Everton Transfer Thread - Summer 2020

[brettangellnightporter]

This is a good summary. His articles and podcasts I think are very interesting and informative and he presents his position very well. When he was on here he was very pro Moshiri and supportive of him,so it does make me laugh when I see people on social media saying he's always negative, that was never my impression of him on here. He's changed his view, and that he held a different view initially I think gives it validity.

He's had a successful business career and I think he wants to see Everton learn the lessons from what a conventional successful business would do. I agree with much of that (I've said a few times I'd make aserious offer to Leahy/Gilvary and potentially even a David Dein figure as well). However it is not always as simple as that. Football is if nothing else quite a hard industry to measure good governance. As a game it is very dependent on luck (as it is low scoring) and single bad mistakes or poor decisions can make an enormous difference. I mean we were poor last season, but you consider Ali at Goodison, DCL's winning goal, Brighton away and they are 3 enormous and obvious mistakes which would have seen us finish on 56 points in 8th.

I don't want to dwell on it, but the point is very few other industries work in that way. That all plans you do all week are essentially reduced to a 90 minute performance, and a 90 minute performance where there is such variance. It could also be, people within an organisation can do good work, and it takes a long time for this to really be noticed. So it's hard.

Most of what he says is fine, but there is an acknowledgement that a lot of the isuses go away if there is a big cash injection. This will often be said as well, something like "unless the major shareholder puts more money in, we will have to do x,y or z" and I always think well given past behaviour, surley the shareholder will just put more money in? Surely a major sponsor will just sponsor some more aspects of the club?

What I'd also note, and we all do this, is we see the world through our own axis. And it's not that someone's axis is wrong, but it's more that there are other interpretations. I have a bias that I want to see us operate how a German/Dutch club would, and put heavy investment into younger players/the academy. Thats my bias playing out, but it may not be the clubs bias. You have to try and see, Moshiri may not want the club to operate in that way.

I'vetried to stop arguing, but I've seen lads on there, who essentially will not countenence us signing anyone over 24/5 as all other signings are bad signings. Often this is without even knowing the deal. Coutinho, James etc are all just bad signings. Surely you have to see the context of the deal before you make that judgement? It's fine to say the priority needs to be x but also to be flexible enough to acknowledge that if y comes along and fits it's ok to pursue it.

I saw Billy Beane interviewed recently and he made a very good point, that moneyball is not really about signing cheap young players as people seem to think it is. It is about finding value. Now one way of finding value in football was doing the above, but it's not the only way. It's a market, marketsare fluid, if lots of people do 1 thing, the likelihood is value exists in other areas. Being able to move away from the crowd, avoid herd mentality and find new solutions is also important. In fairness to Liverpool, this is what they do most impressively for me. When you see them linked with a player, its normally left field. You can kind of see they are not just following the trend. Once a player becomes to a level of well known, they move on, which to me seems sensible. Its not just about sauing an asset is a good or bad buy, but understanding it is a good buy, in this climate, at this price point. Once those circumstances change, value is probably a bit lost.

Re: Liverpool, Allison and vvd and Keita and mane were pretty well known

 

[brieverton]

The reality is, nobody really knows what we will or won't spend, but as you say we can make educated guesses. Logically and convetionally if you looked at Everton as a business it would have no money to spent. You'd go in and recommend they start selling.

However if you subscribe to the view that we have an owner who is happy to put lots of money in or that Usmanov is unformally involved then you can take the opposite position that money will be made available. It would be an odd time to turn the tap off.

There have been revisions to FFP, I believe preliminary revisions. The recession is deepening and worsening, HSBC warned of a 96% drop in profits and a recovery taking until late in 2021. The government pulling spectators again has probably moved spectators returning to stadia by about 2 months, and the longer it goes on for the longer that will be. The FFP revisions by UEFA essentially work to the premise 2021 goes back to normal and therefore the bad year of 2020 can be diluted from the top teams. I just don't think thats going to be the material reality at at all. Barcelona are forecasting tehir turnover to be 30% of what it was the previous year. In this country we have te TV deal, which offers some protection (it will go down but not to 30% of the level it was) which disproportionately helps the smaller teams. I've seen nothing to suggest all revenues outside of this will not be hit by at least 50%+ though (commercial deals, merch spending, boxes etc).

