Expected Goals and what it means for us

[johnjoeefc]

I just wanted to create this thread and give some reasons for why I am extremely concerned, despite the win on Thursday.

Under Lampard, generally we are playing terribly and have been playing poorly in every league game apart from home against Leeds.

I want to just concentrate on league matches as the Cup isn't really relevant to our current league situation and matches in the cup can concern clubs with rotated and weakened teams.

(Expected Goals is a stat based on the quality of chances created in the game and an average percent of how likely them chances would be to becoming goals. Eg if you have 2.00 expected Goals then your team on average should have scored 2 goals based on the quality of chances they created in the match.)

Expected Goals

Newcastle 2.48 v 0.77 Everton
Everton 2.72 v 0.38 Leeds
Southampton 2.51 v 0.35 Everton
Everton 0.52 v 1.94 Man City
Spurs 2.60 v 0.28 Everton
Everton 0.42 v 1.00 Wolves
Everton 0.65 v 1.31 Newcastle

This really makes for worrying reading. I keep hearing how it would be even worse under Benitez but I totally reject that idea. Benitez had an expected goals average nearly double of that than Lampard. I'm not saying we should have kept Benitez as it appeared untenable.

What I'm saying is that this team is better than the performances we are seeing currently and Lampard has managed to bring us down to a worse level of performance than Benitez with better players at his disposal.

We were extremely fortunate to come away from the game against Newcastle with all 3 points. However good fortune is temporary and it will run out if we continue to play how we are. If we continue to be outperformed then the Wolves result is far more likely to happen more often than the Newcastle one and it will send us down. Particularly away from home, if your overwhelmed by the opposition as much as we consistently are then Burnley and Watford should beat us in all probability.

In fact both Burnley and Watford have been outperforming us on expected Goals since Lampard joined us. Unless if something changes drastically in this respect then we are deep in trouble. You can say let's be positive we just had a big win and things should improve. But that did not happen against Southampton after the 3 nil Leeds win. In fact a performance with just 0.35 expected goals is what we managed.

Something is fundamentally wrong with how Lampard is setting us up. If he doesn't manage to fix this then probability would suggest we are going down.

 

[LABlue2]

Probably a fair assessment unfortunately, despite the feel good factor of last night. Hopefully we can ride our luck for the rest of the season as we only need a few more wins.

 

[hallamblue]

He needs to settle on a formation, preferably 4-3-3. Once the players know how we'll be playing, hopefully it will stabilise and we'll create more chances. I think he'd like to play 4-3-3 with Allan, Van de Beek and Doucoure in the middle but they're rarely all available!

 

[coollino]

Literally no football team has ever won a football match 2.53 - 0.73628

 

[PhilM]

Literally no football team has ever won a football match 2.53 - 0.73628

Everton 0.65 v 1.31 Newcastle - that ended 1-0 to us.
Everton 2.72 v 0.38 Leeds - that ended 3-0 to us.

I get the point: we've not made enough chances and it's a fair assessment. However, in reality it doesn't always work like that and, importantly, it's retrospective.

With improved confidence, players returning (see DCL) and more training, you'd hope if not expect to see an improvement. Looking to the past alone is naive.

 

[ForeverBlue92]

He needs to settle on a formation, preferably 4-3-3. Once the players know how we'll be playing, hopefully it will stabilise and we'll create more chances. I think he'd like to play 4-3-3 with Allan, Van de Beek and Doucoure in the middle but they're rarely all available!

Doesn't help we always have 2-3 CM's out.

Why in the summer whatever happens we need to see Delph & Gbamin gone at the minimum and bring in 2x CMs who are fit/available most weeks (despite being limited I think Davies has been missed in this regard as he's normally reliable in terms of availability).

I think for Lampard he needs to pick a side and stick with it now even if it means playing someone out of position or a youngster (particularly at GP with the crowd behind them).

4411 is the best formation at present imo

Pickford

Coleman Keane Branthwaite Godfrey

Richarlison Doucoure Allan Gray
VDB
DCL

would like to see something like that long term - think VDB has the quality to play in that position he also had goals to his game at Ajax.

 

[dublinbluenose]

There is more than one model used in calculation so it'll depend on which one you use. I dont think it really tells a great deal but its certainly useful from a sports science/analytics of individual clubs. Outside of that its just another market for spread betting.

 

[Ring master]

Despite me looking at stats and co, this expected goal/XG stuff is one thing i dont get my head around as just dont get it we were not great overall v The Toon but got the win just, its not like we were making chance after chance either

 

[kev]

Stats schmats!

 

[blue to the bone]

I just wanted to create this thread and give some reasons for why I am extremely concerned, despite the win on Thursday.

Under Lampard, generally we are playing terribly and have been playing poorly in every league game apart from home against Leeds.

I want to just concentrate on league matches as the Cup isn't really relevant to our current league situation and matches in the cup can concern clubs with rotated and weakened teams.

(Expected Goals is a stat based on the quality of chances created in the game and an average percent of how likely them chances would be to becoming goals. Eg if you have 2.00 expected Goals then your team on average should have scored 2 goals based on the quality of chances they created in the match.)

Expected Goals

Newcastle 2.48 v 0.77 Everton
Everton 2.72 v 0.38 Leeds
Southampton 2.51 v 0.35 Everton
Everton 0.52 v 1.94 Man City
Spurs 2.60 v 0.28 Everton
Everton 0.42 v 1.00 Wolves
Everton 0.65 v 1.31 Newcastle

This really makes for worrying reading. I keep hearing how it would be even worse under Benitez but I totally reject that idea. Benitez had an expected goals average nearly double of that than Lampard. I'm not saying we should have kept Benitez as it appeared untenable.

What I'm saying is that this team is better than the performances we are seeing currently and Lampard has managed to bring us down to a worse level of performance than Benitez with better players at his disposal.

We were extremely fortunate to come away from the game against Newcastle with all 3 points. However good fortune is temporary and it will run out if we continue to play how we are. If we continue to be outperformed then the Wolves result is far more likely to happen more often than the Newcastle one and it will send us down. Particularly away from home, if your overwhelmed by the opposition as much as we consistently are then Burnley and Watford should beat us in all probability.

In fact both Burnley and Watford have been outperforming us on expected Goals since Lampard joined us. Unless if something changes drastically in this respect then we are deep in trouble. You can say let's be positive we just had a big win and things should improve. But that did not happen against Southampton after the 3 nil Leeds win. In fact a performance with just 0.35 expected goals is what we managed.

Something is fundamentally wrong with how Lampard is setting us up. If he doesn't manage to fix this then probability would suggest we are going down.

Do you still want us to get big sam in mate?

 

[Yarrgh]

Actual goals for and against is the statistic you should look at. Or points obtained in the table- in the league nothing else matters.

 

[johnjoeefc]

Actual goals for and against is the statistic you should look at. Or points obtained in the table- in the league nothing else matters.

These stats are relevant to the stats you talk about. The expected goals for and against over a season on average end up very close to the actual goals.

We very much deserved to lose to Wolves and could have played another 120 minutes more in that that game without scoring based on the xg. Againt Newcastle we also had half of their xg.

The reason it's a worry is that apart from home to Brentford at the end of the season... the last 2 games we just played are as easy as they will get. If we continue playing as we are we are going to go down in all probability unless if Lampard totally finds an alternative way of us playing as his approach is not working.

 

[Street end man]

Interesting read but the bottom line is this team have proved they can play. They made City look second best for a large portion of the 90 minutes.

The reasons why they can't do this more often is the conundrum.