BIT COIN (S)

[orly]

“It essentially offers a decentralized ledger of all transactions across a network: When a transaction occurs, everyone on the network knows about it. It’s tamper-proof and virtually instantaneous. This has real disruptive implications for the financial industry, which today uses other processes to keep records for asset transfers and more.”

I just ripped that from here

https://www.pwc.com/us/en/financial-services/research-institute/blockchain.html

But the ability to follow all details of a product through from the earliest part of the supply chain right through to sale will be very helpful for numerous reasons.

To be fair any major healthcare company that produces medical devices can do exactly this, right now.

 

[efcjames]

?

I'd say anyone who invests in something and doesn't have even the slightest concern about not getting their money back is a total anomaly. Literally no serious investor would think that.

Again, this is missing the point though.

To use Kev's example, he could sell 10% of his current hold to recover his entire initial stake. Money back and currently sitting on a huge profit. If you use my earlier example of a totally hypothetical 80% markdown, Kev would still be in profit (albeit it would feel like a kick in the guts). For the vast majority of recent (last three months) investors, that 80% markdown would be catastrophic with absolutely zero guarantee that a (very) long term hold would seem them back to solid ground.

Of course it's wise to cash in on small percentages if you're still making a profit on it, it's your choice. I just don't see a fatal crash happening anytime soon.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Of course it's wise to cash in on small percentages if you're still making a profit on it, it's your choice. I just don't see a fatal crash happening anytime soon.

You're quite right I don't see any crash, if I heard the alarm bells I would walk no problem but the signals aren't there telling me this is the top right now. For example this bull run last night has held completely with no attempt at a pull back which is highly unusual and a sign of strength imo.

What's also interesting is the gains are still holding in percentage terms. For example we went 10x last year to move from 1k to 10k, and now it seems we are adding 1k per night at weekly intervals. I had thought the gains would be limited in fiat terms - i.e .the percentage gains would reduce while the amount of fiat pumped into it stayed roughly even.

Its taken me by surprise a bit and for that reason that I now see 50k end of 2018 as a reasonable shout.

 

[orly]

Point of view article which is broadly pro-Bitcoin as an idea

One paragraph:

The many thefts and ripoffs that occurred in the early days of bitcoin call to mind the movie The Treasure of Sierra Madre, a fine drama of greed and corruption set during the 1920's. There can be no question that the prospect of instantaneous wealth, almost close enough to touch, can drive people insane. Note, however, that the propensity of greed to produce crime and insanity did not cause the value of gold to evaporate.

The real caveat here is that the incorruptibility of the bitcoin ledger survived, not only because of the system’s distribution, not only because of its clever cryptographic safeguards, but because of the good faith and good sense of individual developers who shepherded the project through its wobbly-legged infancy. Without the sangfroid of Gavin Andresen, who was effectively bitcoin’s sole steward during many of its early moments of crisis, the project might easily have died. Even today, the various forks and growing pains still bedeviling the bitcoin system are providing a kind of stress test. At present (this is just my opinion) the relative untrustworthiness of bitcoin’s core devs, who are thought by many to be strategizing for their own benefit, may be inflicting lasting damage not only to the cause of bitcoin, but also to the promise of blockchain technology in general.

 

[orly]

You're quite right I don't see any crash, if i heard the alarm bells I would walk no problem but the signals aren't there telling me this is the top right now. For example this bull run last night has held completely with no attempt at a pull back which is highly unusual and a sign of strength imo.

What's also interesting is the gains are still holding in percentage terms. For example we went 10x last year to move from 1k to 10k, and now it seems we are adding 1k per night at weekly intervals. I had thought the gains would be limited in fiat terms - i.e .the percentage gains would reduce while the amount of fiat pumped into it stayed roughly even.

Its taken me by surprise a bit and for that reason that I now see 50k end of 2018 as a reasonable shout.

