2022/23 Jordan Pickford

[tommytowne]

If he does end up going somewhere like United, Spurs, or Chelsea, it will be funny to watch all the media criticisms of him just disappear

Guaranteed

 

[Milk]

Pickford is, in my opinion, the joint 3rd best keeper I've seen at Everton. Southall at no. 1 is a given, West for me, shades number 2 and I think Pickford and Martyn are just about even for number 3. Now when you take into account that the two ahead of him are Neville Southall and Gordon West, that's no mean achievement. I think Pickford should be club captain next season and see out his career here. He really seems to have bought into the whole Everton thing.

Joyce in todays Times suggesting that Pickford is more than happy here


Probably because we are so rubbish he gets to show his skill set on a regular basis

 

[Zatara]

It what world is a 29 year old keeper old? He has at least 6 or 7 years of prime left, and could literally play in the premier league until he's 40

He is a player who relies on agility and reflexes. Those keepers dont typically last as long as the giants who rely on positioning etc.

Lets say he has 5 years left which takes him to 34. Then he begins to lose his reflexes and agility.

is it worth say £50mil to hold onto him for 5 seasons? For me, its a big fee for a 29 year old and i would cash in and replace with an u23 player.

He's looking it through the lens of Pickford's age two years down the road with two years remaining under contract, the likely price now and the likely price later.

It's true that keeping Pickford has a hidden cost of asset depreciation. The question is, and always should be, whether it's worthwhile to run that hidden cost rather than make a change. Keeping him is a low-risk move. Selling him takes on the risk of a new keeper not working out in return for the opportunity to solve deep problems elsewhere in the squad.

I think the smart play is to sell later if we sell, and accept that it will take a couple of seasons to plug all the leaks in the boat. I see where he's coming from, though.

If we sold when hes 31 what do we get say £20mil ?

That would be a £30mil loss in 2 seasons.

On the other hand we sell now and the keeper we sign would see their value increase...and the additional funds from the sale benefiting us in another outfield position.

 

[Goat]

He is a player who relies on agility and reflexes. Those keepers dont typically last as long as the giants who rely on positioning etc.

Lets say he has 5 years left which takes him to 34. Then he begins to lose his reflexes and agility.

is it worth say £50mil to hold onto him for 5 seasons? For me, its a big fee for a 29 year old and i would cash in and replace with an u23 player.



If we sold when hes 31 what do we get say £20mil ?

That would be a £30mil loss in 2 seasons.

On the other hand we sell now and the keeper we sign would see their value increase...and the additional funds from the sale benefiting us in another outfield position.

I personally think we would struggle to get 50m for him.

 

[nonstripdzebra]

He's looking it through the lens of Pickford's age two years down the road with two years remaining under contract, the likely price now and the likely price later.

It's true that keeping Pickford has a hidden cost of asset depreciation. The question is, and always should be, whether it's worthwhile to run that hidden cost rather than make a change. Keeping him is a low-risk move. Selling him takes on the risk of a new keeper not working out in return for the opportunity to solve deep problems elsewhere in the squad.

I think the smart play is to sell later if we sell, and accept that it will take a couple of seasons to plug all the leaks in the boat. I see where he's coming from, though.

This is well said. In almost all facets I think the club has to factor appreciation and sell at peak value as we have limited funds and are in a league position where thats necessary. That said I think keeper is unique considering it's longevity.

Pickford has been this clubs most important player, and likely best this season. He is in a position that ages differently and is often volatile to replace. Him loosing value or not garnering a return should also account he has been a better player then the rest of this squad and our league position finishes. Ultimately his initial fee is irrelevant personally as keepers are not as easily turned over and sold on. We have had a 40 million dollar level keeper i'd argue for 3 years now.

I go both ways. I think the current GK market would actually present some sound and unique replacements in potential but also immediate assurance. Alban Lafont, Lucas Chevalier, Michele Di Gregorio and possibly Bart Verbruggen to name a few I think could possibly fit that vein. I also think the context of United, Spurs and Chelsea all likely having Pickford #1 on their big boards is also worth acknowledging. He will likely have inflated value specifically this summer. After that we may just ride it out to the sun.

But unlike Richy, Digne, Lukaku and what should have been factored in DCL, I do think Pickford is worthy of caution in moving on then those others. That said this club has a problem with selling players too late in their Everton cycle. All those names were not sold at peak value (Gordon noted a possible exception) and it reflects in the funds that were there for their replacements which leaves us a goal away from relegation in 2023.

I lean towards sell but the reinvestment has to be B+ or better in turn. That ultimately may be necessary for survival regardless. But I understand both sides.

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

He is a player who relies on agility and reflexes. Those keepers dont typically last as long as the giants who rely on positioning etc.

Lets say he has 5 years left which takes him to 34. Then he begins to lose his reflexes and agility.

is it worth say £50mil to hold onto him for 5 seasons? For me, its a big fee for a 29 year old and i would cash in and replace with an u23 player.



If we sold when hes 31 what do we get say £20mil ?

That would be a £30mil loss in 2 seasons.

