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ECHO Comment: "Fears of Witch-hunt Against Liverpool FC" part 2

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Saint Domingo said:
Great post, I’ve often mentioned on here that I think Klopp missed his chance at success in his early seasons. 15/16 people can rightly say it wasn’t his team etc. Rodgers has a poor start, but the reality is that he had a team with Coutinho Firmino Sturridge Wijnaldum Milner Lallana and finished 8th in the premier league. Leicester City won the league that season. Liverpool won away at Chelsea and City yet came 8th in the league! In a reoccurring theme some good cup runs covered up questionable league form.

16/17. What’s the excuse for this? No Europe to contend with, threw the FA Cup. Guardiola and Mourinho in their first seasons at new clubs with European commitments. New manager at Chelsea who had never been in the prem. Wenger’s Arsenal continuing to decline. Mane Firmino Coutinho upfront. Scraped into fourth and beaten by Southampton home and away in the league cup semi (not just beaten absolutely embarrassed, the away leg could have been 5-0). Somehow finishing fourth was dressed up as a huge step forward and the front three got some weird branding and all of a sudden everything was ok even though Mourinho had the league cup and Europa in his pocket, Wenger had another FA Cup, and Conte had the title! Yet Klopp was being hailed as potentially the best of the lot! Utterly bizarre. I wrote at the end of that season that Klopp had missed his chance at this point as once Guardiola and Mourinho got in situ at City and United the door would be shut.

The season after the two of these clubs are 1 and 2 with City a country mile ahead of Liverpool whose title challenge was over by mid September. Out of both domestic cups immediately but all is forgotten thanks to the easiest CL group in history and a run to the final entirely dependent on weak opposition, poor refereeing against City then one good home performance v Roma. Ultimately it led to nothing with Madrid showing they were a long way off the continental elite. The arrogance of the media at the time proclaiming that the other semi final between Bayern and Real was ‘poor quality’ was staggering after watching the basketball game of Liverpool Roma that was more akin to a Europa league punchout.

Now I see Liverpool as somewhere between 4th and 6th dependent on how Emery’s Arsenal and United shape up. City and Chelsea are clearly better footballing teams with better players and better managers and should already be more ahead than they already are. I even see Spurs without European distractions being more consistent in line with previous seasons. The issue is that just solidifying top 4 won’t be enough for Klopp as he has actively spun a narrative of this year by year growth that is going to culminate in the title and potentially a CL win. Alisson Van Dijk and Keita were the world class pieces, the final step. What happens if they don’t win anything or even worse they drop out the top 4? Does Klopp go again and be trusted by FSG to break more world record transfer fees when he’s delivered nothing? The project would be over and Klopp would probably go before he was fired especially as the rest of the top 6 look like they will only kick on next season (especially Arsenal and Chelsea).

Klopp’s reign in is on a knife edge. He has to have Liverpool in the CL knockouts and within a handful of points of City come February otherwise it’s effectively a failed season even at that point. The way they’re playing at the moment neither of these things are certain. They’ve not even had any major injuries yet either. If Van Dijk or Firmino missed a run of games the whole house of cards could come down. Liverpool fans don’t like this narrative but this is what 3 trophyless seasons and a league position no higher than 4th means for a manager at a big club. They can’t get away from that. He would have been fired at any of City United or Chelsea no question.
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Thanks mate and yes I make you right.

The two issues I'd emphasise there are that firstly they haven't replaced Coutinho and secondly the teams around them are finally starting to get their act together.

Coutinho was massively underrated. Their best player by some distance. They haven't replaced him or come close to replacing him.

The season they really through it away was the one Chelsea won the league. Phsycologically they just couldn't handle Chelsea winning 11 or 12 on the run. Essentially they did nothing wrong and found themselves in 2nd 5 points behind very quickly. They then imploded in January. Klopp just about held it together and the Europa League run gave them a bit of focus. I can see something similar happening this season, when they realise in spite of their amazing run they are getting further away from the top a feeling of panic and entitlement will kick in.

Manchester City are now a serious force and are set up to dominate the league for a period of time. Most of their players are in their early 20's and settled. I can't see Pep wanting to leave until he's conquered Europe. I know he's talked of retiring but City will be very very keen for him to establish an era of dominance akin to Ferguson's at United. If he needs more support above or below he will get it. Ferguson won his first league with United at 52, Pep is 47 and well on his way to retaining the title. He really could build a dynasty that overtakes even Fergusons.