Turning your initial ~£35k investment into £2m . That's a desposit for a moderate four-bed house outside of the London zones to something insane.

Kev, do you not see how mad that sort of projection is?

 

[Kev The Rat]

Turning your initial ~£35k investment into £2m .

Kev, do you not see how mad that sort of projection is?

I know people who have done just that today - 55k investment into bitcoin into 2m right now in fact I just spoke to him on the phone - are they mad? Obviously he bought about a year or so earlier than me.

 

[orly]

I know people who have done just that today - 55k investment into bitcoin into 2m in fact - are they mad?

If there are predictions - and we've got two people here saying it would 1. bounce back beyond current levels after a crash and 2. getting to £20k per coin in January 2018 and 50k in December 2018, why are these ultra brave investors - and they are, if they went in at £55k at the same time as you - suddenly selling up with so much left on the table?

That makes absolutely no sense.

 

[Kev The Rat]

If there are predictions - and we've got two people here saying it would 1. bounce back beyond current levels after a crash and 2. getting to £20k per coin in January 2018 and 50k in December 2018, why are these ultra brave investors - and they are, if they went in at £55k at the same time as you - suddenly selling up with so much left on the table?

That makes absolutely no sense.

all i will say plenty of people have tried to bet against bitcoin by walking away from it and its regularly come back to bite them. i know my mate isn't walking away from the table and he's actually in rented accommodation!

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Of course it's wise to cash in on small percentages if you're still making a profit on it, it's your choice. I just don't see a fatal crash happening anytime soon.

You're quite right I don't see any crash, if I heard the alarm bells I would walk no problem but the signals aren't there telling me this is the top right now. For example this bull run last night has held completely with no attempt at a pull back which is highly unusual and a sign of strength imo.

What's also interesting is the gains are still holding in percentage terms. For example we went 10x last year to move from 1k to 10k, and now it seems we are adding 1k per night at weekly intervals. I had thought the gains would be limited in fiat terms - i.e .the percentage gains would reduce while the amount of fiat pumped into it stayed roughly even.

Its taken me by surprise a bit and for that reason that I now see 50k end of 2018 as a reasonable shout.

A question for you both. You've mentioned paying off your mortgage, but how comfortable would you be using bitcoin for your mortgage? In other words, having debt in the currency.

 

[orly]

all i will say plenty of people have tried to bet against bitcoin by walking away from it and its regularly come back to bite them. i know my mate isn't walking away from the table and he's actually in rented accommodation!

To be honest Kev, can't see what is wrong in living in rented accommodation, especially if you live in central London or move every couple of years.

Another thing I don't understand; if people see an intrinsic value in bitcoin, they invested in it because they (typically, and looking back through posts on here) felt that standard currencies were losing their intrinsic buying power. The buying power of a single dollar has gone down 90% in the last 90 years. So why are they suddenly cashing in their bitcoin positions and returning it all to fiat currency?

I would love to know definitively whether the current bubble is fulled by a high volume of small purchases or small volume massive purchases.

 

[Kev The Rat]

To be honest Kev, can't see what is wrong in living in rented accommodation, especially if you live in central London or move every couple of years.

Another thing I don't understand; if people see an intrinsic value in bitcoin, they invested in it because they (typically, and looking back through posts on here) felt that standard currencies were losing their intrinsic buying power. The buying power of a single dollar has gone down 90% in the last 90 years. So why are they suddenly cashing in their bitcoin positions and returning it all to fiat currency?

I would love to know definitively whether the current bubble is fulled by a high volume of small purchases or small volume massive purchases.

I understand what you mean about renting given the costs of housing in London.

Not sure I understand what you mean About selling bitcoin though . In every trade there is a sale price. I mean you can get hold of anything from some people if you pay enough. It’s not people running away or shorting the market as you seem to insinuate

 

[orly]

Not sure I understand what you mean . In every trade there is a sale price. I mean you can get hold of anything from some people if you pay enough. It’s not people running away or shorting the market as you seem to insinuate

Ok.