On the other hand we sell now and the keeper we sign would see their value increase...and the additional funds from the sale benefiting us in another outfield position.

Given my argument that he's a known commodity and has been one of the main reasons, compared to the alternatives, that we've been able to stay up these past couple of seasons, I'd argue he is priceless.

Let's say we sell him for 50 million. That means we need to find his replacement, which will cost something. Knowing us it'll cost us 25 million. Is that worth the risk given our recent recruitment history?

I just don't think the juice is going to be worth the squeeze, relative to risk/reward, selling Pickford before his legs fall off.

Would it be great to make a profit on him and replace him with some cheaper unknown? Sure. But there's a ton of risk there. We need to look no further than what happened with Leicester letting Schmeichel walk and replacing him with Ward to see the very real, tangible risk there.

 

[Martin Alvito]

He is a player who relies on agility and reflexes. Those keepers dont typically last as long as the giants who rely on positioning etc.

Lets say he has 5 years left which takes him to 34. Then he begins to lose his reflexes and agility.

is it worth say £50mil to hold onto him for 5 seasons? For me, its a big fee for a 29 year old and i would cash in and replace with an u23 player.



If we sold when hes 31 what do we get say £20mil ?

That would be a £30mil loss in 2 seasons.

On the other hand we sell now and the keeper we sign would see their value increase...and the additional funds from the sale benefiting us in another outfield position.

I doubt his value declines that much since he's a keeper, but we're probably looking at 10-15 million pounds off the top. Could be more what you're thinking, if it's clear he's starting to slip two years from now, has injuries, or experiences any of the other risks associated with carrying the asset on the books.

Against that, there's the expected value hit on the relegation side with the risk of attendant revenue lost. Odds are that it won't be a seamless transition, no matter how good the replacement, and our margin for error is slim. The question then becomes what we're buying, and how hard we're willing to mortgage to do it.

The better the summer market ends up looking for our needs, the more it makes sense to pull the trigger on this one. It also depends on just how boned we are when it comes to funds with which to patch holes. If we punch another sizable hole in the boat to patch several, with the understanding that the new one should patch itself over time, it could easily be worth if we can't otherwise apply patches.

I think the dead wages coming off in 2024 and the revenue bump from BMD in '24-'25 dictate conservative play now, but YMMV on risk management. Both risk preference and a lot of subjective evaluation go into making this call, as well as information we cannot have as outsiders. Fair play to you for raising this alternative as an option.

 

[Zatara]

I personally think we would struggle to get 50m for him.

Depends if its Spurs, United or Chelsea as they would have the dough.

This is well said. In almost all facets I think the club has to factor appreciation and sell at peak value as we have limited funds and are in a league position where thats necessary. That said I think keeper is unique considering it's longevity.

Pickford has been this clubs most important player, and likely best this season. He is in a position that ages differently and is often volatile to replace. Him loosing value or not garnering a return should also account he has been a better player then the rest of this squad and our league position finishes. Ultimately his initial fee is irrelevant personally as keepers are not as easily turned over and sold on. We have had a 40 million dollar level keeper i'd argue for 3 years now.

I go both ways. I think the current GK market would actually present some sound and unique replacements in potential but also immediate assurance. Alban Lafont, Lucas Chevalier, Michele Di Gregorio and possibly Bart Verbruggen to name a few I think could possibly fit that vein. I also think the context of United, Spurs and Chelsea all likely having Pickford #1 on their big boards is also worth acknowledging. He will likely have inflated value specifically this summer. After that we may just ride it out to the sun.

But unlike Richy, Digne, Lukaku and what should have been factored in DCL, I do think Pickford is worthy of caution in moving on then those others. That said this club has a problem with selling players too late in their Everton cycle. All those names were not sold at peak value (Gordon noted a possible exception) and it reflects in the funds that were there for their replacements which leaves us a goal away from relegation in 2023.

I lean towards sell but the reinvestment has to be B+ or better in turn. That ultimately may be necessary for survival regardless. But I understand both sides.

Verbruggen or Mamardashvili for me.

Given my argument that he's a known commodity and has been one of the main reasons, compared to the alternatives, that we've been able to stay up these past couple of seasons, I'd argue he is priceless.

Let's say we sell him for 50 million. That means we need to find his replacement, which will cost something. Knowing us it'll cost us 25 million. Is that worth the risk given our recent recruitment history?

I just don't think the juice is going to be worth the squeeze, relative to risk/reward, selling Pickford before his legs fall off.

Would it be great to make a profit on him and replace him with some cheaper unknown? Sure. But there's a ton of risk there. We need to look no further than what happened with Leicester letting Schmeichel walk and replacing him with Ward to see the very real, tangible risk there.

Unknowns in this league perhaps but two extremely highly rated keepers. Theyre as close to riskless as i could think of.

I doubt his value declines that much since he's a keeper, but we're probably looking at 10-15 million pounds off the top. Could be more what you're thinking, if it's clear he's starting to slip two years from now, has injuries, or experiences any of the other risks associated with carrying the asset on the books.

