Match Thread Everton v Leeds United - Preview, Match Report and MotM Poll

[MikeH72]

It's Everton though so nothing surprises me, we clung to a win against a terrible Fulham so I'm not getting my hopes up. If this Leeds fan is indicative of their fanbase though then I'll take great delight in watching their season fall to pieces.

He is, make no mistake about that.

 

[Bungle]

He is, make no mistake about that.

The fact their main chant has to be kept to one syllable probably tells us all we need to know about these neanderthals.

 

[MikeH72]

The fact their main chant has to be kept to one syllable probably tells us all we need to know about these neanderthals.

I was initially happy to have them back up because I wanted another fixture with a bit of needle in it after years of sleepy Bournemouth and Norwich, but I knew if they stuck around that I’d get sick of them at some point. That’s happening already.

 

[mezzrow]

"derrrty Leeeeds..."

Learned that one here. Worked with a Leeds diehard, and I'd just slip that out as I walked by his area. Thank you, GOT.

"Can't wait until your boys are back in the prem," I would lie.

Come on, Everton - time to humiliate somebody. Enough of this regression to the mean business. Crush these.

 

[BlueToff]

I'd go back and watch the Palace game mate. Two deflections and a worldie freekick for them, VAR wrongly ruling out a goal for us. They went in 3-1 up at HT having created 0.32xG. They took their chances and put away some very low-probability opportunities. They did not 'smash' us.

We've out-possessed every team we've played this year, including Liverpool and City. The teams we've done worst against are those that have parked 11 behind the ball to defend for 90 minutes and play for the counter. Only Liverpool have beaten us in a game going toe-to-toe with us. If you're gonna do the former then I'm worried, if the latter than I'm pretty confident we can get something. Especially as our 'terriible defence' has only conceded 2 goals more than yours.

Not disagreeing with your general point, but VAR didn't wrongly disallow it. The rules are crap, but those are the rules. I fully agree that it's a mental, crap rule, but it is what it is. Same with the derby goal and I'm sure we'll have one or two ruled out for it this season as well.

Everton fans being bullish about this game is a bit daft. Leeds have attributes that can definitely expose our weaknesses, though I would say that the other way round too.

My main worry defensively is our lack of pace if Keane and Mina both play. Bamford isn't the quickest but plays on the shoulder and Raphinia/Costa/Harrison are all rapid. It's a bit scary.

But, in Richarlison, James and Calvert-Lewin, we definitely have the players to get at you.

Think it'll be a mad game tbh

 

[BlueToff]

I was initially happy to have them back up because I wanted another fixture with a bit of needle in it after years of sleepy Bournemouth and Norwich, but I knew if they stuck around that I’d get sick of them at some point. That’s happening already.

Mate, I've grown up in Yorkshire - when I first got into footy had to deal with Leeds thinking they were the dogs.

My mates crying when they went down is still ingrained as a very happy memory for me, aged 9.

 

[MikeH72]

Mate, I've grown up in Yorkshire - when I first got into footy had to deal with Leeds thinking they were the dogs.

My mates crying when they went down is still ingrained as a very happy memory for me, aged 9.

I would like a repeat of this for the new generation please.

 

[Gilbert..]

Can see both teams weakness being exploited.
4-3.

 

[bcblue1878]

Dude, Everton wont get relegated, this season or next season or the season after, are you smoking something or what team do you even support? The bookies have Everton for ridiculous odds for relegation, like they always do and the bookies are almost always right...right? - in fact Everton are favourites for the top 6 by many

Some 'fans' here do seem to have blinkers on - voting for Mina and others in match day squads etc. My thoughts are Everton are not far from a top 6 spot however they need additional reinforcements as they have far too much dead wood - of which I have mentioned about 1000 times by now. I think we have 5 maybe 6 players a top 6 side would play - if we add to that then top 6 and beyond is very doable

The only way they will get relegated is if they play Mina and his kids and family in the team and Mina's gran in goal and Da as gaffer

Think you may be getting a bit confused as to who supports who here, or may be not read his post correctly?

 

[LeedsW5]

I mean what even is this? What a monumental bore, I suspect if you've managed to attract a woman at any point in your life it's probably ended with you watching her get ploughed by another fella whilst you knock one out to her ball retention stats.

It's a fairly well-used statistical model based on aggregating the quality of chances a team generates / concedes and their probability of scoring from each of them. So to give an example, Ebere Eze banging a fk in off the bar from 30 yards looks great, but 9 times out of 10 it'll miss. A gameplan built around doing that every game would not generate many points. Similarly, expecting your keeper to have a worldie every game isn't a sustainable plan for a season.

Looking at the current stats, some things jump out:

Liverpool are conceding more and scoring fewer than they should - if this reverts to the mean (as expected) they'll win the league. Spurs are over-performing on both metrics atm, which isn't sustainable if there isn't an underlying reason for it.

You guys have scored ~4 more goals than you should from the chances you've had, but also conceded ~2 more from the chances given away. So you're in round about the right place.

