Relegation

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I think I’m a lot more level headed about things since our 7 points in 9 and just wanted to talk about one thing:
A lot of people were VERY paranoid that EVERYONE wanted us to get relegated when we dropped into the bottom three and got loads of abuse on social media and the media overall.
Seeing how Leeds are being ridiculed now in the exact same way we were because they’re now the most likely and remembering how Burnley were being treated to ‘we can’t wait til you go down because you play horrible football and injure our players’, I think it’s just a case of rival fans with nothing better to do than revel in misery. I think we had a little more than normal because we’ve only ever been relegated twice and spent more seasons in the top flight than anyone else but there were a few on here that went a bit over the top with the conspiracy theories!
 

Burnley are going to get absolutely mullered. GD advantage over us will be gone by 2.30 pm.

They have definitely took the same approach as us vs Chelsea. Don’t see them having much going forward though. It’s going to be wave after wave. Spurs should have had a couple already.
 
This does not cover every scenario.

At 2 points ahead of Leeds. Everton are safe if they better Leeds result today, ie win if Leeds draws, or win or draw if Leeds loses. They would then be least 3 points ahead of Leeds with Leeds having only one game left and losing the tiebreaker on GD.

Burnley and Leeds are level on points but Leeds have only 2 games left going into today and Burnley have three, and Burnley gets the tiebreaker. The scenarios where Leeds get ahead of both Burnley and Everton involve: Leeds winning out, Burnley getting 5/9 or less, AND Everton getting 3/9 or less. If Leeds get only 4/6, they only stay up if Burnley get 3/6 or less AND Everton get zero or one out of nine. If Leeds get 3/6, Everton have to lose out and Burnley have to get 2/6 or less.
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Essentially if Leeds lose today they are dead if the other two both win, and a realistic shot only if Burnley lose or draw AND Everton lose. If Leeds draw and Everton get anything Leeds are dead.

Even if Leeds win out they are dead if Burnley also win out OR Everton get 4/9 or more.

In any scenario where Leeds stay up, Everton have a two point lead on Burnley with both having three left and Burnley with +2 GD.

Will update after each result today.

Statistics-analysis site FiveThirtyEight has the odds of going down at 6% Everton, 31% Burnley and 64% Leeds.
 


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