2022/23 Sean Dyche

[GrandOldTeam]

Think he got a bit lucky that while we went on a run of 1 win in 11, the teams around us were completely garbage.

Certainly Leicester during that same period of 11 games were worse than us despite have picked up 7 from 9 in the 3 games before it.

That's the thing with data/stats, you can tweak them to fit most narratives.

Why 1 win in 11? Why 11?

All that matters is the total points/points per game - and he picked up a lot of away points which could prove absolutely vital;

I make it 17 league games under Dyche;

W 4
D 6
L 7

Missing Wolves, but I think he's done very well all considered;

I've been curious for a while about what our 'chances of staying up' would look like plotted on a graph encompassing the whole season, so I made one:

View attachment 211406
(Data from FiveThirtyEight).

So we sacked Lampard at the absolute nadir.

The recovery certainly hasn't been linear, and it's felt that way. Though the trend is clearly broadly positive, mid to late April (Fulham loss to Newcastle loss) certainly looked ropey.

That huge spike after that is the Brighton game. Just goes to show what a colossal result that was.

Some of the oscillation under Dyche is presumably because results are more consequential late in the season, as time is running out, but it's still pretty wild I think - and there's little evidence on this alone of the sustained improvement we'd all have wanted when Lampard was sacked.

Still, as long as we creep over the line, that's ultimately all that matters this season.

I think that bold bit there mate makes any long term comparison not really of value - it's why a lot don't start doing relegation tracking until the final month, like so;

Who Will be Relegated from the Premier League? | Opta Analyst

Who Will Be Relegated From the Premier League? Using the Opta Supercomputer’s predictions, we’re able to find out the most likely outcome.

theanalyst.com

 

[Dixieslaces]

Gordon isn't a 45m player, nobody turned him into one, we got 45m because of how well the sale was negotiated

Wasnt gonna bite, but i will!
Was it by any chance "Big Billy" that did the negs on it!

BUT, yes he isnt a 45 mill player in a million years, never will be!

 

[4737carlin]

Wasnt gonna bite, but i will!
Was it by any chance "Big Billy" that did the negs on it!

BUT, yes he isnt a 45 mill player in a million years, never will be!

Well put it this way... it wasnt Moshiri !!!

 

[4737carlin]

That's the thing with data/stats, you can tweak them to fit most narratives.

Why 1 win in 11? Why 11?

All that matters is the total points/points per game - and he picked up a lot of away points which could prove absolutely vital;

I make it 17 league games under Dyche;

W 4
D 6
L 7

Missing Wolves, but I think he's done very well all considered;

View attachment 211413




I think that bold bit there mate makes any long term comparison not really of value - it's why a lot don't start doing relegation tracking until the final month, like so;

Who Will be Relegated from the Premier League? | Opta Analyst

Who Will Be Relegated From the Premier League? Using the Opta Supercomputer’s predictions, we’re able to find out the most likely outcome.

theanalyst.com

Out of those 17 games he has also had to play Arsenal twice, at Anfield and Old Trafford, plus hard visists to Goodison from Newcastle and City, 6 games right there, we did well to actually get 3 points from those fixtures

 

[GrandOldTeam]

Out of those 17 games he has also had to play Arsenal twice, at Anfield and Old Trafford, plus hard visists to Goodison from Newcastle and City, 6 games right there, we did well to actually get 3 points from those fixtures

Games Won

Arsenal Home,
Leeds Home,
Brentford Home,
Brighton Away

Games Drawn

Nottingham Forest Away
Chelsea Away
Tottenham Home
Crystal Palace Away
Leicester Away
Wolves Away

Games Lost

Liverpool Away
Aston Villa Home
Arsenal Away
Man Utd Away
Fulham Home
Newcastle Home
Man City Home

 

[Marius57]

That's the thing with data/stats, you can tweak them to fit most narratives.

Why 1 win in 11? Why 11?

All that matters is the total points/points per game - and he picked up a lot of away points which could prove absolutely vital;

I make it 17 league games under Dyche;

W 4
D 6
L 7

Missing Wolves, but I think he's done very well all considered;

1 in 11. Just because it’s a long period to go without winning. Benitez and Lampard had similar runs albeit we looked much worse during their runs.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think he has done badly. The losses we have had are pretty much all as expected.

