The All Blacks should win but in a one off game you never know. Australia managed to beat them in the Tri Nations and South Africa ran them very close as well so both of those will come into the tournament with belief. South Africa have an awesome pack that could cause a lot of damage, whilst the Aussies probably have the best back line in the world at the moment. The key for the All Blacks will be keeping their back row intact. Four years ago our win was built on the back row of Hill, Back and Dallaglio, which was by far the best in the world. Now the All Blacks have by far the best with Collins, McCaw and So'oialo are head and shoulders above the others in those positions and give Carter the platform to weave his magic, whilst also slowing down the ball for the opposition.
Of the northern hemisphere sides, after the Six Nations I quite fancied Ireland but they've been ragged without O'Driscoll and with Australia and Argentina in their group will have to hit form quickly to even get out of the group stages. France look good against European teams but didn't look close to defeating New Zealand in their recent matches. Home advantage may help and they can't be overlooked.
And then there is England. In the front five we look capable of competing with anyone and will more than hold our own in the scrums and line outs. I'm not convinced that our back row has it in them to command the break down and an awful lot will rest on the inexperienced shoulders of Tom Rees to dominate that area. I'm just not sure he's up to it yet. The backs have failed to show anything in attack for quite a while and whilst they showed aggressive defence against France, and indeed on the tour to South Africa they tired badly against both to concede points late in the match. I'm inclined to think that the injury to Wilkinson could be a blessing in disguise because he never looks likely to ignite the back line and create havoc the way Carter, Larkham or Michalac do for their sides. It's no use him tackling like a flanker, the job of fly half is to create. Whether this is because his back row don't give him good enough ball or not I don't know but Charlie Hodgson was always better at creating. Regardless of whether he's fit or not though it does look like we'll play basic ten man rugby, with the front five + fly half providing territory and then relying on the boot to get the points. Boring as hell but if we can maintain strong defence throughout the match and not give away too many scoring penalties we may spring a surprise or two.