Donald Trump for President Thread

[SNova]

Yes and if you don't believe so you either aren't paying attention or have a warped set of standards.

Every country and people has had slaves.

 

[VentureBrosEFC]

Every country and people has had slaves.

Hah that's old (not to make light of it). Try Obama's use of the Espionage Act or the fact that we don't even know how many people or who they are that we kill during drone attacks. Or we could move on to debt repackaging loop holes and sales (especially in the automotive industry) or all the for profit colleges that are allowed to prey on the undereducated poor population. Could go on for a while but that's enough to digest for now. You really need to wake up if you feel like our corruption is par for the course. It's not as readily apparent as in some countries but it's hidden nature makes it even more insidious.

 

[SNova]

If polls are useless why has Trump hired a pollster as one of his two campaign managers?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kellyanne_Conway

And why does he avidly follow polls numbers, regularly tweet about public polls and even use some of his precious campaign money to run internal polls if they are useless?

They are marketing tools for political campaigns. I was referring to the last general election and Brexit.

Hah that's old (not to make light of it). Try Obama's use of the Espionage Act or the fact that we don't even know how many people or who they are that we kill during drone attacks. Or we could move on to debt repackaging loop holes and sales (especially in the automotive industry) or all the for profit colleges that are allowed to prey on the undereducated poor population. You really need to wake up if you feel like our corruption is par for the course. It's not as readily apparent as in some countries but it's hidden nature makes it even more insidious.

I have no problem with anyone criticising these policies. I only object to the 'white guilt' narrative.

 

[VentureBrosEFC]

I have no problem with anyone criticising these policies. I only object to the 'white guilt' narrative

My ancestor (greatx2 grandfather) on my father's side fought for the Union (only a year after coming over from York) and marched with Sherman and my mother's parents came over from Germany just before the great depression so I don't let anyone guilt me just because of my skin color

 

[ilikecheese]

I have no problem with anyone criticising these policies. I only object to the 'white guilt' narrative.

What white guilt narrative?

 

[SNova]

It's estimated that 341 people die in America each year by falling and then drowning in the bath. That in itself is a higher number than are killed by Islamic terrorists in the US, yet if we used Trump's logic we would never have a bath ever again, and quite probably ban people from ever having a bath just to be on the safe side. There are over 3 million Muslims living in America, the mere suggestion that we don't know who is normal person and who is a terrorist is frankly absurd and suggests that the FBI/CIA et al are utter idiots. The persecution of a solitary religious group has very nasty precedents that I can't believe a country with heritage steeped in providing a haven from persecution is even considering it.

The sad thing about this whole 'movement' is that globalization massively benefits western countries. Not only is this debate largely done in terms of polemic arguments of it being either good or awful, but it nearly always focuses purely on how much people earn, not on what they can spend their money on.

On the first point, I've said several times that yes, much more can and should be done to help people to retrain if their jobs are lost, but Trump doesn't seem to be doing that. That should be a huge worry to you if this is really your concern, because automation is quite probably going to make globalization seem like a cakewalk in terms of impact on jobs. Is he going to personally go around smashing up looms? Is he going to ban driverless cars because they will make drivers redundant? Ford predict that driverless cars will be on the road during his term of office, so you'd think it'd be a pertinent question, yet there isn't a squeek from him on it. I wonder why that is?

On the second point, not only does globalization make much of what we buy cheaper, it also gives us the kind of choices that are scarecely believable even a generation ago. My other half grew up in a self-contained economy (aka communism), and it's hardly a bed of roses.

The bath comparison is a complete fallacy. I really don't see the problem with banning people from entering a country as a precaution, apart from hurting people's feelings. The security services are not coping with the current numbers of potential Terrorists, just look at France, Belgium and Germany. Adding to the numbers is not going to help.

I'm fine with free trade. That's not what I object in regards to globalism. It's the attempt to create a John Lennon 'Imagine' dream world which I object.

Automation is a concern because although it will create many high skilled jobs it will drastically affect the low skilled individuals in our societies. I don't know the answer to helping these people in the future, but it certainly isn't to allow companies to under cut them and use cheap foreign labour to increase their profits.

----
Education would be how I'd tackle it. Try to give people the skills they need.

I would start by reintroducing grammar schools which would allow the brightest kids from lower class backgrounds to have a higher education and allow them to have greater social mobility and job prospects. And I would perhaps look into the German education system of technical schools for the more practical and less academic individuals.

What white guilt narrative?

The narrative that suggests white people should feel guilty about the past.

 

[LinekersLegs]

They are marketing tools for political campaigns. I was referring to the last general election and Brexit.

What do you mean by marketing tools?

Do you mean that they identify areas (issues/demographics/geographies) that a candidate is weak/strong in and can then balance resouces and fine tune messages? Or are you meaning that they can be used in a "hey look we're winning/losing please help our campaign" to sell the candidate?