This will put pressure on for further revisions of FFP and maybe even have it done away with.

We do need a plan though. That has been clear throughout this period. Spending money wrecklessly doesnt work. I think Brands has put in the beginnings of a plan, but it's an important summer for him. We are starting to make spaces for academy players which is good.

I would say, this window will see a lot of teams going very late in terms of deals. We will be one. I have little doubt. That is the "creative" part of what you are saying. Loan deals, ezchanges, longer term loan deals (2 years) free transfers etc will all come into play. If I were judging the market I would say early on clubs are desperate to try and hold the "business as usual line". Markets tend to like that stability, and football would not do well to collapsing prices. There are too many hanger ons in the process who lose out (advisors, agents, PR managers etc). They are having a go, but the longer it drifts without deals beijng done the sharper the fall at the backe end. Lots of sides are going to need money. No fans coming back, reduced merchandising etc and a need for money will be paramount.

We've done this under Brands before as well. It worked well season 1 and badly season 2. So lets see.

I wouldn't be unduly concerned that there won't be plenty of activity, although I'd prefer it sooner rather than later and not the majority of deals on deadline day or the days preceeding.

There is plenty of scope for Ancelotti and Brands to work within for us to at least begin to do what we need to do.

If you look at it as a four or six window strategy, then a sustained and significant improvement becomes more realistic.

With FFP uncertainty, there may be scope for an increased capital injection from Moshiri, but I honestly think, and actually hope, that there is finally a determination at the club to get value for money from now on.

I think the same would apply if Usmanov was looking at providing any further "sponsorship" money by creative means.

The bottom line at Everton for several seasons running now is a lot of expediture and effort for not just no return, but a negative return.

We can't keep living in that world. Ultimately I think that may lead to further personnel upheaval unless Brands, and by extension DBB as CEO, finally begin to demonstrate that they are capable of running the club on a sound footing.

 

[Sweverton]

It worked terribly to be honest, but that was because we bought awfully. Why is it, most German teams (or in truth European teams) regularly sell big players but stay stable or get better?

We need to sell at the right moments. At this stage we've just finished 12th, I can't see much sense in saying (in the coming market to) any of our players are worth more than £80m.

We haven't really managed to reinvest, succesfully, a player sale in the squad since rooney

 

[davids]

Yeh like 2-3 years ago.

In the 2018 thread and not in very glowing terms.

 

[H.H.]

So I mean to summarise;
A continuartion of the previous transfer policy (creative loans, smarter signings, not necessarily big money)
No imperative for manjor sales.

Is there any concern at the lack of revenue being brought in from the stadium?

Of course, like at any club, losing millions through no paying fans is a problem (hence the BoE loan) but if fans start coming back early next year, then what with our quite big sponsorships deals etc, it should be a problem we can ride out and hopefully the stadium can again start paying for itself (and then also have all the extra events.)

It was probably though, one of the worst times in sports history to be opening and paying for a big new expensive stadium and because of major job losses and a economic downturn like no other, the big question really is,
"Is there a need for big capacity new stadiums?"

 

[Neiler]

His book price last year was 27m that's what we paid for him. The deal was 27m rising to 34m with add-ons.

The figures are often subjective, so The Esk has amortised the full value of the deal with add ons and coming up with a book price of 27 mill+, which i can understand, i also see what you guys are saying and coming up with 21 mill, im not sure is there a rule that the full potential of the value of a deal has to be on the books or are you guys right and its 21 mill? essentially Paul and you guys are accounting this differently, im not sure what is the right way myself, though i suspect its a liability and needs to be accoutered for, maybe one of the accountants on here know?

 

[catcherintherye]

I wouldn't be unduly concerned that there won't be plenty of activity, although I'd prefer it sooner rather than later and not the majority of deals on deadline day or the days preceeding.

There is plenty of scope for Ancelotti and Brands to work within for us to at least begin to do what we need to do.

If you look at it as a four or six window strategy, then a sustained and significant improvement becomes more realistic.

With FFP uncertainty, there may be scope for an increased capital injection from Moshiri, but I honestly think, and actually hope, that there is finally a determination at the club to get value for money from now on.

