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The walking contradiction that is Roberto Martinez via GrandOldTeam

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When you’re in a situation, you don’t have time to think. So I thought to myself, “Don’t think”.

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A little over 12 months ago, I wrote an article in a state of confusion (as is often the case when writing about Everton), trying to figure out what exactly was the plan for Roberto Martinez’s side. Where were we going? How long would it take for the Martinez philosophy to shine through? I bemoaned the absence of Osman and Pienaar, entreating Roberto to sign a similar type to fill the gaping hole of our left hand side with a new injection of creativity. Since then we’ve had Naismith, Kone, and now Cleverley. Naismith and Kone in particular weren’t exactly, let’s say, enjoyed by the fans during their respective stints in the wide left berth, but you can see the logic in their inclusion. Both intelligent players, both good at finding space and receiving the ball with their back to goal – qualities we were lacking elsewhere on the pitch at the time. Both also, though, with obvious weaknesses: Naismith’s propensity to give the ball away under little pressure; Kone’s distinct lack of mobility. Nor were either capable defensively, as you might expect from strikers playing out wide. They were stop gap solutions for a long-term problem, not the answer. (As an aside here, I think you have to give credit to Martinez for finding a way to score goals with this team – it could very easily have become impotent, even allowing for his gung-ho style)

So in comes Tom Cleverley, the all-rounder, the Manchester United-schooled pass-turn-pass master of the simple. A decent player, no doubt, and one who made an immediate difference with his capacity for teamwork and genuine link play, along with – who knew – pinpoint accurate diagonal balls and a strange corner-taking technique that seems to work well on occasion. But he’s not Steven Pienaar. He doesn’t provide inspiration, or ideas. He doesn’t force opponents to stand off him, knowing that if they don’t he’ll spin them and open up the game. He doesn’t feebly collapse from an arm in the back to win freekicks. We don’t have anyone like Pienaar in the squad – Roberto said so himself. Yet now he’s fit he can’t get in the side. Maybe it’s just age, maybe it’s a new direction for the team. Maybe the plan’s always been to eventually have three out-and-out forwards and Niasse will be the one on the left. Or maybe Cleverley’s there to stay and we’ve just been unlucky in three quarters of our games this season.

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Watching us play West Brom away earlier in the season – the first game Stones was out injured – I remember thinking we’d do well to get through the next few games without completely crumbling, and I was fearing the worst at two-nil down. We had no set way of playing whatsoever; Jagielka and Funes Mori would get the ball and spoon it upfield to no one in particular and wait for it to come back. We were being dominated by West Brom. Then Rom rolled in with support from Kone and Deulofeu and we won the game. It was reminiscent of Martinez’s first season: no one really seems to know what’s going on but somehow we’ve scored some goals and won the game. Since then we’ve seem some excellent away performances, sans Stones, and kept a few clean sheets to boot. But then we had some excellent away performances last season too, with Stones playing a vital part. What we haven’t had though are the away-style counter-attack games at home. Whether that’s a deliberate change of tactics on our part or simply opposition sides coming to Goodison and letting us have the ball is difficult to say with any certainty, but I’d lean towards the latter. Swansea, Leicester, West Brom – all have set up to allow us to have possession, confident in the expectation that we’ll give it away and concede chances. That’s the problem with having a side built to play on the counter try to play possession: the players don’t know what to do when they can’t just run forwards. Pienaar knew what to do, so did Osman, but they’re not in the side. Stones is made to look even worse than his admittedly poor performances suggest, so he’s out too.

In short, we’re no nearer knowing exactly what sort of team Martinez is trying to create. He says he wants possession and control, but selects players that aren’t good in possession and relieves them of positional responsibility. He says he wants to play on the front foot, yet we don’t press until the opposition get to the halfway line. Managers saying one thing and doing another is nothing new, far from it, but I don’t think I’ve come across one that’s quite so mystifyingly contradictory as Roberto. He’s supposed to have an identity, a philosophy, a set of values from which he never wavers. A clear, definite style of play is the aim, married with a tactical flexibility that allows you to change your approach mid-game. Right now I’d struggle to tell you what our style of play is, and most of the times we’ve made a tactical change during a game it’s been for the worse. Against Arsenal most recently, we looked clueless, ending the game with no recognisable structure at all. The players look lost.

