next leg up. As to whether that ultimately leads to a lower high being posted (and the end of the cycle) by the end of Q1 or goes on longer to post another all-time high (lending credence to the BTC super-cycle theory) remains to be seen.

What I think people need to bear in mind is that market participants and the liquidity flows of earlier cycles and the current one are worlds apart. Retail investors make up ~15% of liquidity across all exchanges, and so making profit in this current environment grows significantly more difficult with each passing year. Market movements will be dictated more by wider macro trends (numerous potential rate hikes incoming) rather than a ‘death cross’ of different moving averages or bearish formations you find in a copy of Technical Analysis for Dummies. So whilst BTC could obviously find itself back in the 20s or 30s in the face of more hawkish monetary policy, it’s difficult to envisage a large enough exogenous factor causing BTC to fall beneath 10-20k, because all on-chain metrics clearly point towards a net flow towards long-term holders.

Interesting, can you point me to the on chain metrics for long term holders. I'd like to take a look.

I like to look at the DXY, generally when it is strong (anything over 95/96) BTC performs badly as the general market is in risk off mode.

 

[Gabagool]

Interesting, can you point me to the on chain metrics for long term holders. I'd like to take a look.

I like to look at the DXY, generally when it is strong (anything over 95/96) BTC performs badly as the general market is in risk off mode.

It was a graph posted by Glass Node about a week ago which was retweeted by an on-chain analyst - I'll send it over if I find it again.

Yes DXY and BTC's inverse correlation has been a clear indicator over the past couple of months, so whilst not causal, is definitely a factor to consider when it comes to overall price action:

 

[Gabagool]

I'll take a slightly different view, and make the prediction that price level chops for a little while longer and bottoms over the next few weeks before getting a strong bounce.

Reasoning for this is that open interest is back to pre-liquidation levels and funding is still positive

 

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

It was a graph posted by Glass Node about a week ago which was retweeted by an on-chain analyst - I'll send it over if I find it again.

Yes DXY and BTC's inverse correlation has been a clear indicator over the past couple of months, so whilst not causal, is definitely a factor to consider when it comes to overall price action:

Yep, the DXY is a big one for me. Another thing I think, which is slightly less technical, is who else is left to buy?

The richest man in the world (musk, maybe not the richest but you get my point) already bought and the price moved around 10% up I think?

Point being, the liquidity in BTC is so high that it takes an extraordinary amount of economic energy to move it up or down. One reason why I think my 10k prediction will fall short, because it will basically need hundreds of billions to sell, which I don't see happening. I am just going of past trends with that call.

Low liquidity is good for price movements, up or down. Have you had a look at HEX? And maybe more importantly Pulsechain, which will launch soon

 

[Paris]

The Turkish Lira is the new cryptocurrency of choice….

 

[Gabagool]

Yep, the DXY is a big one for me. Another thing I think, which is slightly less technical, is who else is left to buy?

The richest man in the world (musk, maybe not the richest but you get my point) already bought and the price moved around 10% up I think?

Point being, the liquidity in BTC is so high that it takes an extraordinary amount of economic energy to move it up or down. One reason why I think my 10k prediction will fall short, because it will basically need hundreds of billions to sell, which I don't see happening. I am just going of past trends with that call.

Low liquidity is good for price movements, up or down. Have you had a look at HEX? And maybe more importantly Pulsechain, which will launch soon

You’re probably not going to like the comparison, but I’d liken the HEX community (and Richard Heart) to a modern-day (decentralised) Jonestown; imo there are enough red flags there to equip a Chinese military parade.

That’s not to say you can’t make good money off of Ponzis (see also: Cardano) if you get in early enough, but I would just recommend taking profits regularly and not being left bag-holding as the casino turns against you in the next bear market. Marrying your bags is a dangerous game, and often only succeeds in clouding your judgment, especially when new evidence comes to light that the project isn’t hitting the goals and promises that it laid out in its original value proposition. However, until the project does actually go to zero, there's reason enough to continue making the case that it isn't a Ponzi.

I personally haven’t seen anyone invested in it whose opinion I value, and who typically have good long-term vision and understanding of meta trends at play (see: 2020 DeFi summer, NFTs, and more recently the rotation of L1 protocols - SOL -> LUNA -> AVAX).

The irony of these projects offering high APYs is that people outside of Crypto don’t trust that the numbers add up and that it’s essentially a Ponzi, and those within Crypto don’t opt for these lock-ups because the returns are nowhere near high enough to justify the high opportunity cost.

 

[Woolverhampton_Blue]

When you buy a stock and sell it later for a higher price, who is giving you the profit other than another stock enthusiast?

