January Transfer Window 2023

[TheBigIguana]

If we’re talking stats I can confirm that all shots that are blocked successfully have an xG of zero so until we talk about conceding close to the most amount of goals in the league, shots are irrelevant.

Also your first sentence is very silly, if you don’t know what I’m saying how can you say it’s wrong.

It’s my belief that you are wrong saying that conceding shots that are blocked is bad defending. In fact, next time one of our defenders blocks an effort look out for Pickford giving them a little low five which happens regularly because they’ve done some good defending.

Conceding shots is bad. The block happens after the shot. You don't concede blocked shots. That's not the order of events.

 

[Shibbywiggles]

When playing it can make sense to invite the opposition to shoot knowing you can block it. Its not a negative at all

See I know that because I played holding midfield for six years at the highest level in my county and filled in at center back for a few games a season too.

A similar thing is one of my three coaches used to fume at me for not throwing myself at every header when what I did instead was put off the target man so they didn’t get it and then the ball went to our keeper because nobody won it. There’d be a stat saying I didn’t win my arial duel, but the truth is I ensured the keeper had a nice easy catch instead of winning a pressure header that could’ve gone back to the opposition.

 

[bluesb1970]

That was Bebeto I think?

Wa-was it?

 

[Shibbywiggles]

Conceding shots is bad. The block happens after the shot. You don't concede blocked shots. That's not the order of events.

Your logic is great because now I can say taking shots is bad.
Missing happens after you take a shot.
Therefore you shouldn’t take shots.

 

[TheBigIguana]

Your logic is great because now I can say taking shots is bad.
Missing happens after you take a shot.
Therefore you shouldn’t take shots.

Missing isn't another action by another player so it pretty clearly isn't the same thing.

But as I said from the start you were never serious.

 

[perth_blue]

Just what we need.

Might be how we can pocket some coin

Why are you concerned about this? It’s exactly what a club in our position should be doing, signing players with big potential and ambition that we can move on for a profit in the future. Signing players on a downward trajectory who are just happy to hang around for 5 years picking up a wage is exactly how you end up in the financial mess we’re currently in.

100%.

 

[dutchblue54]

Bring back Bernard.

Miss the little guy. Needed more end product but had so much technical ability and wasnt frightened to take a player on or retain possesion with quick feet.

A very romantic view, but i do miss him.

thank god you are not in charge of our recruitment lol. Remember no end product, pushed off the ball too easily, robbing us of 120 grand a week.

 

[Brett Angell Delight]

Defender stats don't matter. If you're leading the league in blocks you're also leading the league in letting players shoot which is bad defending.

Our defense is going to regress at some point (it's already started a little) and people will act shocked. It shouldn't be shocking.

I get your point but I’d argue it shows deep defending, not necessarily bad defending. Restricting teams to primarily long shots, a lot of which will be blocked, is not in itself a bad tactic. The issue we have is that we’re left with very little wiggle room.

Our new midfield started off looking great and ended pre-WC looking decidedly poo. Carry on like that and our defence quickly becomes overwhelmed and the shots allowed start to become higher percentage than 30 yard pot shots, and we’ll inevitably end up conceding numbers more in line with the shots against figure.

TL;DR: We still have a crap midfield, somehow.

 

[TheBigIguana]

I get your point but I’d argue it shows deep defending, not necessarily bad defending. Restricting teams to primarily long shots, a lot of which will be blocked, is not in itself a bad tactic. The issue we have is that we’re left with very little wiggle room.

Our new midfield started off looking great and ended pre-WC looking decidedly poo. Carry on like that and our defence quickly becomes overwhelmed and the shots allowed start to become higher percentage than 30 yard pot shots, and we’ll inevitably end up conceding numbers more in line with the shots against figure.

TL;DR: We still have a crap midfield, somehow.

I actually don't think it's all that much of a mystery.

 

[Brett Angell Delight]

I actually don't think it's all that much of a mystery.

They started off looking good. It’s like we’ve actually coached the goodness out of them in the short time we’ve had them.

