2019/20 Dominic Calvert-Lewin

[hetion]

This is true but I think because DCL is quite an awkward mover when he fluffs a chance it looks horrible. I don’t remember Richarlison missing anything where I’ve thought ‘my god how’s he missed that?’.
I think also Richarlison scores much sexier goals though so any misses he makes get erased by the memory of his boss header from the edge of the box against or his dribbling from the halfway line and calmly slotting in the corner whereas Dom tends to score a lot of bundled in goals.
Goals are goals though and I’d take 20 scruffy goals over 19 worldies next season if it means we win more games so fingers crossed James and co. supply him!

Think this is really important too in terms of people's perceptions.

Richarlison scores MUCH sexier goals. Difficult finishes from tough scoring positions. Which is great. DCL gets much much more into really high-likelihood scoring positions, which are by definition a lot less sexy, and also look more stupid when he inevitably misses some! They're both totally different skillsets though and it's ridiculously great that we have both. You don't get both skillsets in one player unless it's a Lewandowski.

 

[Nymzee]

As if he'd say "Yeah that DCL is an absolute dead-leg but that's all I've got"

But he also didn''t need to say anything at all.

 

[Anti]

I'm surprised he still splits opinions this much, Having young player with potential who gradually improves on every season is what fans love to see.

 

[Nymzee]

He missed a lot of sitters last season and I think that’s something that a lot of people struggle to get past.
He gets in a lot of really good positions and gets on the end of things far better than he used to but he missed a lot of big chances last year.
Writing him off is mad though at his age, plenty of top strikers don’t become top strikers until they’re 26+ and most tend to peak in their late 20s.
There’s no guarantee DCL becomes a better finisher but if he did he’s already got all the other things to be a top number 9.

Missed less big chances last season than Vardy, Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, Firmino, Mane & Abraham.

 

[blueblue]

DCL is a striker that is a mid to lower prem player at best. We have a top 4 manager , a decent chairman that is willing to back him . We just signed one of the most high profile players in the world and have a limited time to try and break into the next level ( top 6/ Europa ) we won’t get anywhere with DCL as first choice. Every team above us or that is in top 6-7 has a ruthless striker that scores goals ... DCL will never be that and so if we can’t afford one I would rather buy another striker with potential and give them ago

Everybody is entitled to their opinion but I think you are wrong.
The majority of players reach their peak aged 27-29 and DCL has four or five years improving before he is at his best and we have clearly seen improvement every year from him so far.

I think he is a managers player rather than a fans player. The manager appreciates everything a player like DCL brings to the team in addition to goals where the fan often has a more limited perspective.

 

[Lanolin]

Scored same amount of goals in less time, DCL's shots were much more likely to be in better scoring positions than Richarlison's, *and* he had a higher conversion rate

This is where stats in football fall down though, because the 'better position' is subjective. Just because most players would be more likely to score from one position, it doesn't mean all would. There are some players who you see shaping to shoot in a certain position and think 'let him', there are others who you just know are going to bend it in the top corner. Stats don't know that. Aerial duel rates only show how many headers you won when challenging, not how many you won by finding space to win it unchallenged, not what happened to the header, not who you were challenging for the ball, not your respective starting positions and whether you were ever likely to win the header, not even whether you were trying to win the header or just make life difficult for the defender. Stats can be useful to a point, but when comparing players in the way you are they don't really do what you're suggesting.

 

[hetion]

Better shots based on his goals ? One was kicked into him by a gk , one was a tackle , one was basically over the line from Coleman’s chip and his open goal against Newcastle he missed the ball with his foot and luckily his momentum meant the ball rolled from the underside of his leg and went in niasse style. I wouldn’t call any of them shots to be honest. Richy scores some very good finishes , and scored a couple of cracking headers .. his quality of his finishing is one of his strongest qualities while for DCL it’s by far his weakest

You're talking about finishing, I'm talking about getting into high quality positions to take shots. They're both equally important and DCL is really really good at the latter. Either you disagree that they're equally important or you disagree that he's really good at it, and I cannot understand how you can watch football and disagree with either

 

[Nymzee]

Doucoure in his interview said, at 27, he's heading into his peak years.

Rodriguez in his presser said, at 29, he's in his peak years.

Why isn't Dom allowed the chance to improve? He's 23 not 33.

 

[Joey66]

Better shots based on his goals ? One was kicked into him by a gk , one was a tackle , one was basically over the line from Coleman’s chip and his open goal against Newcastle he missed the ball with his foot and luckily his momentum meant the ball rolled from the underside of his leg and went in niasse style. I wouldn’t call any of them shots to be honest. Richy scores some very good finishes , and scored a couple of cracking headers .. his quality of his finishing is one of his strongest qualities while for DCL it’s by far his weakest

I don't care if they come off his arsp a goal is a goal ........yes he misses the odd chance but really in a good team he would score quite a lot more than 15.... most improved player at the club imo....

