davek
Player Valuation: £150m
It's a shame @The Esk doesn't post anymore.Worth a read from @The Esk
https://theesk.org/2017/01/28/evert...-of-costs-what-it-means-for-fans-and-funding/
I've had a bit of a ponder and a couple of spreadsheets since reading it, and would draw attention to the following mentioned therein:-
Esk mentions income of 42m based on a sell out - I make it 43m ex VAT and am similarly 1 mil in front with a 90% sales figure. If anyone is really that bored, pm me an email address and you can check out my figures and rationale.
Esk reckons that the repayments on a 225 mil loan at 5% over 20 years are 14.8 mil per year - I admit it, I used the loan amortisation spreadsheet from MS, but came up with 17.8mil per year. Try it.
Now what I don't get is that Esk's figures include the total income from hospitality et al, but in order for this to happen there are expenses incurred by bringing it back in-house, so when looking at affordability these expenses would have to be taken into account.
So, given the base figure used in the article of 18 mil, we're 25 mil a year better off on my calcs, but the 18 mil is the matchday receipts rather than bums on seats figure. This is got from GPSL accounts(16.9 mil) and then needs to be adjusted down for 4 Cup matches (say 1.6 mil) then up for Sodexo (God knows).
So despite the fact that Esk is normally more optimistic in his projections, I reckon that if you add back sat 1.25 mil for Sodexo (no basis other than 950k + bonus), then in terms of turnover will be comfortably 25 mil better.
Nearly there!!!
If the assumed cost for catering and staff for corporate/executive is approximately 40% of turnover, then the extra cost would be about 8 mil on 100% occupancy, so 17 mil better off in terms of cash.
So 17mil, add back 2.7 mil which was the old repayment to Pru gives 19.7 mil, take off 17.8 mil new mortgage payment leaves you 1.9m better off in tems of cash which would just about cover the tax liability on the extra profit.
What I'm basically saying is if my assumptions are correct, it is tight as to wether or not a 225 mil debt is sustainable without Europe and Cup runs with home draws!
I await being ignored and told to pipe down or being piped down by someone ITK.
An unnecessary loss to the forum.
