The next 4 games

[toffeeblue9]

Are you ready for a bit of optimism?

When Everton finished 4th in 04/05, they had 30 points after 15 games. They got 10 points from the following 4 games to be on 40 points at the halfway stage.

In the 2nd half of the season, Everton collected only 21 points from the last 19 games - losing 10 of them.

Been banging on for ages but we COULD win our next 4 games if injuries and suspensions (McCarthy out this weekend, Barkley, Barry & Howard all on 4 yellows) go our way and we play as well as we can do. That would put us on the same basis that we were in back in 04/05 and we'd undoubtedly end the year in the top 4. 10 points from the next 4 games at least should be do-able.

Fulham (H)
Swansea (A)
Sunderland (H)
Southampton (H)

I would also back us to better the return Moyes' side got from their 2nd half of the season in 04/05.

Liverpool have 3 games to play against other members of the top 6 in the next four games. Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal have 2 games against other members whilst Spurs have one. Everton have none. We've played them all.

This 4 game period is absolutely crucial - we're the only side in the top 6 who aren't in danger of dropping points against other members of the top 6 before New Years' Day and the 2nd half of the season begins.

We'll have a much better idea of how things stand by then, but we could set ourselves up for something really special here

 

[formerly manx toffee]

IT'S ON.

 

[ijjysmith]

All this optimism makes me very very scared.

 

[neil999]

if we dont win all of them i will be dissapointed

awaits dissapointment

 

[Big Fat Sam]

Let's win the next seven ffs.

 

[ijjysmith]

Saints will screw us out of being unbeaten at home all year.

I just know it.

 

[malfosse]

It's SO on, onwards and upwards Blueboys.

 

[Eggs]

....think its good to compare milestones in previous seasons. I always think 20 points at Xmas is ok, 25+ is a real platform for a European push. Don't like looking at specific games because they rarely work out as envisaged, also with other teams struggling a little its a bit of an unknown what will be needed for top4. I know its a cliché, but one game at a time.

 

[malfosse]

Saints will screw us out of being unbeaten at home all year.

I just know it.

But that could also happen, ****!

 

[Billy Dean]

Saints will screw us out of being unbeaten at home all year.

I just know it.

There's defo a banana skin in there somewhere. But I'm hoping the Martinez mentality will give us the believe to say screw these and just put them to the sword

 

[toffeeblue9]

In fact, focussing on the top 4 bit...

Over the last 10 years this is what it has taken for a team to finish 4th and get into the CL:

03/04: Liverpool - 60 points
04/05 - Everton - 61 points
05/06 - Arsenal - 67 points
06/07 - Arsenal - 68 points
07/08 - Liverpool - 76 points
08/09 - Arsenal - 72 points
09/10 - Spurs - 70 points
10/11 - Arsenal 68 points
11/12 - Spurs - 69 points
12/13 - Arsenal - 73 points

Point here is that if we get to the halfway point on 38/40 points, it is unlikely to require quite the same points return over the following 19 games to make the top 4, so by getting to that point over the next 4 games, we give ourselves a real chance of being in the mix in May. Above that, I dare not dream just yet.

 

[Ihaters]

Saints will screw us out of being unbeaten at home all year.

I just know it.

Said a while back the only strike force I am concerned about whilst we are under Martinez is Liverpools and Southamptons. I don't like the way their strikers close down defenders quickly, its how they beat Liverpool and I think we will struggle against it.
Would take a point against them, not encountered anyone else that I don't think we will beat though.

 

[PaddyG]

In fact, focussing on the top 4 bit...

Over the last 10 years this is what it has taken for a team to finish 4th and get into the CL:

03/04: Liverpool - 60 points
04/05 - Everton - 61 points
05/06 - Arsenal - 67 points
06/07 - Arsenal - 68 points
07/08 - Liverpool - 76 points
08/09 - Arsenal - 72 points
09/10 - Spurs - 70 points
10/11 - Arsenal 68 points
11/12 - Spurs - 69 points
12/13 - Arsenal - 73 points

Point here is that if we get to the halfway point on 38/40 points, it is unlikely to require quite the same points return over the following 19 games to make the top 4, so by getting to that point over the next 4 games, we give ourselves a real chance of being in the mix in May. Above that, I dare not dream just yet.

Martinez thinks 71 points will be enough.

We need to beat the teams we are expected to beat at home, and grab one or two more wins away against the top sides.

We can do it! One game at a time though...

 

[toffeeblue9]

On average over the last 10 years, 69 points would be enough. I don't think we're in a particularly average season though as there are at least 7 teams who could make the top 4 (United could still do it, let's be honest), plus Newcastle and Southampton if they continue the way they've been going. 71-72 should be enough.

It's why these next 4 games are so important - everyone else will be dropping points, we have winnable games and we can make our lives a lot easier over the 2nd half of the season if we can get to 38-40 points before the Stoke game.

 

[blueblue]

I think that tomorrow could prove to be a real banana skin.
Fulham have improved under their new manager and are feeling better about themselves.
In three of our last four games we have played Liverpool,Utd and Arsenal,no problem with motivation there.

We have played so well in those games and are now expected to beat Fulham easily.
I just hope for a good start and an early goal