Install the app
How to install the app on iOS

Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.

Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.

  • Participation within this subforum is only available to members who have had 5+ posts approved elsewhere.

What makes a Premier League winning manager?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Must be Italian, Portuguese, Chilean, French or Scottish.

Crazy why our last 2 permanent managers have been Spanish and Dutch and we have an Englishman as a caretaker at the moment. :Blink: Do we ever do any research beforehand?! :p
 

SerenityNigh said:
What makes a Premier League winning manager?

This is a really broad question, more than can be answered quickly and easily, and probably the sort that of question that will provide polarizing comments. But it’s also an entirely relevant question, more so now when Everton are looking for their next permanent appointment, so here is an overly analytical, thoroughly insufficient attempt to paint this picture in broad strokes.

The impetus for my thoughts on this was a statement I heard on “proven Premier League managers.” Granted, this comment was directed toward managers with a view of stabilizing a side—not necessarily picking who may be a future PL winning manager—but it made me wonder what type of manager is it who wins the PL?


In short, for those of you who… TL;DR

The best predictor of a manager’s success in the Premier League is past success. This is a wonderfully tautological, but still apparently very true, statement.

Also true: successful managers are successful early in their careers.

So how does this relate to Everton, or any other club with PL winning aspirations, in selecting their next manager? Let’s get to that, but first the data.


Methods:

I don’t have access to the fancy data sources, so my apologies if this is crude. And incomplete. It took me a long time to compile the numbers, and I’ll be glad to share data or take any help offered in adding more data.

I took all the managers who’ve won the top league of English football since 1970 (an arbitrary date, but you have to start/stop somewhere) and compiled the data looking specifically at titles won (any level; promotion alone does not count) and major silverware (euro or domestic cups), and when these occurred relevant to the manager’s career in general and specifically related to their time managing in England’s top league.

There are 21 managers in this selection: Conte, Ranieri, Mourinho, Pellegrini, Ferguson, Mancini, Ancellotti, Wenger, Dalglish, Wilkinson, Graham, Kendall, Fagan, Paisley, Saunders, Clough, Mackay, Revie, Shankly, Mee, and Catterick.

Notably, Wilkinson is the last English manager to win the English top league and the last manager to win before introduction of the Premier League, I’ve also split the group into those who won before Wilkinson and those who won after Wilkinson*. While football did not begin in 1992, it has been considerably different after 1992, and this seems evident in the data.

(*Dalglish won both before and after Wilkinson and so could be reasonably included—or excluded—from either group, but is included here in the data for those winning post-Wilkinson; Wilkinson himself is excluded from both groups.)

Unfortunatey, there isn’t any control group. This only looks at managers who have succeeded in winning the top league of England. It doesn’t compare to those who’ve won elsewhere and come into England but failed to win. See above regarding my crude methods and lack of time. If you’ve got data to add or ideas on improving this, let’s see them.


Results:

For managers who have won in England since 1970, they’ve won on average 4.0 titles in total. The median for this group is also 4.0. If you remove Ferguson, a clear outlier, the average drops to 3.4 titles.

Total titles won is higher in the group post-Wilkerson (avg 5.9, med 4.0, avg 4.5 without Ferguson) than pre-Wilkerson (avg 2.6, med 3.0).


Screen_Shot_2017-10-30_at_2.39.13_PM.png



Did these managers win somewhere else before winning in England’s top league? Fifteen of the twenty-one managers here won a title before winning England’s top league. Nine won a lower league title and eight won any other top league (while two won both a lower league and another top league) prior to their first England win.


Screen_Shot_2017-10-30_at_2.39.01_PM.png



How long did these managers spend in England’s top league before winning their first English title? Not very long. Before Wilkerson, an average of 2.5 (median 2.0) years; after Wilkinson an average of 1.7 (median 0.0) years. Since the PL began, 9 managers have won the title and 5 of them won it in their first attempt (Dalglish obviously before the PL era began).


Screen_Shot_2017-10-30_at_2.39.26_PM.png



If modern managers in England didn’t start managing in England, how long then did these managers spend in any top league before winning their first top league title of any sort? (You’ll notice below the results Pre-Wilkerson are the same as in the table above. For these managers, their first top league experience was in England.) Managers whose first top league experience was elsewhere have averaged 5.2 (median 3) years managing in a top league prior to their first top league title. If you remove Ranieri, the average drops to 3.6 years.


