We stayed up on 36 last year, to match that IF we get a 20 point deduction (assuming 36 would keep us up, which it should considering the quality difference between the bottom 3 of this year and last year) means we need a 56 point season.
We've earned 27 points so far so in that scenario we'd need to get 29 more from a possible 51. If we assume the promoted teams won't clear 30 points, then we need around 24 more points. 8 wins from 17 games, or any combination including draws If we do that, and the promoted lot finish on 30 or less then we'll be safe even if we finish the season waiting on an appeal judgement.
to follow that up
18 points from the last 17 last season
20 points from the last 17 the season before
It'll be tight, but it is doable especially if its only in the 20-24 region we end up needing. especially as we're better this year. The return games against Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United (and potentially Forest) are HUGE