So the price today is ~$12,000.

You've predicted ~$20,000 in early 2018 and ~$50,000 in late 2018.

You've got friends who went in in early / mid 2016 at roughly the $450-630 point.

If there is no crash coming (you) and it would bounce back anyway (efcjames) why cash out now if you've already been strong enough to plow on through some amazing ceilings already (the 1k, 5k, 10k point)? Especially if you know it will nearly double in a month and quintuple in 12 months.

That's just from a trader point of view.

From a 'faith in the integrity of cryptocurrency as an alternative to the current system' point of view, why would you cash in your position at all, just to return it into the ultimately-to-fail currency we use today?

If the shrewdies who bought in mid 2016 (only one year one from one of its big downturns, the $200 in early 2015) are getting out now, that should have all your alarms ringing.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Ok.

So the price today is ~$12,000.

You've predicted ~$20,000 in early 2018 and ~$50,000 in late 2018.

You've got friends who went in in early / mid 2016 at roughly the $450-630 point.

If there is no crash coming (you) and it would bounce back anyway (efcjames) why cash out now if you've already been strong enough to plow on through some amazing ceilings already (the 1k, 5k, 10k point)? Especially if you know it will nearly double in a month and quintuple in 12 months.

That's just from a trader point of view.

From a 'faith in the integrity of cryptocurrency as an alternative to the current system' point of view, why would you cash in your position at all, just to return it into the ultimately-to-fail currency we use today?

If the shrewdies who bought in mid 2016 (only one year one from one of its big downturns, the $200 in early 2015) are getting out now, that should have all your alarms ringing.

Who says its the shrewdies who bought mid 2016 that are selling up? Maybe its the weak hands? Of course its true that you do need fiat currency to survive on a day to day basis, to pay the bills, rent, mortgage etc.

I could apply your logic to people who sold at 4,000, 5,000 and 6,000 let alone 10k as we are now. And those sellers/traders have all been proved wrong. if indeed they were playing the market and not selling for their own personal reasons (more likely)

 

[bobbydigital]

To be fair any major healthcare company that produces medical devices can do exactly this, right now.

Even if you are on the purchasing side?

 

[orly]

Who says its the shrewdies who bought mid 2016 that are selling up? Maybe its the weak hands? Of course its true that you do need fiat currency to survive on a day to day basis, to pay the bills, rent, mortgage etc.

I could apply your logic to people who sold at 4,000, 5,000 and 6,000 let alone 10k as we are now. And those sellers/traders have all been proved wrong. if indeed they were playing the market and not selling for their own personal reasons (more likely)

Well, you say it here mate

I know people who have done just that today - 55k investment into bitcoin into 2m right now in fact I just spoke to him on the phone - are they mad? Obviously he bought about a year or so earlier than me.

working a year back from the times you gave us from your purchases.

I could apply your logic to people who sold at 4,000, 5,000 and 6,000 let alone 10k as we are now.

Again - I'd be interested to see what the trading volume looked like at those prices.

Of course its true that you do need fiat currency to survive on a day to day basis, to pay the bills, rent, mortgage etc.

Ah - we are getting to the question now; what fuels your confidence that BitCoin will continue to rise at such a fantastic rate? What really underpins that confidence?

I've seen it suggested that the current fuel for the bitcoin rise is that 'people are now seeing it as a legitimate alternative to standard currency'. Then why sell it now? In 5-10 years time when fiat currency loses all of its intrinsic purchasing value, you'd still be the holder of decent currency. Or perhaps they've invested EVERYTHING in to BitCoin, so they need to cash out to 'survive on a day to day basis, to pay the bills, rent, mortgage etc.' as you say. So currently you've got a currency that can't be used to pay bills, pay rent, pay the mortgage, buy food... but it still worth 12,000 x the US Dollar.

Seems absolutely mad to me