Does your phrase "polls are useless" just apply to what you believe their predictive power is?

 

[SNova]

What do you mean by marketing tools?

Do you mean that they identify areas (issues/demographics/geographies) that a candidate is weak/strong in and can then balance resouces? Or are you meaning that they can be used in a "hey look we're winning/losing please help our campaign"

Does your phrase "polls are useless" just apply to what you believe their predictive power is?

There is a name for it, but I cannot remember. However it's the group psychology of not wanting to be the odd one out. So when Trump brags about a poll it's to invoke that response in people.

Yeah I think their predictive power is getting worse not better. Perhaps it is because of the political climate of political correctness that skews the results, I'm referring to the shy Conservative. No doubt Trump will have shy voters. Or perhaps it's just because politics is changing rapidly and it's harder to predict.

 

[ilikecheese]

The narrative that suggests white people should feel guilty about the past.

Oh...I know what it is, but I don't see where that narrative is being played out with regards to the election in America.

 

[SNova]

Oh...I know what it is, but I don't see where that narrative is being played out with regards to the election in America.

I presumed that @VentureBrosEFC was talking about it.

 

[dandydan]

The scenes when president trump hires Nigel Farage as his advisor on all things EU.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I would start by reintroducing grammar schools which would allow the brightest kids from lower class backgrounds to have a higher education and allow them to have greater social mobility and job prospects. And I would perhaps look into the German education system of technical schools for the more practical and less academic individuals.

Trump hasn't mentioned anything of that sort though, just as no one from the Brexit camp or any of the other groups leaning that way have. For the record, I think a huge issue is the idea that education only happens between 5-16/18.

It's widely estimated, for instance, that the millennial generation will have 4-5 different careers in their working life due to the rapidly changing world we live in. That means education and learning has to be a lifelong endeavour.

 

[LinekersLegs]

There is a name for it, but I cannot remember. However it's the group psychology of not wanting to be the odd one out. So when Trump brags about a poll it's to invoke that response in people.

Yeah I think their predictive power is getting worse not better. Perhaps it is because of the political climate of political correctness that skews the results, I'm referring to the shy Conservative. No doubt Trump will have shy voters. Or perhaps it's just because politics is changing rapidly and it's harder to predict.

Candidates, and Trump in particular, do use polls to foster the sense of being part of a group and on the winning side.

But that wouldn't explain why he spends money on internal polls the results of which are never released - he and his campaign have to believe they serve some other function otherwise they would just rely on public polls that are paid for by other people, and just brag about the ones they like. Indeed that was his strategy up until May
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/donald-trump-pollster-223251

There is probably a "shy voter" effect. But how large it is and whether it is counterbalanced by other known issues in polling such as difficulty in getting responses from young voters on their cellphones or polling Spanish language speakers (both of whom skew left) I guess we'll see.

 

[SNova]

Trump hasn't mentioned anything of that sort though, just as no one from the Brexit camp or any of the other groups leaning that way have. For the record, I think a huge issue is the idea that education only happens between 5-16/18.

It's widely estimated, for instance, that the millennial generation will have 4-5 different careers in their working life due to the rapidly changing world we live in. That means education and learning has to be a lifelong endeavour.

Because that rhetoric will not get people to vote for you. Yeah good point, it should be looked into.

Candidates, and Trump in particular, do use polls to foster the sense of being part of a group and on the winning side.

But that wouldn't explain why he spends money on internal polls the results of which are never released - he and his campaign have to believe they serve some other function otherwise they would just rely on public polls that are paid for by other people, and just brag about the ones they like. Indeed that was his strategy up until May
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/donald-trump-pollster-223251

There is probably a "shy voter" effect. But how large it is and whether it is counterbalanced by other known issues in polling such as difficulty in getting responses from young voters on their cellphones or polling Spanish language speakers (both of whom skew left) I guess we'll see.

I don't know mate, I just don't have much faith in them any longer; after the general election and Brexit. Having said that private polling may be more reliable. Arron Banks conducted a private poll the day of the referendum and he got the correct predictions.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Because that rhetoric will not get people to vote for you. Yeah good point, it should be looked into.



I don't know mate, I just don't have much faith in them any longer; after the general election and Brexit. Having said that private polling may be more reliable. Arron Banks conducted a private poll the day of the referendum and he got the correct predictions.

From what I have read UK polling seems a bit harder than US polling - the views in the US generally seem to be more polarised and the sheer numbers of people mean that things like "shy voters" have to be a significant factor to move the needle one way or the other.

The added wrinkle though is the electoral college, in reality it doesn't matter what a voter in California or Texas tells a pollster as those states are currently locked in for a certain party - however if the polling in the swing states is off then that can dramatically effect the accuracy of the result.