What makes a Premier League winning manager?
This is a really broad question, more than can be answered quickly and easily, and probably the sort that of question that will provide polarizing comments. But it’s also an entirely relevant question, more so now when Everton are looking for their next permanent appointment, so here is an overly analytical, thoroughly insufficient attempt to paint this picture in broad strokes.
The impetus for my thoughts on this was a statement I heard on “proven Premier League managers.” Granted, this comment was directed toward managers with a view of stabilizing a side—not necessarily picking who may be a future PL winning manager—but it made me wonder what type of manager is it who wins the PL?
In short, for those of you who… TL;DR
The best predictor of a manager’s success in the Premier League is past success. This is a wonderfully tautological, but still apparently very true, statement.
Also true: successful managers are successful early in their careers.
So how does this relate to Everton, or any other club with PL winning aspirations, in selecting their next manager? Let’s get to that, but first the data.
Methods:
I don’t have access to the fancy data sources, so my apologies if this is crude. And incomplete. It took me a long time to compile the numbers, and I’ll be glad to share data or take any help offered in adding more data.
I took all the managers who’ve won the top league of English football since 1970 (an arbitrary date, but you have to start/stop somewhere) and compiled the data looking specifically at titles won (any level; promotion alone does not count) and major silverware (euro or domestic cups), and when these occurred relevant to the manager’s career in general and specifically related to their time managing in England’s top league.
There are 21 managers in this selection: Conte, Ranieri, Mourinho, Pellegrini, Ferguson, Mancini, Ancellotti, Wenger, Dalglish, Wilkinson, Graham, Kendall, Fagan, Paisley, Saunders, Clough, Mackay, Revie, Shankly, Mee, and Catterick.
Notably, Wilkinson is the last English manager to win the English top league and the last manager to win before introduction of the Premier League, I’ve also split the group into those who won before Wilkinson and those who won after Wilkinson*. While football did not begin in 1992, it has been considerably different after 1992, and this seems evident in the data.
(*Dalglish won both before and after Wilkinson and so could be reasonably included—or excluded—from either group, but is included here in the data for those winning post-Wilkinson; Wilkinson himself is excluded from both groups.)
Unfortunatey, there isn’t any control group. This only looks at managers who have succeeded in winning the top league of England. It doesn’t compare to those who’ve won elsewhere and come into England but failed to win. See above regarding my crude methods and lack of time. If you’ve got data to add or ideas on improving this, let’s see them.
Results:
For managers who have won in England since 1970, they’ve won on average 4.0 titles in total. The median for this group is also 4.0. If you remove Ferguson, a clear outlier, the average drops to 3.4 titles.
Total titles won is higher in the group post-Wilkerson (avg 5.9, med 4.0, avg 4.5 without Ferguson) than pre-Wilkerson (avg 2.6, med 3.0).
Did these managers win somewhere else before winning in England’s top league? Fifteen of the twenty-one managers here won a title before winning England’s top league. Nine won a lower league title and eight won any other top league (while two won both a lower league and another top league) prior to their first England win.
How long did these managers spend in England’s top league before winning their first English title? Not very long. Before Wilkerson, an average of 2.5 (median 2.0) years; after Wilkinson an average of 1.7 (median 0.0) years. Since the PL began, 9 managers have won the title and 5 of them won it in their first attempt (Dalglish obviously before the PL era began).
If modern managers in England didn’t start managing in England, how long then did these managers spend in any top league before winning their first top league title of any sort? (You’ll notice below the results Pre-Wilkerson are the same as in the table above. For these managers, their first top league experience was in England.) Managers whose first top league experience was elsewhere have averaged 5.2 (median 3) years managing in a top league prior to their first top league title. If you remove Ranieri, the average drops to 3.6 years.
How long does it take for these managers to win a title of any sort? It takes 4.0 years (3.0 years median) on average to win any title (lower league, other top league, England top league). If you look at the managers post-Wilkerson, it takes an average of 3.2 (median 2.0) years prior to any title win.
Discussion and Conclusion:
What does this mean, if anything? The most indicative factor in a manager winning England’s top league may be prior success. Only 6 of 21 managers (29%) who have won since 1970 have not won any title prior to success in England’s top league. Of these 6, 2 were assistant coaches on the title-winning team prior to appointment as manager. In the current era, managers with titles in other top leagues is the norm (89%), and maybe the rule
Managers who win England’s top league usually show themselves as winning managers early in their managing career. Many managers won silverware of various sorts (not shown above), but most indicative was prior titles.
What about managers who’ve won England’s lower leagues—do these managers have any chance to win the Premier League? I’ll leave that for you to discuss whether Dyche or Howe can ever win the Premier League.
I suppose it’s possible, although I don’t have enough data to look at this. It would be useful to compare this against all managers in England’s top league since 1970 who’ve ever won a lower league or other top league. But seriously, I don’t have that much free time. Still, I don't feel confident that Allardyce or Moyes will ever win the PL, but there's always a chance... a (horse) puncher’s chance?