Aside from that Arsenal are starting to get things right now too. Spurs will be a challenge in the new ground (hence why it's essential we get our move sorted, hard to compete in an old stadium) and Chelsea look good under Sarri. I think Klopp and Liverpool may well have missed their moment.
 
Mikey_Fitzgerald said:
This feels a bit premature to be honest

I know it's difficult for us to admit it due to our club allegiance, but they're a good side and he's an excellent coach

I'd be shocked if they finish any lower than 4th, and I think that until Man City pull real distance between them in the league, they are genuine contenders to win it along with Chelsea. It's one of those three who will be standing with the trophy come May I think
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What do you think is premature about it mate? It's mainly a hypothesis about what might happen, and an acknowledgement they've had a dip in form. I think thats fairly irrefutable.

I agree with the rest but I'm not sure anything I've said contradicts it. They are a good team, with a fantastic coach. I would back them to finish top 4 as well however I'm still not sure that will be enough to keep his job. I also think thats looking increasingly like a best case scenario.

I think City are overwhelming favourites, Liverpool are one of 4-5 others that could win it. However most of the other teams have a history of getting stronger as the season goes on. I'm not sure the gap is big enough for Liverpool currently.

 
Steve0 said:
Hate to pat myself on the back but I predicted that a team having to play Henderson and Fabinho instead of Coutinho and Can would struggle massively and so it has come to pass.

They haven't really got anyone they can sell other than Mane. The wages of Salah and Firmino mean they'd be difficult to find a buyer for even if they wanted to sell.
VVD isn't very good, Allisons weaknesses are becoming apparent week on week, the rest of their defence is limited, Milner is old, Sturridge looks kaput after a bried renaissance earlier in the season, Speedy Mo has reverted to type, Firmino looks half the player of our Brazilian, Kaita and Fabinho and two of the worst buys in living memeory, hundreds of millions in debt......worrying, very, very worrying.

Big stand though.
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A lot of truth in that, but I really rate VVD. Alison looks good to me too, but probably not worth the fee overall.

The point about the front 3 is a good one. Let's have it right, Salah would be sold if they could have got a buyer. Clearly they haven't. That's been a mistake for FSG.

I do wonder if they had half planned the spending spree based upon a future big money sale of Salah for say 200 million. For their sake I hope not, as that debt will be wracking up and the number of saleable assets are diminishing all the time.
 
Mikey_Fitzgerald said:
It's designed that way to ensure the big clubs have as much chance as possible to get to the latter rounds

It's amazing how little shame these clubs have. They have a tournament where the odds are already massively stacked in their favour and even if they're stupid enough to mess it up they can still back door their way into the Europa League
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Also designed to ensure those same clubs keep feeding in the closed shop money making trough!

"Champions League" - kopites haven't won the league since 1990 yet the cult's sense of entitlement thinks they should be playing in this every year!
 

Mikey_Fitzgerald said:
This feels a bit premature to be honest

I know it's difficult for us to admit it due to our club allegiance, but they're a good side and he's an excellent coach

I'd be shocked if they finish any lower than 4th, and I think that until Man City pull real distance between them in the league, they are genuine contenders to win it along with Chelsea. It's one of those three who will be standing with the trophy come May I think
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Mikey putting his usual positive slant on things for the reds.
 
catcherintherye said:
A lot of truth in that, but I really rate VVD. Alison looks good to me too, but probably not worth the fee overall.

The point about the front 3 is a good one. Let's have it right, Salah would be sold if they could have got a buyer. Clearly they haven't. That's been a mistake for FSG.

I do wonder if they had half planned the spending spree based upon a future big money sale of Salah for say 200 million. For their sake I hope not, as that debt will be wracking up and the number of saleable assets are diminishing all the time.
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There's get out of jail money with Sane and Van Djerk (autocorrect left for amusement value). Salah, Firminho and Allison would attract a decent wedge and take off a big operating cost in their wages. Fabinho and Keita could probably be expended at a loss if need be. They could cut one or two of them and have a punt on a cheaper younger replacement if need be. FSG are a business, they'll know it'll hurt performance on the field but they should have thought about their contingencies over this. Either way, would hit them harder than they wanted.
 