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If I could look into a crystal ball and see the progress we’d make in the next three years, with Roberto proudly leading the best possession-football side in the league to glory in 2019, of course I’d happily suffer in the short term for the long term gain. But the signs just aren’t there. We look like a side in need of an overhaul, when we’re supposed to be on the cusp of greatness. Even with the prospect of investment and a cup semi on the horizon, the mood amongst the fans is subdued. We just don’t know what to make of it. There’s no conviction, no direction; nothing, really, to get behind. It could be that that’s a symptom of modern football – apathy seems to be quite normal for much of the Premier League – but when you see other clubs making history, with fans fully immersed in the adventure, it’s harder to accept the flat-line dullness of mediocrity.

What we need, more than anything, is some fire. A booming voice to unite the club, with a message of where we are going, and how we’re going to get there. Some real leadership. Has Roberto got that in him? If he hasn’t, we could be in for a big summer.

The post The walking contradiction that is Roberto Martinez appeared first on GrandOldTeam.

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What’s with Everton’s home form? via Royal Blue Mersey

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Another lackluster home performance raises questions about whether or not Goodison is having a negative effect on the side this year

This weekend Everton failed to win at Goodison Park for the eighth time in nine league matches. When asked about his side's home form, manager Roberto Martinez had this to say:


"Clearly the psychological aspect of going into a game is not right at the moment. We feel we can let our fans down, that we’ve got something to lose…the doubts, the communication is not what it should be. And that’s something that’s affecting our scorelines."

Watching the game on Saturday, one would tend to agree with Martinez's assessment. The team looked totally disjointed, with fingers being pointed and nervy moments aplenty. The pressing was sporadic and disorganized, the passing lacked ambition, and the defending was desperate.

Without a doubt, the home results are a cause for concern. At the moment, Everton are tied for second-fewest points accumulated at home, and they have conceded more goals at home than any other team in the division. Over the last 15 Premier League seasons, 25 sides have had an equal or worse home record than Everton's current clip; 19 were relegated. None finished higher than 14th.

Where has it gone wrong for the Toffees at Goodison? Looking very quickly at the table, we see that scoring at home has generally not been an issue. Rather, it's the defense that has been especially susceptible to conceding (1.75 goals against per game at home versus 1.00 away).

Looking a bit more closely, one thing that jumped out at me was Everton's defensive record away from home in the first half of games:

Home Away
First half goals against 0.94 0.31
Second half goals against 0.81 0.69

(data is per game for league matches)

They appear to be doing a better job in away matches at tightening up out of the gates. Whether that's by luck or by design is unclear to me, but most teams tend to take a more conservative approach on the road and perhaps in the case of Everton it's actually worked this season. It also lends itself to the narrative that away from home they've been more able to grow into games. On the flip side, conceding a goal in the first half of every game you play in front of your own supporters cannot be good for the nerves. Nothing turns an atmosphere toxic like an early goal for the away team–Danny Welbeck's 7th minute tally on Saturday of course being the freshest example in the memory.

With that being said, goals often do not tell the story of the performance, and indeed there is an alternative account to be spun here:

Home Away
Shots for 15.3 12.0
Shots against 11.9 14.9
Total shots ratio (TSR) 0.562 0.446
Shots on target for 4.9 4.4
Shots on target against 4.7 4.6
Shots on target ratio (SOTR) 0.513 0.487
Expected goals for 1.34 1.37
Expected goals against 1.11 1.25
Expected goal ratio 0.547 0.522

(data is per game for league matches; expected goals are according to Michael Caley's model)

On first impression, the "Everton are crap at Goodison" narrative doesn't hold sway. Looking at these numbers alone, you'd probably say that this is a half decent side. Sure, they could stand to concede fewer shots, but the attacking output is good enough to cover for it.

Simple possession and passing metrics tell roughly the same story as the shot numbers:

Home Away
Possession 55.3% 48.3%
Pass ratio 0.555 0.485
Game time spent in attacking third 30% 25%

(data is per game for league matches)

On average, Everton are shooting more, conceding fewer shots, creating roughly the same quality of chances, conceding fewer quality chances, possessing the ball more, passing the ball more, and spending more time in the opponent's end of the pitch when they are at Goodison compared to when they are on the road. Yet according to the table, the Toffees are a relegation-caliber team at home.

So what gives? Recall what I noted above, that conceding goals rather than scoring them was the main difference between Everton's home and away form in the league table. But if shots conceded and expected goals conceded still favor the home column, then something else must be going on.

