Are you able to explain how you worked out a £40m loss? Not disagreeing with you, but I would love to see your reasoning.
Whilst not a fan of net spend, when looking at cash flows in and out of a business it’s obviously useful. In season 2017/18 we committed to transfers in valuing £182 million, selling £113 million, creating a transfer deficit of £69 million.
This summer window of to 2018, we committed to £82.7 million of transfer payments receiving £21.4 million, an additional transfer deficit of £61.3 million.
The final element of calculating how much cash we have used comes from looking at the Profit & Loss accounts and looking at the operating performance of the club. From that we can get an idea of whether the business is generating cash or spending it.
The bad news is that we are currently spending well in excess of what we are earning. If you recall at the beginning of the summer transfer window there was much talk about having to reduce the squad size and reduce the wage bill. Whilst we’ve reduced numbers, the most recent activity will have increased the wage bill for 18/19. That may change with further outgoings in the remaining weeks of this month. Also turnover falls in 18/19 due to the absence of European football.
Income and expenditure is summerised (based on accounts data) and 2018/19 (projected).
Profit & Loss 31-May-16
Total income 121,541
Wages 83,985
Other operating expense30,428,
EBITDA 7,128
Profit & Loss 31-May-17
Total income 171,100
Wages 104,655
Other operating expense 39,184
EBITDA 27,261
Profit & Loss31-May-18*
Total income 186,500
Wages 139,500
Other operating expense 61,1100
EBITDA -13,100
Profit & Loss 31-May-19*
Total income 171,000
Wages 145,000
Other operating expense 60,000
EBITDA – 34,000
The above calculation shows whether the business is generating cash or spending more it generates. From the above you can see that the club was profitable in season 16/17, but in negative for 17/18 and projections for 18/19 we spend more than we generate.
Just a note, some of the other operating costs are costs associated with the new stadium which will be capitalised once planning permission is granted allowing future adjustments, however in cash terms, this is money being spent now.
So how much cash do we have or not have?
As of 31st May 2017 we had £9.6 million in cash. We also know from the accounts that between the beginning of the financial year and the publication of the accounts in December 2017 Moshiri contributed an additional £45 million. We have also received the advance of £37.5 million from Santander (which drops into the 2018/19 financial year).
If we assume transfer payments in and out are paid and received over three years, we can estimate that by taking into account the previous three years transfer activities, we would have made net payments of £31 million in 17/18, and will make net payments of £63 million in 18/19 (current financial year) based on the above assumption.
The contribution from the business to cash flow (operating profit/(loss)) the accpunts are in negative for 17/18 and 18/19 as above, to the tune of -£13.1 million and -£34 million respectively, i give a max of £40 million so in between £34 -£40 in range given these are estimates.