And I’m certain that what Everton needs is not a “proven Premier League manager,” unless of course relegation is in the cards, but that’s a different analysis altogether I suppose…
This is a really broad question, more than can be answered quickly and easily, and probably the sort that of question that will provide polarizing comments. But it’s also an entirely relevant question, more so now when Everton are looking for their next permanent appointment, so here is an overly analytical, thoroughly insufficient attempt to paint this picture in broad strokes.
The impetus for my thoughts on this was a statement I heard on “proven Premier League managers.” Granted, this comment was directed toward managers with a view of stabilizing a side—not necessarily picking who may be a future PL winning manager—but it made me wonder what type of manager is it who wins the PL?
In short, for those of you who… TL;DR
The best predictor of a manager’s success in the Premier League is past success. This is a wonderfully tautological, but still apparently very true, statement.
Also true: successful managers are successful early in their careers.
So how does this relate to Everton, or any other club with PL winning aspirations, in selecting their next manager? Let’s get to that, but first the data.
Methods:
I don’t have access to the fancy data sources, so my apologies if this is crude. And incomplete. It took me a long time to compile the numbers, and I’ll be glad to share data or take any help offered in adding more data.
I took all the managers who’ve won the top league of English football since 1970 (an arbitrary date, but you have to start/stop somewhere) and compiled the data looking specifically at titles won (any level; promotion alone does not count) and major silverware (euro or domestic cups), and when these occurred relevant to the manager’s career in general and specifically related to their time managing in England’s top league.
There are 21 managers in this selection: Conte, Ranieri, Mourinho, Pellegrini, Ferguson, Mancini, Ancellotti, Wenger, Dalglish, Wilkinson, Graham, Kendall, Fagan, Paisley, Saunders, Clough, Mackay, Revie, Shankly, Mee, and Catterick.
Notably, Wilkinson is the last English manager to win the English top league and the last manager to win before introduction of the Premier League, I’ve also split the group into those who won before Wilkinson and those who won after Wilkinson*. While football did not begin in 1992, it has been considerably different after 1992, and this seems evident in the data.
(*Dalglish won both before and after Wilkinson and so could be reasonably included—or excluded—from either group, but is included here in the data for those winning post-Wilkinson; Wilkinson himself is excluded from both groups.)
Unfortunatey, there isn’t any control group. This only looks at managers who have succeeded in winning the top league of England. It doesn’t compare to those who’ve won elsewhere and come into England but failed to win. See above regarding my crude methods and lack of time. If you’ve got data to add or ideas on improving this, let’s see them.
Results:
For managers who have won in England since 1970, they’ve won on average 4.0 titles in total. The median for this group is also 4.0. If you remove Ferguson, a clear outlier, the average drops to 3.4 titles.
Total titles won is higher in the group post-Wilkerson (avg 5.9, med 4.0, avg 4.5 without Ferguson) than pre-Wilkerson (avg 2.6, med 3.0).
Did these managers win somewhere else before winning in England’s top league? Fifteen of the twenty-one managers here won a title before winning England’s top league. Nine won a lower league title and eight won any other top league (while two won both a lower league and another top league) prior to their first England win.
How long did these managers spend in England’s top league before winning their first English title? Not very long. Before Wilkerson, an average of 2.5 (median 2.0) years; after Wilkinson an average of 1.7 (median 0.0) years. Since the PL began, 9 managers have won the title and 5 of them won it in their first attempt (Dalglish obviously before the PL era began).
If modern managers in England didn’t start managing in England, how long then did these managers spend in any top league before winning their first top league title of any sort? (You’ll notice below the results Pre-Wilkerson are the same as in the table above. For these managers, their first top league experience was in England.) Managers whose first top league experience was elsewhere have averaged 5.2 (median 3) years managing in a top league prior to their first top league title. If you remove Ranieri, the average drops to 3.6 years.
How long does it take for these managers to win a title of any sort? It takes 4.0 years (3.0 years median) on average to win any title (lower league, other top league, England top league). If you look at the managers post-Wilkerson, it takes an average of 3.2 (median 2.0) years prior to any title win.
Discussion and Conclusion:
What does this mean, if anything? The most indicative factor in a manager winning England’s top league may be prior success. Only 6 of 21 managers (29%) who have won since 1970 have not won any title prior to success in England’s top league. Of these 6, 2 were assistant coaches on the title-winning team prior to appointment as manager. In the current era, managers with titles in other top leagues is the norm (89%), and maybe the rule
Managers who win England’s top league usually show themselves as winning managers early in their managing career. Many managers won silverware of various sorts (not shown above), but most indicative was prior titles.
What about managers who’ve won England’s lower leagues—do these managers have any chance to win the Premier League? I’ll leave that for you to discuss whether Dyche or Howe can ever win the Premier League.
I suppose it’s possible, although I don’t have enough data to look at this. It would be useful to compare this against all managers in England’s top league since 1970 who’ve ever won a lower league or other top league. But seriously, I don’t have that much free time. Still, I don't feel confident that Allardyce or Moyes will ever win the PL, but there's always a chance... a (horse) puncher’s chance?
And I’m certain that what Everton needs is not a “proven Premier League manager,” unless of course relegation is in the cards, but that’s a different analysis altogether I suppose…
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