This is where save percentage enters the conversation. As a reminder, extreme save and shooting percentages usually indicate that a team is strongly affected by luck.*

Home Away League average
Shooting percentage 36.7% 38.6% 31.1%
Save percentage 62.7% 78.3% 68.9%
PDO 994 1169 1000

16 percentage points is an enormous swing, in this case potentially enough to take a top 10 TSR team at home and effectively turn them into Sunderland. Indeed only Liverpool have a more drastic home/away PDO differential–one wonders if there's something in the Merseyside water that's causing the hometown heroes to be so unlucky.

Before you run away with that storyline though, remember that Everton are still at an almost league average PDO at home, as their high shooting percentage offsets the low save percentage. So on the macro level it appears that overall Everton aren't unlucky at home, it's just that their positive skews away from home make it seem like they're a better team than they are. But given their shot numbers, I'd argue that their low save percentage is hurting them more than their high shooting percentage is helping them at this point. They already concede a lot of shots on target; to have them be hitting the back of the net at one of the highest rates in the league is devastating.

In short, Everton haven't been that terrible at home this season. I wouldn't go so far as to call it a "one-off" but in truth prior to Saturday Everton hadn't been so badly outplayed at home in the league since perhaps the Manchester United game way back in October. We also shouldn't forget that the Toffees have 4 wins out of 4 in cup ties at Goodison this season. If the manager does get the sack this summer, it shouldn't be because the team isn't good enough at home, but because they're not good enough…in general.

With that being said, getting bad results at Goodison is becoming a bit of a habit for Martinez. Everton's 28 home points last year was their worst in nine seasons. Even if it is being swayed by factors that are perhaps out of the manager's control, and even if home field advantage isn't really a thing anymore in the Premier League, poor home form is always a tough pill to swallow for the supporters who pay their hard-earned money to come to the ground. While Martinez might feel justified in asking for patience, it's little surprise that many fans are losing theirs.

*In addition to the James Grayson link, this is probably the simplest explanation I've read of why shooting percentage, save percentage, and PDO is useful.


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Everton get short notice on FA Cup opponent via Royal Blue Mersey

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Blues will discover their semi-final opponent a mere 10 days before the match at Wembley

Everton will be facing either West Ham United or Manchester United in their upcoming FA Cup semi-final at Wembley Stadium. However, they will not find out which team they are facing until ten days before the match. The FA has decided to schedule the quarter-final replay at Upton Park on Wednesday, April 13th as to avoid any conflicts with UEFA Champions League football.

The FA has admitted that the date may not be ideal for all parties involved, but stood by their decision nonetheless.


The FA recognizes the agreed date may not be an ideal solution for all, but believed it was the most appropriate available within the congested football calendar

According to the Liverpool Echo the possibility of fines from UEFA may have been a determining factor in scheduling the replay.

Regardless of when Roberto Martinez and company find out who their opponent is, they will have a tough task ahead of them. West Ham and Manchester United both sit at fifth and sixth respectively in the table and have proven to be difficult opponents.

How do you feel about the date of the quarter-final replay? Have Everton been given enough notice of who their opponent will be? Have your say in the comment section.


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UPDATE: Lukaku to remain with Belgium after game swtiched via Royal Blue Mersey

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Everton have confirmed that Romelu Lukaku is to remain with the Belgium squad after their game against Portugal was switched to an away fixture.

The Red Devils were due to play Portugal at the King Baudouin Stadium Brussels on Tuesday but that will now not take place following terror attacks in the city that killed 31 people and injured hundreds more.

The Belgium FA released a statement on Wednesday saying the game was off, before later confirming that the game will now instead go ahead in Portugal following talks with the Portuguese FA:


"Given the dramatic events of yesterday, in these difficult times to allow mass events to take place safely and given the terror level 4 at national level, the game against Portugal will not take place in Brussels next Tuesday. This was decided today in coordination with the authorities and the Portuguese Football Federation.

"The Board of Directors of the Belgian FA has, in agreement with the national coach and coaching staff, decided to accept the proposal of the Portuguese Football Federation to play this match in Leiria, on the same day and at the same time, Tuesday, March 29 at 20:45 (Belgian time)."

The national team had also cancelled Tuesday's training session in wake of the attacks and as a mark of respect for the victims.


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