The difference is that stocks are actual equity in a company that does something.

What is the actual underlying value of bitcoins and the like? Genuinely interested.

 

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

You’re probably not going to like the comparison, but I’d liken the HEX community (and Richard Heart) to a modern-day (decentralised) Jonestown; imo there are enough red flags there to equip a Chinese military parade.

That’s not to say you can’t make good money off of Ponzis (see also: Cardano) if you get in early enough, but I would just recommend taking profits regularly and not being left bag-holding as the casino turns against you in the next bear market. Marrying your bags is a dangerous game, and often only succeeds in clouding your judgment, especially when new evidence comes to light that the project isn’t hitting the goals and promises that it laid out in its original value proposition. However, until the project does actually go to zero, there's reason enough to continue making the case that it isn't a Ponzi.

I personally haven’t seen anyone invested in it whose opinion I value, and who typically have good long-term vision and understanding of meta trends at play (see: 2020 DeFi summer, NFTs, and more recently the rotation of L1 protocols - SOL -> LUNA -> AVAX).

The irony of these projects offering high APYs is that people outside of Crypto don’t trust that the numbers add up and that it’s essentially a Ponzi, and those within Crypto don’t opt for these lock-ups because the returns are nowhere near high enough to justify the high opportunity cost.

I appreciate the genuine response to HEX for once, but I do feel I have to pick apart some of your arguments against it. In the most civil way I can.

I agree the hex community can be cultish, but you cannot argue that nearly every crypto community is the same, I would argue especially bitcoins.

Just like the communities, if hex is a Ponzi, then so is every other crypto. To label just hex as a ponzi is absurd and without reason, in my opinion.

I can't speak to who you regard as a trusted voice but they have all said no to hex from day 1 and all missed out on 10,000x

The most important part is when you say 'project' that offers high APY, HEX is not a project, it is a fully complete smart contract that is completely decentralised. There are no admin keys, it has been audited 3 times and has 100% uptime in over 2 years.

It is actually what crypto was designed to be, just like satoshis vision. A fully complete project, no roadmaps, no promises, just true cryptocurrency with NO admin keys, did I mention 100% uptime.

 

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

The difference is that stocks are actual equity in a company that does something.

What is the actual underlying value of bitcoins and the like? Genuinely interested.

You have been misled. Generally, the price of a stock has nothing do with that companies performance, the price of a stock is nearly all due to speculation.

 

[Woolverhampton_Blue]

But it’s speculation based on an actual entity. What are crypto coins based on?

 

[DuuuncanHadaPigeon]

But it’s speculation based on an actual entity. What are crypto coins based on?

It's speculation.

the value of a stock comes from the next guy buying not the fact that they sell iphones for £1000.

Elon Musk said a while back he thinks the price of TSLA is way overvalued, this is because the price of pretty much all stock prices are speculation, people buy them hoping to sell them to the next guy for a higher price than they paid.

Not dividends, not stock buybacks but speculation. Much like BTC and nearly every other crypto.

I am not a crypto fanatic, the blockchain is a slow expensive database and any business would be crazy to use it over an excel spreadsheet. It does have a couple of very important features however, it is censorship resistant and it removes inefficient middlemen.

 

[Gabagool]

I appreciate the genuine response to HEX for once, but I do feel I have to pick apart some of your arguments against it. In the most civil way I can.

I agree the hex community can be cultish, but you cannot argue that nearly every crypto community is the same, I would argue especially bitcoins.

Just like the communities, if hex is a Ponzi, then so is every other crypto. To label just hex as a ponzi is absurd and without reason, in my opinion.

I can't speak to who you regard as a trusted voice but they have all said no to hex from day 1 and all missed out on 10,000x

The most important part is when you say 'project' that offers high APY, HEX is not a project, it is a fully complete smart contract that is completely decentralised. There are no admin keys, it has been audited 3 times and has 100% uptime in over 2 years.

It is actually what crypto was designed to be, just like satoshis vision. A fully complete project, no roadmaps, no promises, just true cryptocurrency with NO admin keys, did I mention 100% uptime.

I wasn’t saying that any of this critique is unique to HEX, rather that when looking into it, there was enough doubt cast; whether that be on the development stage of such DeFi projects at that point in time, doubts over the HEX origin address, or on the character of RH etc.

That’s not to say it is a Ponzi as I’m not an expert on its tokenomics, but given there were a number of other promising projects to invest in during market low points, it gave me enough reason to look elsewhere (at the time I had a bag of VET which thankfully 10,000X’d during the same period).

 

[Death]

Once that staples centre deal gets announced then Cro is on the way to the moon.