 

[Shibbywiggles]

Missing isn't another action by another player so it pretty clearly isn't the same thing.

But as I said from the start you were never serious.

You know what, I’m serious now, let me try and write it out more coherently for you.

We all slam Gordon and Gray for taking shots they’re never going to score.

You’re saying that allowing the opposition to shoot from a position they’re unlikely to score from is bad.

I’m saying it’s a calculated method and very sensible for defenders like Coady and Tarkowski who aren’t blessed with pace.

If they try and dispossess a player, that player could be fast and/or tricky and go by them or give away a free kick/pen.

Instead, they hold their ground and give the player a choice to try and go through or round them, or pass backwards or sideways and start again.

I think that’s good defending and when the player frustratedly takes a pot shot like Gordon and Gray often do, that is bad attacking and good defending.

 

[TheBigIguana]

They started off looking good. It’s like we’ve actually coached the goodness out of them in the short time we’ve had them.

They still are good individually, but they're not so good as to overcome the broken set up.

 

[TheBigIguana]

You know what, I’m serious now, let me try and write it out more coherently for you.

We all slam Gordon and Gray for taking shots they’re never going to score.

You’re saying that allowing the opposition to shoot from a position they’re unlikely to score from is bad.

I’m saying it’s a calculated method and very sensible for defenders like Coady and Tarkowski who aren’t blessed with pace.

If they try and dispossess a player, that player could be fast and/or tricky and go by them or give away a free kick/pen.

Instead, they hold their ground and give the player a choice to try and go through or round them, or pass backwards or sideways and start again.

I think that’s good defending and when the player frustratedly takes a pot shot like Gordon and Gray often do, that is bad attacking and good defending.

Ok this is kind of fair, what I'd say though is that the shots we give up are not always as low percentage as you're saying.

And yeah Gordon and Gray stink and take shots that are terrible decisions. I don't think we're conceding nearly as many of those as you're saying we are though. There have been games like that, I think Newcastle was one maybe, but there have also been games like Fulham, which we got away with, where they had 17 (!!!) shots inside our penalty area.

 

[Shibbywiggles]

Ok this is kind of fair, what I'd say though is that the shots we give up are not always as low percentage as you're saying.

And yeah Gordon and Gray stink and take shots that are terrible decisions. I don't think we're conceding nearly as many of those as you're saying we are though. There have been games like that, I think Newcastle was one maybe, but there have also been games like Fulham, which we got away with, where they had 17 (!!!) shots inside our penalty area.

Ok but re-watch the Fulham game because statistically yes you’re right, but where were the clear chances? Mitrovic didn’t have a total shocker or miss any clear cut chances, he just took snap shots and missed half chances.

The only game we got amazingly lucky on was the draw against Brentford where we got battered and would’ve conceded about 5 on another day.

I don’t think we’re conceding more big chances than other teams, which is backed up by us having a decent goals conceded stat rather than looking at number of shots.

 

[TheBigIguana]

Ok but re-watch the Fulham game because statistically yes you’re right, but where were the clear chances? Mitrovic didn’t have a total shocker or miss any clear cut chances, he just took snap shots and missed half chances.

The only game we got amazingly lucky on was the draw against Brentford where we got battered and would’ve conceded about 5 on another day.

I don’t think we’re conceding more big chances than other teams, which is backed up by us having a decent goals conceded stat rather than looking at number of shots.

They did have one big chance I think but that's not really the point so much as an accumulation of ok shots is going to cost you eventually. An accumulation of bad shots is whatever, we're venturing too close to shots where some of them are going to go in sometimes and it'll cost you. We're kind of in the middle on that which is absolutely fine if you're also not conceding a ton of shots. When you are conceding a ton being in the middle can end up bad.

We're not conceding goals through a combination of good goalkeeping (which no matter how highly you rate Pickford was always going to and already has started to come back to Earth), good luck and a healthy dose of determination from our defenders. I don't think all of that is going to sustain. Which is why I'd like us to preemptively emphasize playing in better areas, pressing in a real system and keeping the ball away from our defensive third so that teams don't constantly have the ability to take shots, regardless of quality.