Relegation

[indieman1]

No way are we getting relegated this year. DCL and Richarlison will score too many for that to be a realistic scenario. Benitez likewise, for all his faults, should get us comfortably to 45+ points before he hopefully has the grace to walk away.

Next season however is starting to look a genuine concern. Absentee owner who is looking suspiciously like he's losing interest, next manager being a complete unknown quantity and our best players (all two of them) will doubtless be agitating to leave.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Yeah lets get Nuno because he did such a great job at Spurs.

Not inspired by anyone on that list. Hopefully its just a joke list.

That's who the betting markets think we'll get in if Rafael gets the sack.

That list is why some of us have questioned whether changing the manager will improve things. It's the sort of list a club generates after changing managers several times in recent years, and when the the expectations at the club are above the ability of the personnel to produce them.

 

[MACCA75]

That's not the way to assess whether one side is worse than another or not. The more accurate method is to objectively assess a given sides likely performance over a 38-game season... because that's how relegation is achieved or avoided.

It doesn't matter that we lost to Brentford (for instance) in the grand scheme of things - I mean, yes it's definitely a fixture we should be targeting for getting three points and it's a setback that we lost to them - what matters is how likely are Brentford to better than us over 36 games against 18 common opponents. And the answer is "not very". The same stands true for Burnley, Norwich and Newcastle, at the VERY least.

Are we having a poor season: yes.
Is it showing signs of staying poor for the immediate future? Yes
Will things get better once Mina and DCL return? Yes.
Do we need to get rid of half a dozen wage thieves? Yes.
Do we need some new faces in the squad? Yes.
Pineapple on pizza? Yes.

You would have a good argument here if Brentford weren’t above us in December with a game in hand.

We have to show we are a better team than Brentford, and we haven’t done it yet.

 

[ForeverBlue92]

That's who the betting markets think we'll get in if Rafael gets the sack.

That list is why some of us have questioned whether changing the manager will improve things. It's the sort of list a club generates after changing managers several times in recent years, and when the the expectations at the club are above the ability of the personnel to produce them.

110%

 

[Tree13]

You would have a good argument here if Brentford weren’t above us in December with a game in hand.

We have to show we are a better team than Brentford, and we haven’t done it yet.

Well surely the counterargument to your point (which has some validity, I'll agree) is that there are half a dozen clubs below us at the same time that Brentford are marginally ahead of us. Have we shown we are better than Norwich, Burnley, Newcastle, Leeds, Southampton and Watford so far? The table says yes, even if some of our individual performances say no.

I'm not happy with our league position, because I want us to be higher up the table. HOWEVER, I am not blind to the fact that our squad is paper thin, and even with average injuries / suspensions over the duration of the season I'd be be pleasantly surprised if we finished 10th.

The critical factors for the rest of the season are:

1) can we keep all our key players (Pickford, Mina, Godfrey, Coleman, Digne, Allan, Doucoure, Townsend, Gray, Richarlison and DCL) fit and available for 20 of the remaining 24 games? Yes, ALL of them. And let's not argue if they are each good enough to be classed as key players: until better options appear in the squad, the names I've mentioned are our best starting 11.

2) Can we somehow add some depth in January? If we can bring in a better RB and move Coleman to backup status we get a big improvement in the team as a whole; if we can bring in a decent CM on loan we can better manage the workload for Allan and Doucoure. So on and so forth. The problem with the depth question is that we HAVE to generate some funds, and some salary space, by selling some of the likes of Delph, Gomes, Gbamin, Iwobi, Keane, Sigurdsson, Rondon and Tosun. Having huge salaries on the books is crippling us.

 

[DanEFC92]

Aside from maybe Newcastle and Norwich we have the worst team in the league. So it's a worry.

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

Aside from maybe Newcastle and Norwich we have the worst team in the league. So it's a worry.

I'd agree our squad, without our best players, may be down there.

But our first choice starting XI is comfortably around 10th, plus or minus a few.

It's how much of that 11 plays that will dictate our fate

 

[diggerdestroyer]

Relegation hahaha, some of you crack me up. We are not going to get relegated. We have had a bad run due to a thin squad and terrible injuries. Tonight proved nothing. Liverpool are one of the best teams in the world and can do that to absolutely anyone in any given game. Once we have Mina back and DCL back and we start getting a few wins together we will be absolutely fine.

