AmericanSchoolOfScience
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Deffo agreed there, 538 is the best tho, imo. 3 different models combining all different sorts of data with a relatively unbiased viewpoint.
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Donald Trump for President Thread
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Deffo agreed there, 538 is the best tho, imo. 3 different models combining all different sorts of data with a relatively unbiased viewpoint.
Oversampling is a scientific term and isn't done to skew the results, it is done to improve model accuracy of hard to measure subgroups.People still trust polls?
http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/sampling/
Not everything is a vast conpiracy Dan.
Don't belive the map isn't off so much as they are being cautious with it, anything less than 5% is marked as a tossup. Given current info would agree with you on 4 out of the 5, Iowa not so sure about particularly as early ballot returns are down but guess we'll see.
MartyMcFly
Player Valuation: £15m
Not everything is a vast conspiracy but don't discount the media and pollsters are lying either. After all we have already seen plenty of evidence of this dirty tricks campaign by them.
http://metro.co.uk/2016/10/24/donal...-best-record-of-predicting-elections-6211059/
Look at how the global establishment has reacted to Brexit. This would be the US fighting back against them. They will do anything to stop it.
http://metro.co.uk/2016/10/24/donal...-best-record-of-predicting-elections-6211059/
Look at how the global establishment has reacted to Brexit. This would be the US fighting back against them. They will do anything to stop it.
joey_macmo
Player Valuation: £35m
Don't believe the polls they could be lying.
Apart from the polls that have Trump leading, they're definitely telling the truth.
More top trolling from Adversus
Ashtonian
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you trying to claim marty as a multi then?Don't believe the polls they could be lying.
Apart from the polls that have Trump leading, they're definitely telling the truth.
More top trolling from Adversus
big call if you are, and can hold it as a badge of honour if you are right
MartyMcFly
Player Valuation: £15m
I'm not saying you should believe either. Again you have misrepresented what I say. Why do you continue to do that?Don't believe the polls they could be lying.
Apart from the polls that have Trump leading, they're definitely telling the truth.
More top trolling from Adversus
The only poll that actually matters is the election. Same with Brexit.
I'd be really surprised to see Trump win MN but then again they voted in Jesse Ventura as Governor
NOTHING TO SEE HERE, IT’S OLD NEWS, TIME TO MOVE ON:
Clinton Ally Aided Campaign of FBI Official’s Wife.
The political organization of Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, an influential Democrat with longstanding ties to Bill and Hillary Clinton, gave nearly $500,000 to the election campaign of the wife of an official at the Federal Bureau of Investigation who later helped oversee the investigation into Mrs. Clinton’s email use.
Campaign finance records show Mr. McAuliffe’s political-action committee donated $467,500 to the 2015 state Senate campaign of Dr. Jill McCabe, who is married to Andrew McCabe, now the deputy director of the FBI.
The Virginia Democratic Party, over which Mr. McAuliffe exerts considerable control, donated an additional $207,788 worth of support to Dr. McCabe’s campaign in the form of mailers, according to the records. That adds up to slightly more than $675,000 to her candidacy from entities either directly under Mr. McAuliffe’s control or strongly influenced by him. The figure represents more than a third of all the campaign funds Dr. McCabe raised in the effort.
McAuliffe approached McCabe to run on March 7, 2015. The New York Times broke the Clinton email story on March 2.
Follow the money. Trace through the cutouts.
Clinton Ally Aided Campaign of FBI Official’s Wife.
The political organization of Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, an influential Democrat with longstanding ties to Bill and Hillary Clinton, gave nearly $500,000 to the election campaign of the wife of an official at the Federal Bureau of Investigation who later helped oversee the investigation into Mrs. Clinton’s email use.
Campaign finance records show Mr. McAuliffe’s political-action committee donated $467,500 to the 2015 state Senate campaign of Dr. Jill McCabe, who is married to Andrew McCabe, now the deputy director of the FBI.
The Virginia Democratic Party, over which Mr. McAuliffe exerts considerable control, donated an additional $207,788 worth of support to Dr. McCabe’s campaign in the form of mailers, according to the records. That adds up to slightly more than $675,000 to her candidacy from entities either directly under Mr. McAuliffe’s control or strongly influenced by him. The figure represents more than a third of all the campaign funds Dr. McCabe raised in the effort.
McAuliffe approached McCabe to run on March 7, 2015. The New York Times broke the Clinton email story on March 2.
Follow the money. Trace through the cutouts.
Republican pollster Frank Luntz
And even if you want to still cherry pick that poll, Trump lost 2 points in it over the weekend - now showing a tie.
http://www.investors.com/politics/t...ace-hits-final-two-week-stretch-ibdtipp-poll/
With the presidential election set to enter its final two weeks, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump find themselves in a near dead heat at 41% each in a four-way race, the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll shows.
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson edged up to 8% from 7%, while the Green Party's Jill Stein rebounded to 4% from 3%.
Without rounding, Trump stands at 41.1%, 0.1 percentage point behind Clinton's 41.2%. Johnson stands at 7.7%, unrounded, while Stein is at 3.7%.
MartyMcFly
Player Valuation: £15m
"Less than a month ago" means nothing. Less than a month ago Trump was tied with Clinton in pretty much every national poll.
Besides I don't know why you care. You think Clinton is going to win by a landslide. I think it will be closer but I think she is going to win.
However that's not the point. The election will decide it and up to then people should be focused on policy.
Ultimately having a wide lead will only play into Trump's hands because his supporters are passionate. Hillary's aren't. That is what we can both agree on and if it is closer then turnout will be what decides the election.
'...there's only one poll that matters', that usually trumps (no pune intended) all these types of discussions. I do think he's blown it though but not by as much as they say
MartyMcFly
Player Valuation: £15m
The first debate was a disaster and the video finished him off. Now he's coming back strong with his "drain the swamp" pledge and his Gettysburg speech outlining his first 100 days but I suspect he's already too much damaged good.
Anyone of half decent character would have won in a landslide. It's a shame someone like Peter Thiel didn't run instead.
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I care because you keep on trotting out comments like "don't discount that pollsters are lying".
Pollsters are human and can get assumptions/models wrong or bad data can skew a result. However to think that almost all are deliberately lying when their reputations and very livelihoods depend on them being accurate as possible is tin foil hat stuff tbh.
Fwiw I think that Hillary supporters have become more passionate as the election draws closer but in any case a reluctant vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic one!
You know this how??
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