 

[hetion]

This is where stats in football fall down though, because the 'better position' is subjective. Just because most players would be more likely to score from one position, it doesn't mean all would. There are some players who you see shaping to shoot in a certain position and think 'let him', there are others who you just know are going to bend it in the top corner. Stats don't know that. Aerial duel rates only show how many headers you won when challenging, not how many you won by finding space to win it unchallenged, not what happened to the header, not who you were challenging for the ball, not your respective starting positions and whether you were ever likely to win the header, not even whether you were trying to win the header or just make life difficult for the defender. Stats can be useful to a point, but when comparing players in the way you are they don't really do what you're suggesting.

Disagree and think stats specifically *do* know that - by definition they know every shot a player has ever taken and what happened with that shot. You can see patterns in where a player scores more than average or less than average. There's lots of bad stats out there tho and context as you say is so, so important - always got the feeling that Steve Walsh used stats terribly, looking for example just at how many goals Sandro scored and not how he scored them etc.

On the aerial duel thing, you might find this article interesting, specifically talks about what happens after a duel and how to contextualise different players going up against each other: https://smarterscout.com/articles/p...-lewin-richarlison-firmino-pogba-aerial-skill

 

[ProZ]

Anyone who is comparing him to Richarlison in terms of stats is short sighted, Richarlison plays different positions and takes shots from everywhere so therefore will have differing shot percentages.

DCL is only shooting and missing his from the 6 yard box, god forbid he try’s a shot from outside the box, some poor grandma coming out of home bargains on county road with her essentials would have the wig knocked clean off her barnet by a stray ball.

 

[Lanolin]

Disagree and think stats specifically *do* know that - by definition they know every shot a player has ever taken and what happened with that shot. You can see patterns in where a player scores more than average or less than average. There's lots of bad stats out there tho and context as you say is so, so important - always got the feeling that Steve Walsh used stats terribly, looking for example just at how many goals Sandro scored and not how he scored them etc.

On the aerial duel thing, you might find this article interesting, specifically talks about what happens after a duel and how to contextualise different players going up against each other: https://smarterscout.com/articles/p...-lewin-richarlison-firmino-pogba-aerial-skill

Yes I understand that, the point was that you aren't adding that context. You're using words like 'better' but you can't say that, because you're not presenting any evidence that it's 'better'. You can say 'DCL gets into positions which statistically speaking should lead to more goals being scored' but you can't say 'he takes better shots' because that's entirely subjective. I'll never believe stats in football can know these things because they can't allow for context. Situations are never identical, yet stats have to be presented as if they are. They can map where shots were taken from but they can't legislate for pressure, the state of the pitch, how good the keeper is, how tired you were when it happened etc. You can watch a player take a shot and think 'ah it bobbled' or 'i bet he wouldn't have tried to rabona it if it was 0-0 not 9-0' but the type of stats you're talking about just say 'big chance'. I'm aware that clubs can delve deeper into these things but we're not doing that here, we're talking about basic stats as if they're facts, when they're not.

 

[hetion]

Anyone who is comparing him to Richarlison in terms of stats is short sighted, Richarlison plays different positions and takes shots from everywhere so therefore will have differing shot percentages.

DCL is only shooting and missing his from the 6 yard box, god forbid he try’s a shot from outside the box, some poor grandma coming out of home bargains on county road with her essentials would have the wig knocked clean off her barnet by a stray ball.

...the entire point is that these are different and equally useful skillsets

 

[hetion]

Yes I understand that, the point was that you aren't adding that context. You're using words like 'better' but you can't say that, because you're not presenting any evidence that it's 'better'. You can say 'DCL gets into positions which statistically speaking should lead to more goal being scored' but you can't say 'he takes better shots' because that's entirely subjective. I'll never believe stats in football can know these things because they can't allow for context. Situations are never identical, yet stats have to be presented as if they are. They can map where shots were taken from but they can't legislate for pressure, the state of the pitch, how good the keeper is, how tired you were when it happened etc. You can watch a player take a shot and think 'ah it bobbled' or 'i bet he wouldn't have tried to rabona it if it was 0-0 not 9-0' but the type of stats you're talking about just say 'big chance'. I'm aware that clubs can delve deeper into these things but we're not doing that here, we're talking about basic stats as if they're facts, when they're not.

You're right imo! But also worth noting that stats on the best end of what's publicly available actually are taking into account things like pressure (specifically what's available on fbref, which is provided by StatsBomb who do the stats for various Prem and CL clubs).

Going off just 'key passes' or 'big chance' off WhoScored or whatever isn't going to give you much I agree. But there's some really, really detailed high-end stuff out there

At the end of the day 'stats' just means 'what happened'.

 

[MACCA75]

Missed less big chances last season than Vardy, Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, Firmino, Mane & Abraham.

They are all way better players though. Probably even Abraham.