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Cryptocurrencies

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Well and truly popping now. I would expect a 90-95% peak to trough fall.

I'm revising this now and saying that I expect a 98-99% peak to trough fall. BTC will be under $400 at some point in the next 3 years.

People are realising that there is no such "thing" as a Bitcoin. It's just binary digits. The technology itself will pave the way for better peer to peer transactions - BTC is like the first blockchain app, but just as nobody today pays $20,000 for an e-mail application as a result of the tech boom, nobody in future will dream about paying anything but a tiny percentage for benefiting from blockchain.
 
I'm going to exhibit a character flaw I'm not particularly proud of in a moment. That flaw is basically getting satisfaction from seeing a smart alec ( or a smart Kev ) looking a bit foolish.

So, here we go ....

For the record, I still hope it crashes and Kev loses a paper fortune though. In a perverse way, that would give me pleasure.

All together now, sing "Oh Happy Day, Oh Happy Day ..."

Mind you, Kev's having the last laugh, he's still sitting on a very large paper profit, but it's half what it was not long ago.

All this goes to show that the traders ditty about "The trend being your friend" works both ways. Basically, don't sell too soon, but when momentum shifts, don't be afraid to take profits either.

Anyway ...

 

I'm revising this now and saying that I expect a 98-99% peak to trough fall. BTC will be under $400 at some point in the next 3 years.

People are realising that there is no such "thing" as a Bitcoin. It's just binary digits. The technology itself will pave the way for better peer to peer transactions - BTC is like the first blockchain app, but just as nobody today pays $20,000 for an e-mail application as a result of the tech boom, nobody in future will dream about paying anything but a tiny percentage for benefiting from blockchain.

More likely, less than $300 in less than a year, with a rebound to at least $2,000 within 2

Although this reminds me of what NN Taleb wrote in one his books (they're all the same): the probable success of an unlikely event and the probability of success of an unlikely event are two very different questions.
 
BTC will be under $400 at some point in the next 3 years.

More likely, less than $300 in less than a year, with a rebound to at least $2,000 within 2

It's unclear exactly what the costs of mining Bitcoin are, but, at the price you guys are quoting, the business model looks unsustainable, well, unless you can find a load of people who are happy to speculate to drive the price up.
 
See below. How they know this, I don't know. But given that BTC is a commodity and has no other intrinsic value, cost to mine won't be a floor against market shocks, although it might be a reasonable target if you think it will regress to this value.

I've previously commented on how I think BTC price could be determined, but I can't find that post and am not really arsed to reconsider it. But I think until BTC price corresponds with the value of reasonable "normal" transactions, it's not sustainable as a currency.

MW-GA334_LUxpvD_20171215141401_NS.jpg
 

I’m surprised so many seem to think crypto will fail.

Bitcoin may, that’s not a silly idea, as it lost a big chunk of market share in the past few months.

However crypto as a whole won’t fail, there’s too much involved in it, mainly in Asia.

Thousands of companies have invested in it, here and abroad. IBM have partnered with Stellar, VeChain has so many massive partnerships I can’t even name them. Neo is another one with huge partnerships where money Has been spent and Ripple is ran by banks.

Any investors should just hold.
 
The real questions is "why would you want to mine them if they have no intrinsic value?"
Mining, even in the digital realm has costs and wastes resources if there is nothing useful at the end.

I'm not say that bitcoin or blockchain is useless, but equally you have to ask what problem are they really solving? Transactions between parties will happen in the future with or without this technology.

See below. How they know this, I don't know. But given that BTC is a commodity and has no other intrinsic value, cost to mine won't be a floor against market shocks, although it might be a reasonable target if you think it will regress to this value.

I've previously commented on how I think BTC price could be determined, but I can't find that post and am not really arsed to reconsider it. But I think until BTC price corresponds with the value of reasonable "normal" transactions, it's not sustainable as a currency.

MW-GA334_LUxpvD_20171215141401_NS.jpg
 
I’m surprised so many seem to think crypto will fail.

Bitcoin may, that’s not a silly idea, as it lost a big chunk of market share in the past few months.

However crypto as a whole won’t fail, there’s too much involved in it, mainly in Asia.

Thousands of companies have invested in it, here and abroad. IBM have partnered with Stellar, VeChain has so many massive partnerships I can’t even name them. Neo is another one with huge partnerships where money Has been spent and Ripple is ran by banks.

Any investors should just hold.

Dont forget about it curing world hunger and ending all civil wars in the world and of course, the crypto mantra of sticking it to the banks.

Its a fad that will be a distant memory in a few years.
 

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