Yarrgh said:
There's get out of jail money with Sane and Van Djerk (autocorrect left for amusement value). Salah, Firminho and Allison would attract a decent wedge and take off a big operating cost in their wages. Fabinho and Keita could probably be expended at a loss if need be. They could cut one or two of them and have a punt on a cheaper younger replacement if need be. FSG are a business, they'll know it'll hurt performance on the field but they should have thought about their contingencies over this. Either way, would hit them harder than they wanted.
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With the exception of VVD it's hard to see them selling many of the others for big money. In fact it would be at a significant loss.

I am not sure that they would even get an enormous profit on VVD currently. He's what 26 now? I can't see over the next year or 2 people spending a fortune say £125 million plus on a lad who is 27+.
 

catcherintherye said:
With the exception of VVD it's hard to see them selling many of the others for big money. In fact it would be at a significant loss.

I am not sure that they would even get an enormous profit on VVD currently. He's what 26 now? I can't see over the next year or 2 people spending a fortune say £125 million plus on a lad who is 27+.
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Not thinking they would make big profit on any of them, but if a fire sale was required, that on top of what is guaranteed from the league and tv deals and various sponsorships, etc. would get them out of any hole. It'd seriously damage them in the short and mid term but they would survive.

But I do think you were right that they are gambling on a big sale from Salah or Mane to flip the squad. It's great business if it works, but can go very wrong if the wheels fall off. They'll be praying that Salah return to some semblance of form is maintained.
 
catcherintherye said:
Thanks mate and yes I make you right.

The two issues I'd emphasise there are that firstly they haven't replaced Coutinho and secondly the teams around them are finally starting to get their act together.

Coutinho was massively underrated. Their best player by some distance. They haven't replaced him or come close to replacing him.

The season they really through it away was the one Chelsea won the league. Phsycologically they just couldn't handle Chelsea winning 11 or 12 on the run. Essentially they did nothing wrong and found themselves in 2nd 5 points behind very quickly. They then imploded in January. Klopp just about held it together and the Europa League run gave them a bit of focus. I can see something similar happening this season, when they realise in spite of their amazing run they are getting further away from the top a feeling of panic and entitlement will kick in.

Manchester City are now a serious force and are set up to dominate the league for a period of time. Most of their players are in their early 20's and settled. I can't see Pep wanting to leave until he's conquered Europe. I know he's talked of retiring but City will be very very keen for him to establish an era of dominance akin to Ferguson's at United. If he needs more support above or below he will get it. Ferguson won his first league with United at 52, Pep is 47 and well on his way to retaining the title. He really could build a dynasty that overtakes even Fergusons.

Aside from that Arsenal are starting to get things right now too. Spurs will be a challenge in the new ground (hence why it's essential we get our move sorted, hard to compete in an old stadium) and Chelsea look good under Sarri. I think Klopp and Liverpool may well have missed their moment.
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The thing that gets me is that if they just made reasonable claims no one could argue with them. Anything along the lines of ‘we’ve had a fortuitous group and draw in the CL but beat what was put in front of us and thanks to a few good home performances we’re now in a final that we’re massive underdogs for against the only side to retain the trophy but we’ll give it our best go and hope we win it’. They could also say ‘we’ve strengthened our defence and keeper this season but will have to hope the new midfield recruits make up for the loss of Coutinho and Can and our attack which is one of the better ones in the prem performs the same as last season. It’s probably not enough to close a 25 point gap but let’s see how we can do as 2nd or 3rd and a domestic cup would represent progress for us’. These are both completely reasonable things that no one could deny.

Instead we have to/ had to put up with on a daily basis: ‘we conquered all of Europe’ ‘we are going to blow away Madrid, they won’t be able to live with our style of football’ ‘we have the best front three in the world’ ‘Salah is currently better than Messi’ (a new low even for them) ‘Van Dijk is the new Alan Hansen’ ‘Keita will dominate the premier league’ ‘it’s a two horse race for the title and we have a better defence keeper and attack’ ‘we can win the quadruple’ (from one of their own players!!). It’s this senseless delusion pedalled as fact by their propaganda machine that ultimately leads to them being in tears every season but is mightily annoying for everyone else to endure in the meantime. I’m sure when they beat the worst side in the prem at home at the weekend that the treble will be back on and Salah is once again better than Messi.
 

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