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Relegation

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We've given ourselves a chance with that Chelsea win, but there's still so much work to do.

You have to think that 4 points from our two upcoming away games, and then at least another 4 from the two home games after that would give us an unbelievable chance, putting us on 40 points. Ideally, we want to be mathematically safe, or as good as safe thanks to goal difference, before we play Arsenal on the final day.

If we do collect 8 points from our next four games, Leeds would have to get at least 4 points from their next three to be in with any shout on the final day as they'd have to finish ahead of us outright due to their inferior goal difference. That's an incredibly tall order for them but it would count for nothing if we don't take of our own business.

It's going to be incredibly nervy right until the end but we have got our hard fixtures out of the way now and are playing Leicester in ideal circumstances to pick up a point at the very least on the road.

i just pray these players give everything they've got for the club in these final fives games before they hopefully all collectively do one in the summer.
 

barneygumble said:
You just cannot set up hoping other teams falter, it’s a recipe for disaster.

You aim high, so that your high target can out soon the others even if they do well.

I keep seeing “Leeds won’t get 5 points”, but what if they do? Then the “decent” points we’d have taken at Leicester and Watford turn into disappointments.

Go for the jugular. 3 wins and a draw, 4 wins, 3 wins… any of them heap huge pressure on the others, especially Southampton, if they lose at the weekend.
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Well I assume the club will be hoping that they win all 5 games. I also assume that they originally hoped to win all 38 at the start of the season, but we live in the real world and so it's best to try and look at things realistically. The chances of us ending the season with 6 wins on the bounce seems more than a little fanciful, so people are looking at where we might pick up points and where other teams might drop them. Obviously it rarely works out exactly how you think, but what we talk about on here isn't going to affect the results regardless.
 
Steve EFC said:
If at the weekend we win against Leicester and Burnley or Leeds get a result and Southampton lose away at Brentford (I think all those things could easily happen) all of a sudden Southampton will start to get mentioned as part of this relegation scrap!
They’ve got 3 difficult games too…
Also if they do lose their remaining 3 games, us and Burnley would only need 40 points most likely as our GD by then would probably be better than theirs.

Edit. Obviously we just need to win as many games as possible and look after us as it’s in our hands. All being well we are safe going into arsenal game.
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It’s 100 percent down to the team to get as many points as possible. If we can win another couple on the bounce then I think we’ll be fine. But not sure that’s likely given our away form. I think 10 points would do it.
 
DanEFC92 said:
Not worth talking about the Chelsea thing. Like that's ever going to happen to one of the big sides.
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If it were the PL or FA making the call then of course it wouldn’t be allowed to happen. But it’s the government’s decision and, as things stand Chelsea’s license to trade expires at the end of the month.

The expectation is still very much that the club will have new owners by then but if RA goes back on his promises or shifts the goalposts the government have a difficult choice. Putting Chelsea effectively out of business isn’t something they want to do but giving into a sanctioned Putin crony’s demands or allowing a Russian asset to compete in the PL next season if there’s no sale at all aren’t palatable options for them either when they are claiming to be Ukraine’s biggest ally.

It’s all on RA really. If he loves the club as he claims, he does as he promises and walks away without personally receiving a penny. If he breaks that promise he could burn the club to the ground.
 

willo30 said:
The season would be finished so nothing would happen.

It would only mess with the points mid season.
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Nothing bad that happens to Chelsea is going to be bad for us.

If Chelsea can’t complete this season their results are expunged but a) the government license is designed to let them complete the season so that’s not a big worry and b) we’d lose 4 points but only the bottom two would be relegated. We’d still only have to keep ahead of Watford.

If, as is more likely, Chelsea complete the season but RA doesn’t allow the sale to go through and Chelsea are refused a license to keep going next season, the league rule is that the 18th team this year then stays up to take the league back to 20.
 
Tony’s Carp said:
Nothing bad that happens to Chelsea is going to be bad for us.

If Chelsea can’t complete this season their results are expunged but a) the government license is designed to let them complete the season so that’s not a big worry and b) we’d lose 4 points but only the bottom two would be relegated. We’d still only have to keep ahead of Watford.

If, as is more likely, Chelsea complete the season but RA doesn’t allow the sale to go through and Chelsea are refused a license to keep going next season, the league rule is that the 18th team this year then stays up to take the league back to 20.
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They are liecenced till the end of May. Season ends on the 22nd. It’s wether they can play next season
 

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