I'm glad you took my post in the spirit I intended, jokey doesn't always come across in writing so I did wonder whether you might think I was being serious.
As I said, my point was never really about Davies in particular, I just keep seeing Winks being used as an example of somebody who made a late breakthrough, and he didn't. It's very much the same as the 'everyone thought Kane was going to end up in the conference until he turned 22' shouts, they're just totally inaccurate.
Even if you only look at it from this season he's literally only just turned 23 this week, he's been a mainstay all season so he was very much 22 when he became a key player for them. Last season though, according to the same transfermarkt figures you're using, he started 18 games and missed 15 through injury. He also made his England debut 18 months ago (and was MOTM). If that doesn't count as having made your breakthrough I think we're being a little harsh with the criteria.
My original post was saying injuries had maybe prevented him from really kicking on and while I think that's still pretty obvious from the figures we're looking at, it's also where
just looking at stats becomes an issue. While transfermarkt lists the games where he was unavailable for selection, his issue has been with a chronic ankle problem which both he and his manager admit is still ongoing. Basically he was struggling to deal with the fact that he was constantly in pain/uncomfortable with his ankle and so while he was technically fit for selection he actually wasn't being picked because of an injury problem. A quick google shows me he talks about it here:
https://www.90min.com/posts/6253658...tino-for-helping-him-through-injury-nightmare. Note that he says the worst the injury ever got was after a game on 18 Feb, and yet transfermarkt just has him down as 'not in squad' for their next game a week later. I'm sure you'll accept that as the more up to date information you wanted, and agree that actually the 'evidence to the contrary' was really anything but firm.
It's quite possible that Winks wouldn't look particularly good outside of the Spurs side, that happens with players sometimes. I'm not sure I agree with your other points there though. Tom Carroll never made himself a fixture at Spurs. The most games he ever started in a season was 12, which is the same as Winks managed 2 years ago before he got injured, and you don't accept that he'd made himself a fixture at that point. Mason was a good solid pro but personally I don't think he ever looked remotely top class. Put it this way, if Winks was put up for sale now I think he'd be bought by a better side than Hull.
Finally, we have absolutely no idea if Winks was 'substantially behind Davies' three years ago, because as you even say yourself, he hadn't made his debut yet. You're making what seems like a common - but quite strange - mistake of acting as if getting into all PL sides is equally difficult. We've seen this before with people saying 'it's easy for Alexander-Arnold/Gomez/Rashford to look good in that side, Kenny/Holgate/DCL would be every bit as good', just completely ignoring the fact that while looking good once you're might in be easier, getting in in the first place is a damn sight harder. In order to get picked last week Davies basically had to be better than McCarthy (who hasn't been on a pitch in over a year) and Schneiderlin (whose heart hasn't been on one for even longer), while for Winks to be picked at 20 he had to better than a combination of Dembele, Wanyama, Alli, Dier, Mason and Bentaleb. It's quite possible that he was already better than Davies but couldn't break into the side.