Against that, there's the expected value hit on the relegation side with the risk of attendant revenue lost. Odds are that it won't be a seamless transition, no matter how good the replacement, and our margin for error is slim. The question then becomes what we're buying, and how hard we're willing to mortgage to do it.

The better the summer market ends up looking for our needs, the more it makes sense to pull the trigger on this one. It also depends on just how boned we are when it comes to funds with which to patch holes. If we punch another sizable hole in the boat to patch several, with the understanding that the new one should patch itself over time, it could easily be worth if we can't otherwise apply patches.

I think the dead wages coming off in 2024 and the revenue bump from BMD in '24-'25 dictate conservative play now, but YMMV on risk management. Both risk preference and a lot of subjective evaluation go into making this call, as well as information we cannot have as outsiders. Fair play to you for raising this alternative as an option.

I think if we also look at someone like Coleman. If we could have sold him 5 years ago for £50mil should we have done so? Or are we ok with a 34 year old backup right back we wont be able to sell ?

If someone came in for him at £50mil whose to say the replacement isnt world class in a season or two?

Thats the level we need to aspire to.

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

Depends if its Spurs, United or Chelsea as they would have the dough.



Verbruggen or Mamardashvili for me.




Unknowns in this league perhaps but two extremely highly rated keepers. Theyre as close to riskless as i could think of.



I think if we also look at someone like Coleman. If we could have sold him 5 years ago for £50mil should we have done so? Or are we ok with a 34 year old backup right back we wont be able to sell ?

If someone came in for him at £50mil whose to say the replacement isnt world class in a season or two?

Thats the level we need to aspire to.

The reality is we've been relegation fodder going on two straight seasons.

We need to walk first before we can run. We need to stabilise the club and become comfortably mid table first. Then that's something we can build on

Leicester, and to a lesser extent Leeds, went down this season because of terrible GK play

 

[badloaf]

He is a player who relies on agility and reflexes. Those keepers dont typically last as long as the giants who rely on positioning etc.

Lets say he has 5 years left which takes him to 34. Then he begins to lose his reflexes and agility.

is it worth say £50mil to hold onto him for 5 seasons? For me, its a big fee for a 29 year old and i would cash in and replace with an u23 player.



If we sold when hes 31 what do we get say £20mil ?

That would be a £30mil loss in 2 seasons.

On the other hand we sell now and the keeper we sign would see their value increase...and the additional funds from the sale benefiting us in another outfield position.

Why would the keeper we sign see their value increase? We’ve got a squad of players most of whom are worth less than we paid for them. And some of them are just worthless.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Depends if its Spurs, United or Chelsea as they would have the dough.



Verbruggen or Mamardashvili for me.




Unknowns in this league perhaps but two extremely highly rated keepers. Theyre as close to riskless as i could think of.



I think if we also look at someone like Coleman. If we could have sold him 5 years ago for £50mil should we have done so? Or are we ok with a 34 year old backup right back we wont be able to sell ?

If someone came in for him at £50mil whose to say the replacement isnt world class in a season or two?

Thats the level we need to aspire to.

In full agreement on your general point. I just question whether this is the moment to make that shift, with our backs against the wall and in possession of the knowledge that substantial money will free up in the next two windows.

I would be far more comfortable making that gamble in a year or two, assuming we've righted the ship in the opponent's end. Odds are we can ship sixty five and get away with it if the replacement GK dice come up snake eyes, provided we score forty-five. I don't love the idea of going into a season needing to pick up the pace in attack and tread water at the back with a brand-new stopper.

 

[Rodebaard]

In full agreement on your general point. I just question whether this is the moment to make that shift, with our backs against the wall and in possession of the knowledge that substantial money will free up in the next two windows.

I would be far more comfortable making that gamble in a year or two, assuming we've righted the ship in the opponent's end. Odds are we can ship sixty five and get away with it if the replacement GK dice come up snake eyes, provided we score forty-five. I don't love the idea of going into a season needing to pick up the pace in attack and tread water at the back with a brand-new stopper.

Yep, agree. You could argue that Leicester went down (at least partially) because of their keeper situation. That saying, if we did get a good offer for him, then I suppose we should take it... His stock is probably as high as it'll ever be. But it'd have to be a good enough wedge that we could strengthen elsewhere, and have a decent replacement lined up. He's pretty eratic as a keeper, scares me to death on crosses, and can't set up a wall, but he's made a ton of excellent saves over the past few years. It's easy to forget how important a decent keeper is.

 

[Blue83]

and could literally play in the premier league until he's 40

He's good but nowhere near Buffon levels of good where he's still capable at 40, he's probably got 5 or 6 years left before he drops down a tier or takes a backseat as a reserve

 

[Zatara]

He's good but nowhere near Buffon levels of good where he's still capable at 40, he's probably got 5 or 6 years left before he drops down a tier or takes a backseat as a reserve

Thats exactly what I think.

 

[CARLOS SAFC]

Bollocks how well do you know him? Do you know him to let on to?

I know his brother better but I know him relatively well