2024/25 David Moyes

[Lanolin]

"In fact, new managers cannot work magic. The short honeymoon after the new man takes over is easy to explain. Typically, the average club earns 1.3 points a match. Typically, Bridgewater found, a club sacks its manager when it averages only 1 point a match—that is, at a low point in the cycle.

"Any statistician can predict what should happen after a low point: whether or not the club sacks its manager, or changes its brand of teacakes, its performance will probably “regress to the mean” – or in ordinary language, return to normal. Simply put, from a low point you are always likely to improve. The club may have hit the low due to bad luck, or injuries, or a tough run of fixtures, or—as perhaps in Manchester City’s case in 2009—the time it takes for a largely new team to gel. Whatever the reason for hitting a low, things will almost inevitably improve afterward."

Soccernomics: Does sacking the manager actually make a difference?

Simon Kuper examines the data: to chop the head off the snake or not?

www.fourfourtwo.com

The point is, Moyes is a better manager than Dyche and has changed things to get better results. What you saw was not a "new manager bounce" but the outcome of putting someone who is actually significantly better at the job in charge. Guys like Irvine are also better than the coaching staff that was at the club under Dyche.

We may not be getting the results we have deserved, but that is due to the fact we cannot make the most of the more plentiful opportunities we are creating than due to the system itself.

Some people were moaning after a draw to Arsenal, a club who just crushed Real Madrid.

Oh dear. We won 3 of the first 4 games after he took over? Is that ‘a return to normal’ do you think? That’s a very interesting take. Wrong to a laughable extent, but interesting nonetheless.

 

[RomanReigns]

People also forget we’ve had two of our most creative players injured for months in McNeil and Ndiaye and our first choice striker also injured for months

It’s a miracle our form is not on par with Leicester and Southampton nevermind only losing once in the last 11 prem games

 

[JobForTheMoyes]

Oh dear. We won 3 of the first 4 games after he took over? Is that ‘a return to normal’ do you think? That’s a very interesting take. Wrong to a laughable extent, but interesting nonetheless.

Do you even watch the matches?

 

[Lanolin]

Do you even watch the matches?

Yes, do you read the posts?

 

[Infernus]

For the love of god David. Please stop being so negative and talking us down.

 

[Rob17896]

Talking about a new manager bounce isn't a criticism or a way of doing the manager down though, it's just a widely accepted term for the effect a new manager can have. James Garner referenced it in an interview somebody posted on here a couple of weeks ago, stating that he thought it was definitely a thing as far as players are concerned, and that he thought Moyes had had that effect. Moyes is a better manager than Dyche, I don't think i've seen anyone say differently to be honest. That doesn't mean he didn't have a bit of a bounce to begin with or that we should expect long unbeaten runs to become the norm with this group of players though.

A new manager means the players feel they are starting with a clean slate so you would expect an impact. Moyes has broadly kept that going so well done so far.

 

[GrandOldSte117]

Where was RVN’s new manager bounce? Pretty sure the data shows it doesn’t actually exist, and is much more variable.

It’s a myth that has led to a lot of hiring and firing for no good reason.

Because RVN is proper

 

[Saint Domingo]

I’m really not quite sure what argument you’re making here?

The concept of a new manager bounce relates to a short term upturn in results which isn’t sustained. The idea of one manager doing better than another in the long term is a totally different thing. In this case there is an argument that we’ve seen both - a bounce in initial games due to improved morale/players wanting to impress/a change of tactics catching teams by surprise and then once that has evened out you’re still getting better results than you were, but not by as much.

As I said earlier, one of our current players insisted it had happened here, it’s…interesting that you believe you know better.

For me it’s just different flavours of form from a bottom half squad. Dyche reeled off four wins in a row without conceding a goal, and then going five wins at home without conceding a goal including a derby win when the going was good. When it was bad it was no win in 15 or losing the first four this season. Those extremes are all in a 12
month stretch. Moyes has gone from winning 4 out of 5 to not winning in however many recently.

