2019/20 Dominic Calvert-Lewin

[Sverre Takleifbotten]

Big chances missed per. 90 min:

View attachment 76273

Sorry for the graph. It should not be visualized in this way.

The point here was that I normalized the raw data "Big chances missed" and converted them to "Big chances missed per 90 min". So don't worry about the X-axis.

Either way, it shows that DCL has no higher miss ratio than other top strikers in the PL. Looking at goals vs. expected goals You also see that DCL is performing above expectations.

He misses some big chances, of course, but that's as expected - as is the case with all strikers.

 

[Fansince1988]

So we’re only counting goals in matches against top opposition that also play boss on the day now?

Tbh we have only just started really counting goals, he had his purple patch trying to impress Dunc and Ancelotti, before that his goal return was dreadful. By the law of averages he will will get a few if he keeps playing but so would Tosun or Niasse. We need better.

 

[MikeH72]

Tbh we have only just started really counting goals, he had his purple patch trying to impress Dunc and Ancelotti, before that his goal return was dreadful. By the law of averages he will will get a few if he keeps playing but so would Tosun or Niasse. We need better.

No

 

[Fansince1988]

If you want a striker with a high conversion rate you have to spend big,oh and be a regular CL team.

The spend big would probably do it, if we don’t we will be stuck outside the top 6 forever more. Tosun,Kean, Sigs combined is around 100 million, don’t tell me would couldn’t have got someone better in up front, oh and also the Lukaku money, board have let us down big style in replacing Lukaku.

 

[Fansince1988]

No

Whatever we need better than what we have, Kean needs time, imo DCL has had enough time to prove himself and imo hasn’t, Niasse will be on his way. The only one I currently have faith in is Richy and he ain’t really an out and out striker.

 

[trueblue84]

Sorry for the graph. It should not be visualized in this way.

The point here was that I normalized the raw data "Big chances missed" and converted them to "Big chances missed per 90 min". So don't worry about the X-axis.

Either way, it shows that DCL has no higher miss ratio than other top strikers in the PL. Looking at goals vs. expected goals You also see that DCL is performing above expectations.

He misses some big chances, of course, but that's as expected - as is the case with all strikers.

Don't you need another factor though? Number of chances?

He could have low stats because he doesn't have many chances.

 

[Sverre Takleifbotten]

Don't you need another factor though? Number of chances?

He could have low stats because he doesn't have many chances.

Yes, but here I was looking at the absolute numbers. I wanted to know how many big chances he misses per 90 min. If I want to know the relative numbers, I can look at expected goals to get an overview:

We can see that the patterns are changing, but again nothing indicates that DCL has a high miss ratio.

 

[blue1948]

Yes, but here I was looking at the absolute numbers. I wanted to know how many big chances he misses per 90 min. If I want to know the relative numbers, I can look at expected goals to get an overview:

View attachment 76293

We can see that the patterns are changing, but again nothing indicates that DCL has a high miss ratio.

Sadly you cannot evaluate like that ,you are like a politician only using the facts that you want to prove a point even if them said same facts are distorted by bias .
But at least it keeps you busy !

 

[Sverre Takleifbotten]

Sadly you cannot evaluate like that ,you are like a politician only using the facts that you want to prove a point even if them said same facts are distorted by bias .
But at least it keeps you busy !

What I am saying is that he does not miss a lot of big chances, and the statistics from expected goals show that he is performing better than expected. It is a model (like all statistics), not an exact imitation of reality, but it stands stronger than claims without any evidence.

 

[TimHowardsBeardJuice]

Yes, but here I was looking at the absolute numbers. I wanted to know how many big chances he misses per 90 min. If I want to know the relative numbers, I can look at expected goals to get an overview:

View attachment 76293

We can see that the patterns are changing, but again nothing indicates that DCL has a high miss ratio.

And as a guy who is among the least experienced in that graph, those absolute numbers aren't bad. He's not lighting the world on fire but he's ahead of guys with better pedigrees.

He's not a top striker yet, he has holes in his game, let's agree. He may not be the long-term answer at striker. Still it takes an act of willful blindness to look at his season and not admit that he's made significant strides in scoring goals.

 

[davids]

The spend big would probably do it, if we don’t we will be stuck outside the top 6 forever more. Tosun,Kean, Sigs combined is around 100 million, don’t tell me would couldn’t have got someone better in up front, oh and also the Lukaku money, board have let us down big style in replacing Lukaku.

Can't think of anyone since Lukaku left who we would expect 15+ from a season who has come available in anywhere near our price bracket and that's assuming they'd ply their trade in a lower mid-table side anyway if there had been one.If you can suggest someone I'd been interested to hear who.

 

[Fansince1988]

Can't think of anyone since Lukaku left who we would expect 15+ from a season who has come available in anywhere near our price bracket and that's assuming they'd ply their trade in a lower mid-table side anyway if there had been one.If you can suggest someone I'd been interested to hear who.

He’s older but I would like to have seen us go for the like of Dzeko or Manzukic both ageing now though perhaps they wouldn’t have come but, we could have thrown a lump of wedge there way, it would at least have got the thinking. We’ve wasted millions and million else where over the last few years.

 

[davids]

He’s older but I would like to have seen us go for the like of Dzeko or Manzukic both ageing now though perhaps they wouldn’t have come but, we could have thrown a lump of wedge there way, it would at least have got the thinking. We’ve wasted millions and million else where over the last few years.

Belive me I'm as frustrated as you,but if the press were to be believed Manzukic had his heart set on a last pay day in the Middle East rather than joining Man United and highly doubt Dzeko would be interested in leaving Roma in the EL for us.

 

[14towestham]

People talking about Sharpy/Sterling taking time to come good. The mind boggles. In almost all sportsman/women and animal athletes top class ability is almost always apparent early on in their careers.

Sharpy/Sterling both showed clear signs of class early in their career. They were inconsistent when young and gradually they became very consistent
and added strengths to their game.

DCL is inconsistent and he could add strengths to his game. BUT, he has rarely if ever shown any signs of premiership class.

 

[twoblue]

Tbh we have only just started really counting goals, he had his purple patch trying to impress Dunc and Ancelotti, before that his goal return was dreadful. By the law of averages he will will get a few if he keeps playing but so would Tosun or Niasse. We need better.

“Hi 20 goal a season striker, you fancy challenging for 8th with us next season”