You make a good point about large swings.The difficulty with looking at PPG and all that is the margins are so small that the data doesn't really tell you anything that the table itself doesn't already. I mean if we were to win 2 in a row now and the others pick up nothing then you'd say we were virtually safe, but if the reverse happens then we're in deep trouble. The swings on individual weeks can be massive when you're looking at 1 win potentially giving you 10% of the total points you need to stay up.
If Southampton somehow beat Newcastle in their next match, their PPG goes up by 43% and their points total goes up by 50%. That’s from one game - after 22 played.