John from Bootle
Player Valuation: £8m
Andy,
I'm not an expert, but have some experience in Transport Design projects and I am only commenting in broadbrush terms.
I spent a few yrs as a design engineer with Balfour Beatty Rail projects, working on various tram projects including the Merseytram proposals, Nottingham Express Tram, Manchester Metrolink extension and Sheffield Supertram mods and one overseas. This was mostly in a Mechanical/structural and system design capacity, but I was also involved in dynamic modelling for both the Nottingham and the aborted Merseytram systems, working with local transport planning and modelling.
In a non-professional capacity, I was also involved in looking at the transport plan for Destination Kirkby (throughout its multiple revisions), the potential for the Loop and I commissioned an outline transport plan for the Central Docks area, while working with the KEIOC campaign.
Yes, I read the transport plan when it was first published (I haven't read any revisions, if there have been any). I have also read similar plans for a few stadium projects, including most recently, the stadium expansion projects for the likes of our neighbours, Spurs, City and Man Utd etc.
By vague, I mean that the detail and modelling outcomes are pretty much headline only and not that clear, nor including much real data (that may well be in supporting docs that I haven't read). As I said, ultimately there is no calculated dispersal time to give an overall indication of how well the stadium transport infrastructure is expected to work, or compares to what we have now (unless I've missed it). Outwardly, there is little more depth than the Destination Kirkby transport plan, which admittedly had less fan consultation. Knowsley and the club repeatedly claimed that there were no issues with their transport plan, with it only fully revealed at the public inquiry that modelling had failed to produce any viable scheme, despite multiple revisions.... to the extent that there were built-in clauses, whereby the operating capacity would've had to be reduced significantly, to produce the dispersal requirements of the site.
I'm not saying that's the case here, or anything remotely close, just that the clarity is not dissimilar, and that a local council desperate for a major catalyst development, can be less than strict when considering transport/logistics and fan's convenience. Hence the apparent dominance of Shank's Pony and walking speed prowess in some people's assessments here.
In back of fag packet maths terms: The club has stated that the site needs a 60:40 public to private transport ratio. That equates to approximately 31k+ using public transport to access BMD. Presumably, that means that after modelling, they've calculated that the surrounding infrastructure can only support a maximum additional 20k fans in cars (at average loading), to either avoid gridlock/or keep within local parking capacity, for any matchday arrival/departure window. Again, I haven't seen that modelling data, so I've no idea of any tolerances or the balance of that requirement between traffic movement/availability-of-road-space and parking, but for comparison, at some stadia in London, that ratio can be as high as 90%+ public transport. 29 shuttle buses doing 2 trips each equates to approx 4600 fans to Bootle and Town, if their turnaround times can be achieved. Why isn't there also short shuttle to the edge of town (say the King Edward Site) where say just 10 buses could possibly do 6 trips per hour if fully segregated, moving approx 4800 pph to town alone? It's not clear what segregation they'll have to help achieve those numbers, but just two trips per bus would seem to indicate a fairly long turnaround time for a 3 mile round-trip shuttle service. I think Merseyrail at Sandhills can provide approx 12 trains per hour in either direction. Of course, that capacity is shared with non-matchgoing passengers and the system doesn't cover most of the city, but that could equate to a match-going capacity of 3-6k in both directions. However, I think Merseyrail recently stated that the station itself can only process approx 4k passengers per hour, which was why the importance of the proposed Vauxhall Station was repeatedly mentioned during the planning process (and would've happened if the commonwealth games bid had been successful). A further say 20-30 buses per hr at Scotland/Stanley Rd at half loading, would equate to an additional 1000-1500 per hr (requiring a 1 mile walk).
So, available public transport capacity from within 1 mile walk of the site could be less than 10k per hr, with only a proportion of that being direct services to fan's home districts. Of course there's taxies available too, but again they're relatively inefficient and are additional strain on the limited available road space. At first pass, that appears a long way short of the required 31k. Yes, many very local residents (within say a 2 mile radius) could walk to and from the stadium, and many fans with no direct services to BMD can walk to and from town and all its major hubs, but there was little indication of the projected proportions using which routes and how they match the available service capacities etc. For instance, that same Merseyrail capacity is also available to matchgoers at Goodison, via usage of Kirkdale, Bankhall and Sandhills Stations (with 5 available platforms), yet only a relatively small proportion of that capacity is used on matchdays. Is this because the Northern Line only covers a small proportion of the total city catchment, or because buses and driving is easier or more convenient at GP? How will this pattern shift at BMD?
I'm not saying that the apparent capacity gap, or any of the transport issues are insurmountable. Just that the transport plan (that I read) doesn't appear to cover it fully.
Andy,
I'm not an expert, but have some experience in Transport Design projects and I am only commenting in broadbrush terms.
I spent a few yrs as a design engineer with Balfour Beatty Rail projects, working on various tram projects including the Merseytram proposals, Nottingham Express Tram, Manchester Metrolink extension and Sheffield Supertram mods and one overseas. This was mostly in a Mechanical/structural and system design capacity, but I was also involved in dynamic modelling for both the Nottingham and the aborted Merseytram systems, working with local transport planning and modelling.