I think the same would apply if Usmanov was looking at providing any further "sponsorship" money by creative means.

The bottom line at Everton for several seasons running now is a lot of expediture and effort for not just no return, but a negative return.

We can't keep living in that world. Ultimately I think that may lead to further personnel upheaval unless Brands, and by extension DBB as CEO, finally begin to demonstrate that they are capable of running the club on a sound footing.

It does take time. I think in the two years he's been here things have improved under Brands, but we had a first team coach who was very poor at managing games which did us in. Across the season under Carlo we probably get to 60 points under him (or post Silva). There will still be ups and downs but some improvement has been there.

We have to ultimately just give Ancelotti and probably Brands time. There's a new guy in the academy from Derby (which I'd say is a very smart move). But it wont be 1 window as you say. In 2015, Liverpool ended with 62 points, being 5-0 at half time to Stoke and a bit of a shambles. Within 4 years they'd added 50% to their points total to eventually go on to win the league. A similar return for us, gets us to 76 points, andin this season 3rd place. Thats the realistic ceiling, if we do things really well I think we can get to if we are patient. Liverpool did it in part by having an established DOF, a top manager and giving them time.

As for this summer, it may go to the wire. We would all rather it didn't, but it may have to. Players will start to become available into September and we could get some appeaing deals.

 

[Stuartisitc1878]

Re: Liverpool, Allison and vvd and Keita and mane were pretty well known

it's not like Salah was a hidden gem either. That lot had tried to sign him before losing out to Chelsea.

 

[catcherintherye]

We haven't really managed to reinvest, succesfully, a player sale in the squad since rooney

I'm not sure about that mate. After Fellaini we bought Lukaku, Barry McCarthy. Rodwell saw us sign Naismith, MIrallas and Oviedo. Lescott we got Heitinga and Distin. We used to be pretty good at it.

 

[catcherintherye]

Re: Liverpool, Allison and vvd and Keita and mane were pretty well known

Yes, they represented a break with what they did prevously and probably need to be considered seperately (and Keita has been woeful for the price they paid). However the wider point still stands I'd say.

 

[Sweverton]

I'm not sure about that mate. After Fellaini we bought Lukaku, Barry McCarthy. Rodwell saw us sign Naismith, MIrallas and Oviedo. Lescott we got Heitinga and Distin. We used to be pretty good at it.

You're right in terms of stability, i'd argue that this was the reinvestment that changed our premier league fortunes. Or maybe i'm just bitter

 

[jonnyboy316]

Deeney been linked yet?

 

[msb]

Can’t be taking your two most influential Players out your team.

Did it with Barkley and Lukaku that went well didn’t it?

We get Europe we can probably afford to sell one.

Barkers a top player, you must be having a laugh. if you think Richarlison goes missing occasionally, Barkers only turned up occasionally. I would not cash in on Digne/Richarlison either, as you can never be sure what the replacements will do - I just don't see how anyone can class Barkley as anything other than average.

Like it or not, this will be evolution. We wasted a lot of money and so now we have to live with that waste and its impact on our financial position. .

 

[TheSecondComing]

Barkers a top player, you must be having a laugh. if you think Richarlison goes missing occasionally, Barkers only turned up occasionally. I would not cash in on Digne/Richarlison either, as you can never be sure what the replacements will do - I just don't see how anyone can class Barkley as anything other than average.

Like it or not, this will be evolution. We wasted a lot of money and so now we have to live with that waste and its impact on our financial position. .

We should do what Burnley did about 10 years ago and hire an accountant as manager.

Makes for more fun imo.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

Its not about what Moshiri has or does the simple fact is we are penned in by FFP it has not been cancelled it has simply moved a year, if we spend big this summer then it is a fire sale next year, so I think we will sell someone this year, I thought it would be Pickford but his post lockdown form put pay to that, so I expect it will probably be Digne, but the netspend will not be massive it simply can't be as the Esk says, whether you like him or not there is merit in what he says

That’s knackers though. To suggest the actions of the owners can have no impact is absolute jarg. Ask him where he’s apportioned the £30m USM stadium rights deal fee btw.

Oh and your net transfer figure was £10m out.

You’re welcome