The scale is all important and everything else is just guesswork really. As I mentioned above re this new "minor breach" anything in single digits I think need not be points, especially with other mitigations / cooperation.
Anything under 14 also creates an interesting situation where the total of our two breaches could still be less than Forest's one. I don't know if that would be formally considered but optically it looks pretty unfair if we are already on a greater punishment and get still more when our combined total is less.
Like you say, if our breach is worse than last time, with 40m seemingly to play with, I absolutely give up.