It’s just bottom half form. When the team is all fit, motivated, and confident for a manager they’re behind they can play well and get good results for short spells. When everything isn’t perfect and there’s a few injuries, tricky fixtures, lack of confidence, they can’t sustain it.

It’s the hallmarks of a poor squad of players. Call it a new manager bounce, whatever you like, it’s just inconsistency.

 

[Marc bolan]

Dyche last 13 games W 2 D 7 L 4 F7 A9
Moyes first 13 games W4 D6 L3 F18 A15

 

[Saint Domingo]

Dyche last 13 games W 2 D 7 L 4 F7 A9
Moyes first 13 games W4 D6 L3 F18 A15

To further support my point. Under the worst form of what some people have said is the worst manager they’ve ever lived through, it’s only 5 points different to the current form when everyone is made up again.

18 points from 13 games is also the finish Dyche produced last season.

This is the level of this squad. Sometimes they’re capable of a bit more, sometimes a bit less.

Until we buy much better players we’ll just keep getting different flavours of bottom half football.

 

[ChesterBlue]

For me it’s just different flavours of form from a bottom half squad. Dyche reeled off four wins in a row without conceding a goal, and then going five wins at home without conceding a goal including a derby win when the going was good. When it was bad it was no win in 15 or losing the first four this season. Those extremes are all in a 12
month stretch. Moyes has gone from winning 4 out of 5 to not winning in however many recently.

It’s just bottom half form. When the team is all fit, motivated, and confident for a manager they’re behind they can play well and get good results for short spells. When everything isn’t perfect and there’s a few injuries, tricky fixtures, lack of confidence, they can’t sustain it.

It’s the hallmarks of a poor squad of players. Call it a new manager bounce, whatever you like, it’s just inconsistency.

We’ve lost once in 11 games, and that was a 1-0 loss away at Anfield. Most of the games we’ve drawn recently we had big chances to win but didn’t take them. I don’t feel like this is comparable to Dyche (who 100% would have relegated us)

 

[brieverton]

We did get a bounce and have reverted back, not to the Dyche mean, but to somewhere befitting a team that is a distinct bottom half outfit but not bad enough to be in the bottom three.

I'm really glad we were spared a nail biting end to the season and have had a comfortable few months. It does not hide the reality though, that we are a poor, average side that has much work ahead to get to a place where we can be comfortably top half and not comfortable bottom half.

 

[Lanolin]

We’ve lost once in 11 games, and that was a 1-0 loss away at Anfield. Most of the games we’ve drawn recently we had big chances to win but didn’t take them. I don’t feel like this is comparable to Dyche (who 100% would have relegated us)

Again though, he's saying it is better than Dyche, but still not actually good. It's honestly quite bizarre that some people's hatred of Dyche seems to blind to such an extent that they can't actually read what posts say and instead see them as a vigorous defence of him.

 

[Gilbert..]

To further support my point. Under the worst form of what some people have said is the worst manager they’ve ever lived through, it’s only 5 points different to the current form when everyone is made up again.

18 points from 13 games is also the finish Dyche produced last season.

This is the level of this squad. Sometimes they’re capable of a bit more, sometimes a bit less.

Until we buy much better players we’ll just keep getting different flavours of bottom half football.

Only 5 points difference lol. Included in those 13 dyche games is a loss to Southampton. The worst premier team in history.
In those 13 games Moyes won more games away in 3 weeks than dyche did in 13 months. 7 goals in 13 games compared to 18. The whole approach and mood in those 13 games is chalk and cheese. And you're clinging on to your mate Sean like a drowning man to a lifebuoy.
"To further my point"
What? That you talk crap on Sean Dyche. Yeah you furthered that alright.
Kin idiot

 

[Lanolin]

Because RVN is proper

The worst thing is, he probably did get one. He picked up more points (4) and scored more goals (5) in his first 2 games than in the 16 games that have come after (3 and 4).