But I also think he has thrown some opportunities away to get 3 points like against Leicester.

I’m on the fence whether I think he is the right man going forwards. I just don’t know if he can take us up another level to not be in this situation next season. Or at least not feeling nervy with 3/4 games to go even if we did ultimately end up on 41/42 points.

 

[Terrarian]

1 in 11. Just because it’s a long period to go without winning. Benitez and Lampard had similar runs albeit we looked much worse during their runs.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think he has done badly. The losses we have had are pretty much all as expected.

But I also think he has thrown some opportunities away to get 3 points like against Leicester.

I’m on the fence whether I think he is the right man going forwards. I just don’t know if he can take us up another level to not be in this situation next season. Or at least not feeling nervy with 3/4 games to go even if we did ultimately end up on 41/42 points.

I am on the fence but it hasn't been good enough so far. It's not even just results it's the bizarre team selections and playing people out of form and not using subs effectively or at least try to.

 

[brieverton]

Be a very strange decision to sack a manager who is on the brink of achieving the objective everyone set for him. With one hand tied.

 

[Nymzee]

Everton Forum

Be a very strange decision to sack a manager who is on the brink of achieving the objective everyone set for him. With one hand tied.

Allardyce?

 

[sbbefc]

Games Won

Arsenal Home,
Leeds Home,
Brentford Home,
Brighton Away

Games Drawn

Nottingham Forest Away
Chelsea Away
Tottenham Home
Crystal Palace Away
Leicester Away
Wolves Away

Games Lost

Liverpool Away
Aston Villa Home
Arsenal Away
Man Utd Away
Fulham Home
Newcastle Home
Man City Home

When you set it out like that, imo, the only games we can really complain about are the ones in bold. Have to remember he had no pre-season or transfer window.

He's not the kind of manager we would usually aspire to have. But given the situation we found ourselves in we have to give him a chance in the medium to long term.

 

[Bazlar]

Or... it was Thelwell's pick

If that is true its very worrying for the future

 

[perth_blue]

Games Won

Arsenal Home,
Leeds Home,
Brentford Home,
Brighton Away

Games Drawn

Nottingham Forest Away - win.
Chelsea Away
Tottenham Home - win.
Crystal Palace Away
Leicester Away - win.
Wolves Away

Games Lost

Liverpool Away
Aston Villa Home - win
Arsenal Away
Man Utd Away
Fulham Home - win
Newcastle Home - draw.
Man City Home

With a solid pre season, full time striker, and a new right winger. I'd like to think those results above could be achievable.

 

[GrandOldTeam]

Everton Forum


Allardyce?

Allardyce was always interim. He knew it too.

We couldn't get Silva/Watford dug their feet in much more than the club thought but the club knew Silva had end of season clause and so, in stepped Allardyce for a few months.

 

[Saint Domingo]

Games Won

Arsenal Home,
Leeds Home,
Brentford Home,
Brighton Away

Games Drawn

Nottingham Forest Away
Chelsea Away
Tottenham Home
Crystal Palace Away
Leicester Away
Wolves Away

Games Lost

Liverpool Away
Aston Villa Home
Arsenal Away
Man Utd Away
Fulham Home
Newcastle Home
Man City Home

Considering most teams in the bottom half have their best chance of points at home against fellow bottom half teams then the fixtures haven’t even been very favourable to Dyche with arguably most of his best point gaining opportunity fixtures already out the way when he arrived.

Forest, Leicester, Palace, Wolves, West Ham, Southampton all played under Lampard, we got 7 points from them. Imagine if this had read Arsenal Spurs City Newcastle Fulham Villa instead.

I’d wager Dyche would have got an awful lot more than 4 points from those home games, confidence would have been flowing, we would have been safe ages ago, other teams would have been down already, every metric possible would probably have been improved.

I personally think he came in with an absolutely horrendous fixture list, problems in every aspect of the squad, it’s been hit by injuries in the absolute key areas, and until maybe Leicester away he’s also had some terrible luck. If he keeps us up despite all of this it’s an absolute miracle job in my view.

 

[Gilbert..]

There was a spell for a few weeks his main options for changing something off the bench was Tom Davies.
For that reason alone im not questioning him. Yet.