Palace are over-scoring and under-conceding, suggesting they'll drop down the table as the season goes on. Both Fulham and Burnley are under-scoring and over-conceding - meaning they're far from relegation certs given their performances.

West Brom however are exactly where their xG says they should be - 6 scored, 18 conceded. Meaning that's a good bet they'll stay there.

It's an interesting model to analyse how teams are actually performing not just see their scores. All available on InfoGol.

 

[UptheTofees]

@carlos21

COME ON EVERTON

@Death

COME ON EVERTON

 

[ToffeeTim]

It's a fairly well-used statistical model based on aggregating the quality of chances a team generates / concedes and their probability of scoring from each of them. So to give an example, Ebere Eze banging a fk in off the bar from 30 yards looks great, but 9 times out of 10 it'll miss. A gameplan built around doing that every game would not generate many points. Similarly, expecting your keeper to have a worldie every game isn't a sustainable plan for a season.

Looking at the current stats, some things jump out:

Liverpool are conceding more and scoring fewer than they should - if this reverts to the mean (as expected) they'll win the league. Spurs are over-performing on both metrics atm, which isn't sustainable if there isn't an underlying reason for it.

You guys have scored ~4 more goals than you should from the chances you've had, but also conceded ~2 more from the chances given away. So you're in round about the right place.

Palace are over-scoring and under-conceding, suggesting they'll drop down the table as the season goes on. Both Fulham and Burnley are under-scoring and over-conceding - meaning they're far from relegation certs given their performances.

West Brom however are exactly where their xG says they should be - 6 scored, 18 conceded. Meaning that's a good bet they'll stay there.

It's an interesting model to analyse how teams are actually performing not just see their scores. All available on InfoGol.

Surely a team under-performing their XG is a sign they are not clinical and struggling to score. Finishing is a key part of top flight football and if a team are poor in both boxes, then they will struggle. I'm not sure Fulham and Burnley under-scoring is a sign things are about to turn round for them. It's just telling us what we already probably knew, they lack quality in front of goal.

I've never been a huge fan of XG for various reasons. It can be interesting, but like all stats, the interpretation is as important as the actual stat.

I don't necessarily agree this game will be quite as open as people seem to think. I think it could be pretty close and can see us nicking it 2-1.

 

[Bungle]

It's a fairly well-used statistical model based on aggregating the quality of chances a team generates / concedes and their probability of scoring from each of them. So to give an example, Ebere Eze banging a fk in off the bar from 30 yards looks great, but 9 times out of 10 it'll miss. A gameplan built around doing that every game would not generate many points. Similarly, expecting your keeper to have a worldie every game isn't a sustainable plan for a season.

Looking at the current stats, some things jump out:

Liverpool are conceding more and scoring fewer than they should - if this reverts to the mean (as expected) they'll win the league. Spurs are over-performing on both metrics atm, which isn't sustainable if there isn't an underlying reason for it.

You guys have scored ~4 more goals than you should from the chances you've had, but also conceded ~2 more from the chances given away. So you're in round about the right place.

Palace are over-scoring and under-conceding, suggesting they'll drop down the table as the season goes on. Both Fulham and Burnley are under-scoring and over-conceding - meaning they're far from relegation certs given their performances.

West Brom however are exactly where their xG says they should be - 6 scored, 18 conceded. Meaning that's a good bet they'll stay there.

It's an interesting model to analyse how teams are actually performing not just see their scores. All available on InfoGol.

Boring [Poor language removed].

Found your mobile number on the Brentford forum you post on so might sign you up for some questionable websites if you carry on.

 

[MikeH72]

It's a fairly well-used statistical model based on aggregating the quality of chances a team generates / concedes and their probability of scoring from each of them. So to give an example, Ebere Eze banging a fk in off the bar from 30 yards looks great, but 9 times out of 10 it'll miss. A gameplan built around doing that every game would not generate many points. Similarly, expecting your keeper to have a worldie every game isn't a sustainable plan for a season.

Looking at the current stats, some things jump out:

Liverpool are conceding more and scoring fewer than they should - if this reverts to the mean (as expected) they'll win the league. Spurs are over-performing on both metrics atm, which isn't sustainable if there isn't an underlying reason for it.

You guys have scored ~4 more goals than you should from the chances you've had, but also conceded ~2 more from the chances given away. So you're in round about the right place.

Palace are over-scoring and under-conceding, suggesting they'll drop down the table as the season goes on. Both Fulham and Burnley are under-scoring and over-conceding - meaning they're far from relegation certs given their performances.

West Brom however are exactly where their xG says they should be - 6 scored, 18 conceded. Meaning that's a good bet they'll stay there.

It's an interesting model to analyse how teams are actually performing not just see their scores. All available on InfoGol.

The key point you are missing here is that all of that is absolutely pointless nonsense, and also you are a boring head patting bozo.

 

[Blue toffee]

Think you may be getting a bit confused as to who supports who here, or may be not read his post correctly?

That’s what I thought. We are a bit rubbish, but not that rubbish.lol