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2024/25 Relegation Thread

We’re much closer to the relegation zone than we were before it so I’m not entirely sure about that one.
I feel like I should say because of recent posts… I think you’re an ace poster. Sometimes we agree and back each other up and sometimes we disagree and call each other bellends but (I hope) we don’t really mean it, it’s just words.
 
I feel like I should say because of recent posts… I think you’re an ace poster. Sometimes we agree and back each other up and sometimes we disagree and call each other bellends but (I hope) we don’t really mean it, it’s just words.

Mike's a lovely guy. I speak to him a fair bit on DMs. A great guy, who can disagree but is also very civil about it.
 
Not counting this season, there have been 91 times when a team have parted company with their manager while in the drop zone - and on 36 of those occasions they avoided relegation.

That is a success rate of 40%, so we know the difficult decision can work.

Of those 36 cases, five of the teams were exactly five points adrift when the manager left, like Wolves.

Sam Allardyce kept up two of those five teams - Blackburn in 2008-09 and Sunderland in 2015-16.

Tony Parkes, as a caretaker, saved Blackburn from such a perilous position in 1996-97, while Harry Redknapp saw Tottenham to safety in 2008-09.

Tony Pulis helped Crystal Palace avoid the drop in 2013-14, although by the time he took over from caretaker Keith Millen they were only three points off safety.

Only one of those five instances happened this late in a season, though - when Blackburn sacked Paul Ince on 16 December 2008 and hired Allardyce two days later.

The other four changes with teams five points adrift all happened in October.

One good omen for Wolves is that they were the second most recent team who changed managers while in the bottom three and stayed up.

That was when Julen Lopetegui replaced Bruno Lage - via Steve Davis' caretaker spell - just before the 2022 World Cup.
 
Sheffield Wednesday are potentially a far bigger club than Southampton, if he gets the right backing he should stay with them.

Their owner is a nutcase, the fans want him out, he's got no money to spend, and they've been pulled up for tax reporting again so are either looking at a transfer embargo or points.

He'll go if another club game in. But there's a rumour Rohl's got a big payout on his contract that Saints probably don't want to pay.
 

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I just can't see this working out well for them at all, perhaps 10 years ago when he was at Porto but coming to a relegation fight with a team whose splintered, their fans jaded and money issues just seems like a genuine recipe for disaster. It's not like the fella is coming from Germany or Italy, he's been in so many crap leagues phoning it in.
 

Wolves, Palace potentially. Brentford, we won there last season as well.

Wolves and Palace feel more like playing for draws, indeed you wouldn't blame Dyche for going to Molineux and setting up defensively if 5-6 points clear of them going into that game.

Brentford is an interesting one, they surely won't keep this home form up for the whole season so would rather go there when they've had a couple of poor home defeats and are safe in mid table.

Then in run in it's away to Fulham and Forest who may have little to play for, again better to go there in April/May than now with both flying.

Agree two away wins are needed from somewhere to have a comfortable last five games.
 

Given that there are many managers with better pedigree out of work what this suggests to me is they have really struggled to attract credible candidates.

I think if they were promising decent funds to spend in Jan you’d have a few better managers willing to take a punt, there’s some decent players there if you upgrade the defence a bit.

But under these owners it just seems like managed decline now, and this suggests they won’t spend in January, and I suspect may even sell someone like Cunha to recoup some more money, then just take the parachute payments rather than throw more money at staying up.

That doesn’t mean Pereira will keep them up but I doubt he’ll have much help from the owners doing so.
 

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