Screen_Shot_2017-10-30_at_2.39.33_PM.png



How long does it take for these managers to win a title of any sort? It takes 4.0 years (3.0 years median) on average to win any title (lower league, other top league, England top league). If you look at the managers post-Wilkerson, it takes an average of 3.2 (median 2.0) years prior to any title win.

Screen_Shot_2017-10-30_at_2.39.41_PM.png


Discussion and Conclusion:

What does this mean, if anything? The most indicative factor in a manager winning England’s top league may be prior success. Only 6 of 21 managers (29%) who have won since 1970 have not won any title prior to success in England’s top league. Of these 6, 2 were assistant coaches on the title-winning team prior to appointment as manager. In the current era, managers with titles in other top leagues is the norm (89%), and maybe the rule

Managers who win England’s top league usually show themselves as winning managers early in their managing career. Many managers won silverware of various sorts (not shown above), but most indicative was prior titles.

What about managers who’ve won England’s lower leagues—do these managers have any chance to win the Premier League? I’ll leave that for you to discuss whether Dyche or Howe can ever win the Premier League.

I suppose it’s possible, although I don’t have enough data to look at this. It would be useful to compare this against all managers in England’s top league since 1970 who’ve ever won a lower league or other top league. But seriously, I don’t have that much free time. Still, I don't feel confident that Allardyce or Moyes will ever win the PL, but there's always a chance... a (horse) puncher’s chance?

And I’m certain that what Everton needs is not a “proven Premier League manager,” unless of course relegation is in the cards, but that’s a different analysis altogether I suppose…
Click to expand...

Gave you a like for quantity...Charts and Graphs and Stats, great for some things
Football is a simple game made complicated by 'experts' aka BS-ers

The key to a being a better manger (results-wise) is Better Players...Period - as is said over the Atlantic.

I might even read it later
 
degsy said:
Gave you a like for quantity...Charts and Graphs and Stats, great for some things
Football is a simple game made complicated by 'experts' aka BS-ers

The key to a being a better manger (results-wise) is Better Players...Period - as is said over the Atlantic.

I might even read it later
Click to expand...

So another £150m in January and Moyes it is? Ok by me.
 

WA Toffee said:
Is European / South American success a good indicator? Most of these managers listed have won either a European trophy or South American trophy before coaching in England?
Click to expand...

Yes, although you'd need to compare against all managers who won elsewhere but failed in England. I also wondered if winning any major trophy (domestic cup or euro/SA cup) was a good indicator, but it seems these managers are more likely to win their league early. So, yes, winning in other Euro/SA leagues seems important.

Of those who won nothing prior to winning in England, Mee, Paisley, Fagan, and Dalglish had no prior experience before managing their top league clubs. Kendall, Grahan, and Mackay did, but didn't win a league prior to their top success. Wilkinson, Saunders, Clough, Revie, Shankly, and Catterick all won the lower league title (not just promotion) before winning the top league.

Of the newer managers, all of whom had experience abroad prior to managing in England, Conte and Ranieri won lower leagues first (Conte also won Serie A). The remaining managers won top leagues first: Mourinho (Primeira Liga); Pellegrini (Ecuador Serie A; Argentine Primera Division); Ferguson (SPL); Mancini (Serie A); Ancellotti (Serie A); Wenger (Ligue 1).
 
SerenityNigh said:
Yes, although you'd need to compare against all managers who won elsewhere but failed in England. I also wondered if winning any major trophy (domestic cup or euro/SA cup) was a good indicator, but it seems these managers are more likely to win their league early. So, yes, winning in other Euro/SA leagues seems important.

Of those who won nothing prior to winning in England, Mee, Paisley, Fagan, and Dalglish had no prior experience before managing their top league clubs. Kendall, Grahan, and Mackay did, but didn't win a league prior to their top success. Wilkinson, Saunders, Clough, Revie, Shankly, and Catterick all won the lower league title (not just promotion) before winning the top league.

Of the newer managers, all of whom had experience abroad prior to managing in England, Conte and Ranieri won lower leagues first (Conte also won Serie A). The remaining managers won top leagues first: Mourinho (Primeira Liga); Pellegrini (Ecuador Serie A; Argentine Primera Division); Ferguson (SPL); Mancini (Serie A); Ancellotti (Serie A); Wenger (Ligue 1).
Click to expand...
Sorry, I was meaning European / SA success as in champions league, europa cup, copa liberatedores etc. Most of the managers listed have won at least one of those prior to coming to the epl
 

Status
Not open for further replies.

Welcome to GrandOldTeam

Get involved. Registration is simple and free.

Register
Back
Top