Debatable that 2 players will make such a difference. Also delusional that the possibility of relegation is not possible?. I believe we will just have enough but wouldnt rule out the possibility.

We are woeful. It is common place for us to leak 4 or 5 goals over last number of years. We arent shocked anymore if it happens. This is a panel that is not only poor in quality and depth but looks disorganised for years. Big sam prob was the only one who had us looking like we had some identity (defensive structure)which on itself is completely bonkers.

There are some teams that are as bad as us. And that is our saving grace. But we are as poor as them and this could be our downfall.My point being if its between ourselves and burnley to stay up last day ... I'm backing Burnley. Hopefully it wont come to that and somehow we will get the points on the board necessary

 

[Bluemersey]

No way are we getting relegated this year. DCL and Richarlison will score too many for that to be a realistic scenario. Benitez likewise, for all his faults, should get us comfortably to 45+ points before he hopefully has the grace to walk away.

Next season however is starting to look a genuine concern. Absentee owner who is looking suspiciously like he's losing interest, next manager being a complete unknown quantity and our best players (all two of them) will doubtless be agitating to leave.

So we are getting 30 points in your assessment. Richarlison hasn't exactly scored too many so far has he.

 

[DanEFC92]

I'd agree our squad, without our best players, may be down there.

But our first choice starting XI is comfortably around 10th, plus or minus a few.

It's how much of that 11 plays that will dictate our fate

Very rarely does so I stand by it.

 

[Bluemersey]

Well surely the counterargument to your point (which has some validity, I'll agree) is that there are half a dozen clubs below us at the same time that Brentford are marginally ahead of us. Have we shown we are better than Norwich, Burnley, Newcastle, Leeds, Southampton and Watford so far? The table says yes, even if some of our individual performances say no.

I'm not happy with our league position, because I want us to be higher up the table. HOWEVER, I am not blind to the fact that our squad is paper thin, and even with average injuries / suspensions over the duration of the season I'd be be pleasantly surprised if we finished 10th.

The critical factors for the rest of the season are:

1) can we keep all our key players (Pickford, Mina, Godfrey, Coleman, Digne, Allan, Doucoure, Townsend, Gray, Richarlison and DCL) fit and available for 20 of the remaining 24 games? Yes, ALL of them. And let's not argue if they are each good enough to be classed as key players: until better options appear in the squad, the names I've mentioned are our best starting 11.

2) Can we somehow add some depth in January? If we can bring in a better RB and move Coleman to backup status we get a big improvement in the team as a whole; if we can bring in a decent CM on loan we can better manage the workload for Allan and Doucoure. So on and so forth. The problem with the depth question is that we HAVE to generate some funds, and some salary space, by selling some of the likes of Delph, Gomes, Gbamin, Iwobi, Keane, Sigurdsson, Rondon and Tosun. Having huge salaries on the books is crippling us.

In no universe are Delph, Gomes, Gbamin, Iwobi, Keane, Sigurdsson, Rondon sellable assets so not sure how you think it's a viable option. All of them combined wouldn't bring in 10 million. No one would touch them if transfer fees are involved. We only have about 6 players worth actual transfer fees but we need each of those players. Clubs a mess.

 

[zukai12_]

Probably not this year

Probably not next year or the year after

But if we keep replacing good players with average ones, and replacing Average players with bad ones....

Who knows, one cold january morning in 2025 and we are 7 points adrift all of a sudden

 

[blue61]

No way are we getting relegated this year. DCL and Richarlison will score too many for that to be a realistic scenario. Benitez likewise, for all his faults, should get us comfortably to 45+ points before he hopefully has the grace to walk away.

Next season however is starting to look a genuine concern. Absentee owner who is looking suspiciously like he's losing interest, next manager being a complete unknown quantity and our best players (all two of them) will doubtless be agitating to leave.

What if one of Richarlison or DCL is sold in January to recoup some losses?

 

[WilliamPerry]

the situation is that bleak at the minute that I’m trying (desperately) to convince myself that a few trips to Preston , forest , blackburn etc won’t be too bad lol

then I remember it means an extra 8 games of misery

 

[Jokerdan]

It's looming...and I doubt we have the players or character within the club to avoid it.