In a non-professional capacity, I was also involved in looking at the transport plan for Destination Kirkby (throughout its multiple revisions), the potential for the Loop and I commissioned an outline transport plan for the Central Docks area, while working with the KEIOC campaign.
Yes, I read the transport plan when it was first published (I haven't read any revisions, if there have been any). I have also read similar plans for a few stadium projects, including most recently, the stadium expansion projects for the likes of our neighbours, Spurs, City and Man Utd etc.
By vague, I mean that the detail and modelling outcomes are pretty much headline only and not that clear, nor including much real data (that may well be in supporting docs that I haven't read). As I said, ultimately there is no calculated dispersal time to give an overall indication of how well the stadium transport infrastructure is expected to work, or compares to what we have now (unless I've missed it). Outwardly, there is little more depth than the Destination Kirkby transport plan, which admittedly had less fan consultation. Knowsley and the club repeatedly claimed that there were no issues with their transport plan, with it only fully revealed at the public inquiry that modelling had failed to produce any viable scheme, despite multiple revisions.... to the extent that there were built-in clauses, whereby the operating capacity would've had to be reduced significantly, to produce the dispersal requirements of the site.
I'm not saying that's the case here, or anything remotely close, just that the clarity is not dissimilar, and that a local council desperate for a major catalyst development, can be less than strict when considering transport/logistics and fan's convenience. Hence the apparent dominance of Shank's Pony and walking speed prowess in some people's assessments here.
In back of fag packet maths terms: The club has stated that the site needs a 60:40 public to private transport ratio. That equates to approximately 31k+ using public transport to access BMD. Presumably, that means that after modelling, they've calculated that the surrounding infrastructure can only support a maximum additional 20k fans in cars (at average loading), to either avoid gridlock/or keep within local parking capacity, for any matchday arrival/departure window. Again, I haven't seen that modelling data, so I've no idea of any tolerances or the balance of that requirement between traffic movement/availability-of-road-space and parking, but for comparison, at some stadia in London, that ratio can be as high as 90%+ public transport. 29 shuttle buses doing 2 trips each equates to approx 4600 fans to Bootle and Town, if their turnaround times can be achieved. Why isn't there also short shuttle to the edge of town (say the King Edward Site) where say just 10 buses could possibly do 6 trips per hour if fully segregated, moving approx 4800 pph to town alone? It's not clear what segregation they'll have to help achieve those numbers, but just two trips per bus would seem to indicate a fairly long turnaround time for a 3 mile round-trip shuttle service. I think Merseyrail at Sandhills can provide approx 12 trains per hour in either direction. Of course, that capacity is shared with non-matchgoing passengers and the system doesn't cover most of the city, but that could equate to a match-going capacity of 3-6k in both directions. However, I think Merseyrail recently stated that the station itself can only process approx 4k passengers per hour, which was why the importance of the proposed Vauxhall Station was repeatedly mentioned during the planning process (and would've happened if the commonwealth games bid had been successful). A further say 20-30 buses per hr at Scotland/Stanley Rd at half loading, would equate to an additional 1000-1500 per hr (requiring a 1 mile walk).
So, available public transport capacity from within 1 mile walk of the site could be less than 10k per hr, with only a proportion of that being direct services to fan's home districts. Of course there's taxies available too, but again they're relatively inefficient and are additional strain on the limited available road space. At first pass, that appears a long way short of the required 31k. Yes, many very local residents (within say a 2 mile radius) could walk to and from the stadium, and many fans with no direct services to BMD can walk to and from town and all its major hubs, but there was little indication of the projected proportions using which routes and how they match the available service capacities etc. For instance, that same Merseyrail capacity is also available to matchgoers at Goodison, via usage of Kirkdale, Bankhall and Sandhills Stations (with 5 available platforms), yet only a relatively small proportion of that capacity is used on matchdays. Is this because the Northern Line only covers a small proportion of the total city catchment, or because buses and driving is easier or more convenient at GP? How will this pattern shift at BMD?
I'm not saying that the apparent capacity gap, or any of the transport issues are insurmountable. Just that the transport plan (that I read) doesn't appear to cover it fully.
Quick question Tom, do you think some people in the East Stand will be at Sandhills after a game, before some in the West Stand have even left the plaza? The trains will be shifting passengers rapidly before a lot of fans even get there, more so now that the new 8 car carriages are being rolled out.
The new gaff is gonna have a different dynamic, and some fans might be looking at 10, 15, maybe more, minutes before they actually get out of the plaza I only say this, as it seems to be assumed that everybody will leave at exactly the same time, and that's not even including people who might choose to stay behind.
I'm also not sure on your assertion about the Northern Line not covering most of the city, technically, you are correct, but that's if you view the Northern Line as an isolated line that has no links to others. I think when you take into account that it directly links to the City Line(s) then I'd say more of the city has rail links than not.