Maths + Sorcery = 12% CL 51% EL

[tasslehoff]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Everton.html

We win our last 3 games we have a 12% chance of CL.

I have no idea how this works but the numbers look kind of.. well thought through.

Anyone who 'gets' it feel free to explain.

 

[Allezfan]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Everton.html

We win our last 3 games we have a 12% chance of CL.

I have no idea how this works but the numbers look kind of.. well thought through.

Anyone who 'gets' it feel free to explain.

According to that three wins and we're 51% likely to finish 5th.

it's on!

 

[Deloodid]

If we get beat by Liverpool its 7th, if we draw its 6th,

 

[McBain]

I vote Sorcery.

Maths Sux

 

[steken1]

I like them odds. I also like Kerry Katona. Make of that what you will!

 

[ArtetaMagic]

I like them odds. I also like Kerry Katona. Make of that what you will!

You have a 97% chance of success with Kerry Katona

 

[steken1]

You have a 97% chance of success with Kerry Katona

I think you've underestimated her.

 

[DanEFC92]

 

[steken1]

But what if you wanna take the price?

 

[pfim]

It's just a Monte Carlo simulation. A program will run thousands of iterations of the possible outcomes and from them you come up with probabilities.

 

[steken1]

It's just a Monte Carlo simulation. A program will run thousands of iterations of the possible outcomes and from them you come up with probabilities.

Was just typing that myself, honest!

 

[Allezfan]

It's just a Monte Carlo simulation. A program will run thousands of iterations of the possible outcomes and from them you come up with probabilities.

The problem with that surely is that football isn't a game of chance. If Bayern Munich played Rotherham they wouldn't have a 33% chance of winning.

 

[pfim]

The problem with that surely is that football isn't a game of chance. If Bayern Munich played Rotherham they wouldn't have a 33% chance of winning.

The probabilities will depend on the inputs. If there is a standard Win/Loss/Draw formula, then yes, you'll get unrealistic output like this. If the inputs are based on a club's recent results, home/away splits etc then you'll get a fairly representational output. I'm sure the standard deviation will be fairly high, especially with clubs below ManU and ManCity, and above the two relegated clubs.

 

[zirc]

What are the chances we win our remaining three games though. I'd say 12% is optimistic.

 

[Deloodid]

id say 3% its gonna be hard enuff getting 1 win away nevermind 2