I think we are 5 players, Confidence and 3 years away from the Top 4:
I mean that we need upgrades or replacements in 5 different players, the type of standard you'd find in the current top 4. Centre back, centre midfield, and up front and 2 'squad players' who would be upgrades on Niasse, etc. To clarify, I mean that Baines, Keane, Gana, Schneiderlin, Tosun for instance, would be reserves in the top 4 teams, not first choice. Our current crop of young English players could become those upgrades in 2 years, if they fulfil potential, and so could Bernard, Richarlison, Holgate and Pickford of course.
Confidence: A cup win, a 5th place finish or a runners up finish in a cup every year for three years, will give us confidence that we can do it. Need one of this things every year.
3 years - consistent top 5 / SF or F cup runs for 3 years in ar ow
If all of these things happened over three years, we could say that we are closer to the top 4!