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Crypto currency (IF banned from CA)

I found this very illuminating:

[excerpt here, full interview below]:

I’m a savvy investor, and by “savvy investor,” I mean I put my money into index funds and ignore it for several years. During that time, there are dividends and share buybacks where the companies put their profits into me. I then eventually sell it to somebody else. And my gain is not just the difference between what I bought it for and what somebody else bought it for, but that plus the benefit of all the dividends and interest.

So the stock market and the bond market are a positive-sum game. There are more winners than losers. Cryptocurrency starts with zero-sum. So it starts with a world where there can be no more winning than losing. We have systems like this. It’s called the horse track. It’s called the casino. Cryptocurrency investing is really provably gambling in an economic sense. And then there’s designs where those power bills have to get paid somewhere. So instead of zero-sum, it becomes deeply negative-sum.

Effectively, then, the economic analogies are gambling and a Ponzi scheme. Because the profits that are given to the early investors are literally taken from the later investors. This is why I call the space overall, a “self-assembled” Ponzi scheme. There’s been no intent to make a Ponzi scheme. But due to its nature, that is the only thing it can be.

ROBINSON:

Is that why you see the pile of Super Bowl ads for investing in cryptocurrency? Because the people who are the early investors need to keep finding new suckers and trying to convince people that putting their retirement savings into cryptocurrency is a sound idea?

WEAVER:

Yep. Because it’s a self-created pyramid scheme, you have to keep getting new suckers in. As soon as the number of suckers dries up, it collapses. And because it’s not zero-sum, but deeply negative-sum, there are actually a lot of mechanisms that can cause it to collapse suddenly to zero. We saw this just the other day with the Terra stablecoin and the Luna side token. This was basically another Ponzi scheme implemented in the larger space of Ponzi schemes.


Full article:
Interesting read
 


Do they all collapse at the same time, like dominos, or is there one or two (BTC, ?) that holds out some residual value and dies a slow, painful, and terribly enjoyable death?
There’s a difference between Tether (and other “stablecoins”) than Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. Tether is supposed to be pinned to the US Dollar so the price shouldn’t really move. The chart posted above is the market cap and shows that people are taking money out of Tether. The cryptocurrencies tend to move on a similar trajectory to each other.

If you look at this website and look at the charts you will see their price movement is very similar.


If the big two (bitcoin and ethereum) are tanking the others tend to tank. If they are doing well the others tend to do well.

EDIT: Should have mentioned. It Tether continues to see people pull their money out and it loses its pin to the dollar expect a blood bath across all crypto. One similar thing (Terra) lost over 95% of its value recently but the market cap was relatively low. Tether’s is currently about $75bn so if similar happened then it will see a lot of people wiped out
 
There’s a difference between Tether (and other “stablecoins”) than Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. Tether is supposed to be pinned to the US Dollar so the price shouldn’t really move. The chart posted above is the market cap and shows that people are taking money out of Tether. The cryptocurrencies tend to move on a similar trajectory to each other.

If you look at this website and look at the charts you will see their price movement is very similar.


If the big two (bitcoin and ethereum) are tanking the others tend to tank. If they are doing well the others tend to do well.

EDIT: Should have mentioned. It Tether continues to see people pull their money out and it loses its pin to the dollar expect a blood bath across all crypto. One similar thing (Terra) lost over 95% of its value recently but the market cap was relatively low. Tether’s is currently about $75bn so if similar happened then it will see a lot of people wiped out

So it's a bank run then? I admittedly don't know much about crypto finance, but then I've suggested there isn't much to know about it either. It seems like volatility/liquidity, valuation, and market confidence are three large determinants of price. Since there is little tangible value to crypto, seems like a bank run coupled with weakened confidence might crater all of crypto 1.0.
 
So it's a bank run then? I admittedly don't know much about crypto finance, but then I've suggested there isn't much to know about it either. It seems like volatility/liquidity, valuation, and market confidence are three large determinants of price. Since there is little tangible value to crypto, seems like a bank run coupled with weakened confidence might crater all of crypto 1.0.
Tether could very well turn into a bank run and the repercussions could be very very grim. Might not happen of course but I’d suggest reading up a bit on them if you’re interested. They’ve been blocking an audit for years, claiming they are doing their own. Pretty sure it’s built on a house of cards
 
So it's a bank run then? I admittedly don't know much about crypto finance, but then I've suggested there isn't much to know about it either. It seems like volatility/liquidity, valuation, and market confidence are three large determinants of price. Since there is little tangible value to crypto, seems like a bank run coupled with weakened confidence might crater all of crypto 1.0.
What does crypto 2.0 look like?
Is anyone selling?
 

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